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孟加拉国对美采购热潮未能带来出口收益Bangladesh's US buying spree fails to bring export benefit

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达卡——2月签署贸易协议后,孟加拉斯坦加大了对美国商品的采购,已就波音飞机、液化天然气和谷物等签署价值数十亿美元的采购协议,但在协议等待落实之际,孟加拉斯坦对美出口尚未出现实质性增长。

DHAKA -- Bangladesh has ramped up purchases of U.S. goods in the wake of a trade agreement signed in February, having signed purchasing agreements worth billions of dollars for Boeing aircraft, liquefied natural gas and grains, but its exports in the other direction have yet to see a substantial boost as it waits for the trade pact to be implemented.

2月,在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对孟加拉斯坦加征高额关税后,达卡和华盛顿达成了互惠贸易协议,不过美国法院此后削弱了这些关税的原有依据。该协议仍等待双方落实,相关条款何时生效尚不明确。

In February, Dhaka and Washington reached the agreement on reciprocal trade following U.S. President Donald Trump's steep tariffs on Bangladesh, although the underlying basis of these duties has since been undermined by U.S. courts. The deal is awaiting implementation by both sides, and the timeline for when the provisions will come into effect remain unclear.

尽管如此,据这个南亚国家的国家税收委员会数据,2月至7月,美国对孟加拉斯坦出口同比增长77%,达到23亿美元;反方向的贸易额仅增长6.25%,达到47.6亿美元。孟加拉斯坦银行数据显示,1月至6月,孟加拉斯坦从美国进口的19亿美元商品中,矿物燃料、棉花以及油籽、谷物和相关产品这三大类商品占比约为69%。

Nonetheless, for the February-July period, U.S. exports to Bangladesh surged 77% year-on-year to $2.3 billion, according to data from the South Asian nation's National Board of Revenue, while trade in the opposite direction rose by a mere 6.25% to $4.76 billion. According to Bangladesh Bank data, the top three products -- mineral fuels, cotton and oil seeds, grains and related products -- made up about 69% of Bangladesh's $1.9 billion in imports from the U.S. between January and June.

在国营航空公司孟加拉斯坦比曼航空9月23日与波音签署补充协议、增购11架飞机(价格未披露)后,孟加拉斯坦与美国的贸易又得到进一步提振,使其今年订购的波音飞机总数增至25架。今年4月,该公司曾订购14架波音飞机,价值37亿美元,计划于2031年11月至2035年10月期间交付。孟加拉斯坦还承诺采购价值180亿美元的液化天然气和农产品。

Trade with the U.S. has been given a further boost after flag carrier Biman Bangladesh Airlines signed a supplementary agreement with Boeing on Sept. 23 for an additional 11 aircraft for an undisclosed price, bringing Bangladesh's Boeing order book this year to 25 aircraft. In April, it had ordered 14 aircraft for $3.7 billion, with deliveries scheduled between November 2031 and October 2035. Bangladesh has also committed to LNG and agricultural purchases worth $18 billion.

在回答关于“尽管贸易协定尚未生效,政府为何仍从美国增加进口”的问题时,商务部长坎达克尔·阿卜杜勒·穆克塔迪尔表示,孟加拉国之所以增加小麦、食用油、液化天然气(LNG)、棉花等商品的进口,是因为这些都是该国必须从外部采购的必需品。

Responding to a question about why the government is buying more from the U.S. despite the trade deal not being in force, Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir said Bangladesh is increasing imports of wheat, edible oil, LNG, cotton and similar goods because these are essential commodities that Bangladesh has to import from one source or another regardless.

另一方面,根据美国纺织与服装局(OTEXA)的数据,2月至7月期间,孟加拉国对美国的制成品出口额同比下降了7.55%;美国仍是孟加拉国最重要的制成品出口市场。

In the other direction, Bangladesh's exports to the U.S. of ready-made garments -- one of the country's most important sectors -- actually fell 7.55% year-on-year in the February-July period, according to the U.S. Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA).

OTEXA还指出,尽管全球制成品的平均价格小幅上涨至每平方米3.17美元,但孟加拉国出口产品的平均单价却降至每平方米3.05美元,这表明尽管买家在其他市场的购买价格略有提高,孟加拉国的出口竞争力仍在下降。

The U.S. is Bangladesh's single largest ready-made garment destination. The average unit price of Bangladeshi garments on the market slipped to $3.05 per square meter equivalent in the January-July period, even as the global average price edged up to $3.17, according to OTEXA, indicating Bangladesh lost ground despite buyers paying marginally more on average elsewhere.

根据2月9日签署的贸易协定,孟加拉国必须立即或在未来5至10年内取消对几乎所有美国商品的关税;而美国方面并未对孟加拉国的进口商品提供任何相应的关税减免优惠。

Under the trade agreement signed on Feb. 9, Bangladesh must eliminate duties on nearly all U.S. goods immediately or within five to 10 years, while the US offers no reciprocal guarantees on purchases.

“这项贸易协定是在不平等的谈判中达成的,孟加拉国是在面临美国对其最大出口市场征收高额关税的威胁下进行谈判的,”发展研究与政策整合智库的主席穆罕默德·阿卜杜勒·拉扎克表示。“该协定的主要好处仅在于为孟加拉国提供了一定的保护——即双方互相征收19%的关税,从而避免了更严厉的关税措施。”然而,这一好处很快就被打破了:2月20日,美国最高法院废除了根据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收的关税,使得原本规定的19%关税变得毫无意义。

"The [deal] emerged from an unequal negotiation, with Bangladesh negotiating under the threat of steep U.S. tariffs against its largest export market," said Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development think tank. "Its main gain was defensive: a 19% reciprocal tariff avoiding harsher rates." However, that benefit soon became moot. On Feb. 20, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, making the 19% rate irrelevant.

目前,美国基于对孟加拉国纺织业使用美国原材料情况的调查,继续对孟加拉国产品征收10%的关税,不过这一关税存在一定的豁免条款,并对某些纺织品和服装产品设定了关税配额。

Currently, the U.S. is imposing a 10% levy, based on a forced-labor investigation, subject to certain exemptions and planned tariff-rate quotas for textiles and apparel using U.S. inputs.

根据该贸易协定第5.3条,美国承诺建立一种机制,允许孟加拉国的部分纺织品和服装(例如使用美国生产的棉花和人造纤维制造的服装)以零互惠关税税率进入美国市场。

Under Article 5.3 of the trade deal, the U.S. committed to establishing a mechanism allowing certain textile and apparel goods from Bangladesh -- for example, garments manufactured using U.S.-produced cotton and man-made fiber -- to enter the American market at a zero reciprocal tariff rate.

成衣制造商Sparrow Group的总经理肖冯·伊斯兰(Shovon Islam)表示,目前孟加拉国的棉制品进入美国市场需缴纳总计25%的关税,合成纤维产品的关税更高,达到39%至40%。他说,孟加拉国的出口商不得不承担部分互惠关税,因此,为了进入美国市场,服装价格不得不有所下调。

Bangladesh currently faces a combined 25% levy on cotton products and a steeper 39% to 40% levy on synthetic products to enter the U.S. market, said Shovon Islam, managing director of Sparrow Group, a ready-made garment manufacturer. Bangladeshi exporters had to bear part of the reciprocal tariff, and as a result, garment prices had to be reduced somewhat for the U.S. market, he said.

新奥尔良大学经济学家兼金融学教授穆罕默德·卡比尔·哈桑(Mohammad Kabir Hassan)表示:“孟加拉国应将落实第5.3条作为当前外交和贸易政策的优先事项。达卡方面应要求美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)提供明确的实施时间表,以及确定免税配额的公式、合格产品清单、原产地规则和海关程序。”亚洲开发银行研究所前高级顾问、经济学家M.G.奎布里亚(M.G. Quibria)指出,购买更多的液化天然气或棉花并不能自动使孟加拉国获得法律承诺之外的关税优惠,这意味着这些采购是一种筹码。

"Bangladesh should make implementation of Article 5.3 an immediate diplomatic and trade policy priority," said Mohammad Kabir Hassan, an economist and professor of finance at the University of New Orleans. "Dhaka should ask the USTR (United States Trade Representative) for a clear implementation timetable, the formula for determining the duty-free quota, eligible products, rules of origin and customs procedures." Buying more LNG or cotton doesn't automatically entitle Bangladesh to tariff concessions beyond what's legally committed, said M.G. Quibria, an economist and former senior adviser at the Asian Development Bank Institute, meaning these purchases are leverage.

他补充说,鉴于美国更广泛的关税制度随后发生的变化,孟加拉国应敦促华盛顿明确第5.3条在实践中究竟免除了哪些关税负担,以便明确该优惠措施的实际商业价值。

Bangladesh should press Washington to clarify exactly what tariff burden Article 5.3 removes in practice, given subsequent changes to the broader U.S. tariff regime, so the concession's real commercial value is clear, he added.

奎布里亚表示:“孟加拉国应该提出这些采购事宜,但要将其表述为互惠,而不是粗糙的等价交换:达卡正在为美国生产商提供可衡量的市场准入和采购机会,因此华盛顿现在也应落实可衡量的纺织品优惠措施——即确定的时间表以及足够大且可预测的优惠额度。”

"Bangladesh should raise these purchases, but frame it as reciprocity, not a crude quid pro quo: Dhaka is delivering measurable market access and purchases for U.S. producers, so Washington should now deliver measurable implementation of the textile concession -- a firm timetable and a sufficiently large, predictable preferential volume," Quibria said.

随着美国最高法院推翻了那些促使贸易协议得以达成的高关税措施,一些人开始质疑孟加拉国是否真的应该遵守该协议。同样与华盛顿签署了贸易协议的马来西亚在3月份宣布该协议“无效”。然而,孟加拉国至今尚未采取任何类似行动。

With the U.S. Supreme Court undermining the higher tariffs that prompted the trade agreement, some have questioned whether Bangladesh should even abide by it. Malaysia, which had also signed a trade deal with Washington, declared the agreement "null and void" in March. Bangladesh, however, has initiated no similar action.

“实际上,鉴于美国市场(尤其是对于制衣行业而言)的重要性,以及两国之间更广泛的外交关系,退出与美国签订的贸易协议将极其困难,”阿卜杜勒·拉扎克(Abdur Razzaque)表示。卡尼兹·法蒂玛(Kaniz Fatima)是一名撰稿人。

"In practical terms, walking away from an agreement with the United States would also be extremely difficult given the importance of the U.S. market, particularly for [ready-made garments], and the wider diplomatic relationship," Abdur Razzaque said. Kaniz Fatima is a contributing writer.