全球人工智能投资周期有望在2027年之前保持强劲，并可能延续至2028年，而印度私营银行可能成为未来6至12个月内最佳投资机会之一，Neuberger Berman董事总经理兼投资组合经理Conrad Saldanha表示。聚焦AI Saldanha称，头部AI企业的持续支出将支撑半导体制造商、零部件供应商及更广泛的科技公司。同时，他认为在经历一段表现不佳的时期后，印度银行业具有投资价值，特别是如果关税不确定性缓解的话。
The global artificial intelligence investment cycle is likely to remain strong through 2027 and potentially into 2028, while Indian private sector banks could emerge as one of the best investment opportunities over the next six to 12 months, according to Conrad Saldanha, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman.AI IN FOCUS Saldanha said continued spending by leading AI companies should support semiconductor manufacturers, component suppliers and broader technology companies. At the same time, he believes India's banking sector offers value after a period of underperformance, especially if uncertainty around tariffs eases."I think the capex runway definitely into 2027 and potentially into 2028 looks pretty good," Saldanha said.
“我认为资本支出的跑道肯定延伸至2027年，并可能延伸至2028年，前景看起来相当不错，”Saldanha表示。“所以，这对半导体、零部件以及整个科技领域都是利好。”
"So, it's good for the semiconductors, the components, and generally the tech space."
Firstsource Solutions、Solar Industries领涨Nifty 500成分股，Max Healthcare、BSE开盘下跌他表示，关于AI投资可能因监管或内部限制而放缓的担忧已有所缓解，而中美之间的竞争继续推动着对大语言模型和AI基础设施的支出。
Firstsource Solutions, Solar Industries lead Nifty 500 gainers, Max Healthcare, BSE fall at market openHe said concerns that AI investment could slow because of regulation or internal restrictions have eased, while competition between the US and China continues to drive spending on large language models and AI infrastructure.
谈及印度，Saldanha表示，随着AI采用范围扩大，与AI基础设施相关的公司可能受益。他指出Netweb是现有受益者，并称随着AI部署拓宽，自动化、计算及电子制造公司（包括Dixon Technologies）也可能获益。
On India, Saldanha said companies linked to AI infrastructure could benefit as adoption expands. He identified Netweb as an existing beneficiary and said automation, computing and electronics manufacturing companies, including Dixon Technologies, could gain as AI deployment broadens.
不过，他提醒投资者不要盲目追逐每一只AI概念股，表示估值可能会根据AI对公司业务的贡献程度而超越基本面。这是经过编辑的访谈实录。
However, he cautioned investors against chasing every AI-related stock, saying valuations can move ahead of fundamentals depending on how much AI contributes to a company's business. This is an edited transcript of the interview.Q: Do you think this is a massive victory for big tech, at least in the near term?
问：您认为这在短期内至少是大科技公司的巨大胜利吗？因为目前没有联邦监管会拖慢创新步伐，所以它们可以全速前进。
Because there is no federal regulation for now that is going to slow down innovation, so they can go full steam ahead.
考虑到市场已分化为截然不同的赢家和输家——输家因地缘政治，赢家因AI——如果这被解读为大型科技股的胜利，这意味着什么？这是否意味着科技股反弹依然完好无损，将全速前进？
And considering the market has been divided into distinct winners and losers the losers on account of geopolitics, but the winners on account of AI if this is read as a big tech win, what does this mean? Does that mean that the tech rally is very much intact and will go ahead full steam?A: I think this is a further endorsement.
答：我认为这是进一步的背书。几周来，我们对AI略感担忧，从某种意义上说，担心其自我毁灭，以及可能受到限制，无论是内部还是外部。人们在猜测这三大巨额支出者是否存在扭曲的观点。我认为这也表明，在这场AI竞赛或超级智能竞赛中，中国没有退缩。他们在推理端展示了以显著更低价格出售token的能力，但实验室完成的重活、大语言模型（LLM）的训练将持续进行。
For a few weeks we were getting a little nervous about AI, in a sense, being self-destructive, and maybe limitations being put on it, whether internally or not. People were thinking whether there were perverse viewpoints coming from the three big spenders here. And I think it also shows that, given this AI race, or the superintelligence race, China is not backing down. They've shown that on the inference side they've managed to sell their tokens significantly cheaper, but the heavy lifting done by the labs, the LLMs, is going to continue.
资本支出在继续，目前这利好资本支出叙事，因为你确实看到了转变和一定程度的分化：风险敞口较小的超大规模数据中心运营商，相对于实验室，甚至一些资本支出大户，开始比大手笔支出者更受益。这种转变可能正变得更加均衡。
The capex continues, and for now, it's good for the capex story because you did see a shift and a bit of a bifurcation, where the hyperscalers that were less exposed versus the labs, or even some of the capex-heavy companies, were starting to benefit versus the big spenders. That shift is probably getting a little more balanced.
资本支出跑道至少延伸至2027年，甚至可能延伸至2028年，前景相当不错。因此，这对半导体、零部件以及整个科技板块都是利好。
The capex runway definitely into 2027 and potentially into 2028 looks pretty good. So, it's good for the semiconductors, the components, and generally the tech space.Q: Here in India, the frontline index has been in a downward drift for a while.
问：在印度，核心指数已经下行漂移了一段时间。原因有很多——油价、全球大规模AI交易吸走所有资金等。但是，已经出现了一些标的，人们开始整理公司名单，这些公司或许能切入AI或属于赋能者。例如高盛就发布了一份报告。出现了新名单。关键在于将这一主题串联起来，因为人们在全方位审视它，而这些股票在2026年表现非常出色。您在印度持有任何赋能者类股票吗？
It's a bunch of things—oil and the big AI trade globally sucking in all the capital, etc. But, there are names, and people are starting to put together lists of companies, which perhaps feed into AI or are enablers in that sense. Goldman, for example, came out with a report. There are new names. It's just about putting that theme together because people are looking at it in its entirety, and these stocks have done very well in 2026. Do you own any here in India, the enablers?A: Out of the enablers, I haven't gone deep into the Goldman report, but from before, I would say the likes of Netweb continue to be a beneficiary, in my mind.
答：在赋能者板块，我没有深入研究高盛那份报告，但就此前而言，我认为 Netweb 等公司仍将是受益者。您将看到更多自动化题材股和资本开支受益股从中获益。但我必须提醒您：取决于它们的业务有多少与 AI 相关，股价往往会出现过度反应。
You're going to get a few more of the automation plays, and some of the capex plays that will benefit from it. But I would caution you: depending on how much of their business is related to AI, you tend to see an overreaction in terms of the share prices.
此外，我认为随着技术向边缘端迁移、向算力端延伸，并走向更广泛的 CPU 采用，您将看到更广泛的受益者，甚至包括 Dixon 这类组装端公司。随着渗透率提高，特别是在印度背景下，它们中的许多都将开始受益。所以，目前仍处于早期阶段，但我会说，赢家是那些持续执行力强、拥有业务敞口且过往表现优异的公司。
Otherwise, I would say as it moves to the edge, as it moves into compute, and toward greater CPU adoption, you're going to see broader beneficiaries, even companies like Dixon on the assembly side. A lot of them will start to benefit as that penetration increases, especially in an Indian context. So, it's still early days, but I'd say the winners are the ones that continue to execute, have business exposure, and have delivered in the past.Q: Since you jogged my memory back to Netweb, I recall that you all were one of the few funds that actually got optimistic early, and then it served you well.
问：既然您提到了 Netweb，让我想起你们基金是极少数早早看好它并从中获益的机构之一。你们关注过我们研究的其他公司吗？比如 ESDS 这类新上市的股票。市场上议论纷纷，多空双方观点都极其极端。您怎么看？
Have you had a look at any of these other companies that we've looked at? ESDS, those kinds of stocks that got listed. There's plenty of chatter, very extreme, both on the bullish and the bearish side.
答：实话实说，我没有深入研究很多中小型新公司，部分原因是估值等因素对我们来说不合理。实话实说，我一直专注于美国龙头，尤其是台湾和韩国的公司，包括日本一些零部件厂商。这些表现都非常出色。所以，这些目前是好标的。遗憾的是，我无法对那些公司给出合格的意见。
Your take?A: To be fair, I haven't looked at a lot of the smaller, newer companies, partly because the valuations and everything else didn't make sense for us. To be fair, I've been preoccupied with the US leaders, especially those in Taiwan and Korea, including some of the Japanese names on the component side. Those have been phenomenal performers. So, these are good names for now. I cannot give you a qualified opinion on those, unfortunately.Q: With yields spiking, crude oil prices rising, the macro picture for India itself is not looking very bright.
问：随着收益率飙升、原油价格上涨，印度自身的宏观图景看起来不太乐观。您现在会如何应对印度市场？考虑到全球和国内的双重信号，是否担心会出现剧烈抛售？
How would you approach the Indian markets now? Is there a fear that we could see a very sharp sell-off, given the cues that we have both on the global and the domestic front?
全球范围内，这确实是个问题。这是一个微妙的平衡过程，收益率上升速度快于每股收益（EPS），而后者一直在增长，对吧？特别是在美国科技股推动的每股收益增长下，标普500指数整体呈现高位30%左右的增幅，这简直令人惊叹。但在某个时点，收益率上升将变得重要，并将影响估值。因此，目前每股收益增长掩盖了收益率上升的影响，尤其是在全球科技领域，但这构成了风险。
And if you're looking to buy into the Indian markets, give us a couple of ideas.A: Globally, that is an issue. It's a fine balancing act where you're looking at yields rising faster than EPS, which has been going up, right? Especially with the tech-driven EPS in the US, where you're looking at the S&P broadly posting high-30% growth numbers, which is absolutely astonishing. But at some point, the rise in yields will matter, and that will affect valuations. So, for now, EPS is overshadowing the rise in yields, especially in the tech space globally, but that is a risk.I would say for India, the underperformance is pretty stark now.
我认为印度市场的跑输表现目前非常明显。我想结合背景指出，印度实际有效汇率极具竞争力，尤其是相对于中国。因此，我认为制造业，甚至摆脱对科技的依赖，都为印度出口部门和工程产品提供了充足的动力和后劲。所以，我对这方面绝对持积极态度。
I would put that in context by noting that the Indian real effective exchange rate is very competitive, especially relative to China. So, I do think that manufacturing, and even moving away from tech, has plenty of oomph and firepower for the Indian export sector and engineered goods. So, I would definitely be positive on that.
除非我之前提到的情况发生，如果林赛·格雷厄姆法案在众议院通过后有任何结果，并对印度加征进一步关税，那可能标志着低点出现。对我来说，那将发出在印度市场（尤其是金融板块）转为看多的良好信号。当你看到贷款增长保持在十几%的水平，国内生产总值（GDP）增长依然相当强劲，我认为金融板块，特别是私营银行，估值已经变得相当便宜，坦白说，严重被低估了。
Barring something I mentioned earlier, if anything comes out of the Lindsey Graham bill that's gone through the House, and if there are any further tariffs on India, that might mark the low point. To me, that would signal a good time to get bullish on India, especially on financials. When you look at loan growth in the teens, gross domestic product growth still being pretty strong, I think the financial sector, especially the private sector banks, has become fairly cheap and very undervalued, frankly.
所以，我认为这是一个被忽视的领域。我不是在说一周或一个月，但如果非要展望未来六到十二个月，那将是我看好机会的领域。那里可能存在沮丧情绪；似乎持仓不足，我认为那里存在上行空间。完整采访请见
So, I would say that would be an area that is being ignored. I'm not talking about a week or a month, but if I had to look out over the next six to 12 months, that would be an area where I see opportunity. There is probably despondency; it seems under-owned, and I think that's where the upside is. For the full interview,