根据Natixis对数千家企业的调查以及另一份独立研究报告，中国的企业部门相比新冠疫情之前仍然较为脆弱，但凭借其丰富的能源生产能力，中国正成为全球人工智能浪潮的主要受益者。
China’s corporate sector remains considerably weaker than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, but the country is emerging as a key beneficiary of the global artificial intelligence boom thanks to its ample power capacity, according to a Natixis survey of thousands of firms and a separate research report.
这家法国银行在周二发布的最新中国企业监测报告中指出：2026年上半年，中国企业的利润率稳定在约4.5%的水平，但仍远低于全球同行业企业的近9%的利润率。报告还显示，同期中国企业的资本回报率约为6%，而全球同行业企业的资本回报率则超过了11%。这些数据是基于对约2,300家中国企业和9,000家海外企业的比较得出的。
Profit margins at Chinese firms had stabilised at about 4.5 per cent for the first half of 2026, but remained well below the nearly 9 per cent recorded by their global peers, according to the French bank’s latest China corporate monitor presented on Tuesday. Returns on capital at Chinese firms hovered at around 6 per cent in the same period, compared with more than 11 per cent globally, the report said. The findings were based on a comparison of about 2,300 Chinese firms and 9,000 overseas counterparts.
Natixis亚太地区首席经济学家Alicia Garcia Herrero指出了她所认为的“中国经济的双重性”，认为这种双重性并不仅仅体现在宏观经济数据上。“这种双重性远比简单的‘出口多、消费少’现象更为复杂，它深深植根于中国的企业治理结构之中。”她解释说：“一方面，那些停滞不前的国有企业正从现有体制中获益；另一方面，私营企业则试图在这种体制下生存下去，并通过出口来寻求发展。”
Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at Natixis, highlighted what she described as the “duality of the Chinese economy”, arguing that it extended well beyond macroeconomic data. “The duality is more complex than just exporting and not consuming,” Garcia Herrero said. “It’s really entrenched in China’s corporate governance.”It’s a tale of two cities: stagnant SOEs are benefiting from the system, while private companies are trying to survive in this system and exporting their way outAlicia Garcia Herrero, Natixis The divide was evident in the differing fortunes of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private firms, economists said.
经济学家们指出，这种差异在国有企业和私营企业的命运中表现得尤为明显：国有企业的债务负担下降速度比私营企业更快（分别为2.2%和3.2%），这使国有企业具有融资优势；然而，私营企业的盈利能力仍然更强。
The interest burden for central SOEs was falling faster than for private firms, reaching 2.2 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively, giving state firms a borrowing advantage. Yet private firms remained more profitable.
Natixis的高级经济学家Gary Ng表示，中国企业仍在收入生成和资本回报方面面临诸多挑战。不过他补充说：“中国的企业债务负担已经大幅减轻，这是一个积极的信号。”
Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, said Chinese firms continued to face challenges in revenue generation and capital returns. However, “the debt burden of Chinese firms has reduced a lot, which is a positive sign”, he added.
尽管存在这些相对劣势，Natixis认为在人工智能时代，能源供应能力是中国的一大优势。
Despite these comparative weaknesses, Natixis identified energy capacity as a major area of strength for China in the AI era.
“中国完全有能力为人工智能数据中心提供所需的电力支持，”Natixis的经济学家穆浩欣（Haoxin Mu）表示。
“China can easily power AI data centres,” said Natixis economist Haoxin Mu.
Natixis估计，人工智能数据中心的电力消耗仅占中国每年电力总消耗增长的5%左右；而在美国这一比例为48%，欧洲为28%，日本为66%。
Natixis estimated that AI data centres would account for only about 5 per cent of China’s annual increment in power consumption, compared with 48 per cent in the United States, 28 per cent in Europe, and 66 per cent in Japan.
这意味着，美国未来为满足能源需求增长所需增加的能源中，近一半可以被人工智能数据中心所消耗。
That meant nearly half of the additional energy needed to meet future demand growth in the US could be absorbed by AI data centres.
“这将会挤占其他对能源有需求的行业的发展空间，”穆浩欣指出。
“This would crowd out other sectors that need energy,” Mu said.
相比之下，加西亚·埃雷罗（Garcia Herrero）认为中国具备继续建设更多数据中心的能力。
By contrast, China had the “power capability to continue to build data centres”, said Garcia Herrero.
穆浩欣还提到，近年来中国用于人工智能数据中心的电力设备出口量大幅增长，该领域已成为中国出口增长的重要驱动力。
China’s exports of power equipment used in AI data centres had soared in recent years, Mu said, adding that the segment had become a “key engine for China’s export growth”.
加西亚·埃雷罗表示，只要没有国际上的反对或阻碍，任何从事数据中心电力设备制造的中国企业都将会取得成功。
Barring international pushback, Garcia Herrero said any Chinese company doing electrical equipment for data centres would do well. By Tim Yuen Lingk