印度经济很可能仍是增长最快的主要经济体之一。尽管油价上涨和全球债券收益率带来新的风险，出口正成为关键增长驱动力。汇丰策略师、首席印度经济学家兼东盟经济学家普兰朱尔·班达里表示，班达里预计，未来几个季度印度经济增速将从7.8%的水平放缓，但仍将保持在7%至7.5%左右。与此同时，她预计通胀将在数月内高于印度储备银行设定的容忍区间上限，促使央行在10月和12月各加息25个基点，而新的自由贸易协定可能为出口导向型增长提供新的动力。
India's economy is likely to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, with exports emerging as a key growth driver even as higher oil prices and global bond yields pose fresh risks, according to Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist and ASEAN Economist, Strategist at HSBC. Bhandari expects India's economic growth to moderate from 7.8% but remain around 7-7.5% over the next few quarters. At the same time, she expects inflation to remain above the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance band for several months, leading to 25-basis-point rate hikes in October and December, while new free trade agreements could provide another leg of export-led growth."I do think that goods exports growth are going to be a very strong driver of growth over the foreseeable future," Bhandari said.
“我确实认为，在可预见的未来，货物出口增长将成为经济增长的强劲驱动力。”班达里说。她说，尽管季风微弱且原油价格高企，印度的增长仍超出预期，这得益于政府资本支出、正规部门消费以及出口大幅增长。班达里表示，实际出口同比增长12%，名义出口增长25%，这标志着这个传统上更依赖国内需求的经济体发生了转变。
She said India's growth has surprised on the upside despite weak monsoons and elevated crude oil prices, supported by government capital expenditure, formal sector consumption and a sharp rise in exports. According to Bhandari, real exports have risen 12% year-on-year, while nominal exports have increased 25%, marking a shift for an economy that has traditionally relied more on domestic demand.
拉达克恢复直升机服务，以提升冬季交通连通性。她预计，下一阶段的出口增长将来自 recently signed trade agreements? Must translate: 最近签署的贸易协定，尤其是与消费市场而非供应国经济体达成的贸易协定。“印度—英国自由贸易协定已实施一个半至两个月，印度对英国出口环比增长12%。”她补充称，未来与欧盟达成的协议可能进一步增强印度的出口竞争力。
Ladakh resumes helicopter services to boost connectivity in winter monthsShe expects the next phase of export growth to come from recently signed trade agreements, particularly with consumer markets rather than supplier economies." The India-UK FTA has been in action for the last one-and-a-half to two months, and India's exports to the UK are rising 12% month on month," she said, adding that future agreements with the European Union could further strengthen India's export competitiveness.
尽管实体经济仍具韧性，但班达里表示，外国直接投资和外国证券投资尚未成为有实质意义的增长驱动力。
While the real economy remains resilient, Bhandari said foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment have yet to become meaningful growth drivers.
不过，她预计，随着时间推移，制造业和出口表现走强将吸引更多投资。在宏观经济方面，班达里指出两大主要风险：油价上涨以及全球金融条件收紧。汇丰大宗商品团队将2027年布伦特原油价格预测上调至每桶85美元，反映出地缘政治环境脆弱、油价可能持续波动的预期。她还警告，美国国债收益率上升叠加美元走强，可能导致包括印度在内的新兴市场金融条件收紧。
However, she expects stronger manufacturing and export performance to attract more investment over time. On the macroeconomic front, Bhandari flagged two major risks: higher oil prices and tighter global financial conditions.HSBC's commodities team has raised its 2027 Brent crude oil forecast to $85 per barrel, reflecting expectations of a fragile geopolitical environment that could keep oil prices volatile. She also warned that rising US bond yields, coupled with a strengthening dollar, could tighten financial conditions across emerging markets, including India."
“有利于印度的一点是，其经济增长强劲，”她说，“即使从这里开始再加息一点……希望这不会真的让我们进入危险区间。”班达里预计，10月、11月和12月的消费者通胀率将维持在6%以上，从而增加进一步收紧货币政策的可能性。“我的判断是，通胀率可能在较高水平持续约三个月，”她说，“10月和12月都会各加息25个基点，具体还要视情况发展，存在进一步加仓的风险。”
What helps India is that growth is strong," she said. "Even if we see a little bit of rate hikes from here... hopefully, it won't really put us into the danger zone." Bhandari expects consumer inflation to remain above 6% during October, November and December, increasing the likelihood of further monetary tightening." My sense is for about three months or so, inflation will be higher than 6%," she said. "For October and December, yes, 25 basis points in each, with risks of more depending on how things evolve."
在贸易谈判方面，班达里表示，相对于印美双边贸易协议，她对拟议中的印度—欧盟贸易协议更为乐观。她指出，过去18个月卢比兑欧元贬值约25%，一旦欧盟协议降低关税，印度出口商可能获得35%至40%的价格优势。“我非常希望这件事能在2027年年中之前实现，”班达里说。她认为，印度—欧盟贸易协议将为印度出口行业带来新一轮提振。完整采访内容，
On trade negotiations, Bhandari said she is more optimistic about the proposed India-European Union trade agreement than an India-US bilateral deal. She noted that the rupee has depreciated around 25% against the euro over the past 18 months, and once tariffs are lowered under an EU agreement, Indian exporters could enjoy a 35-40% price advantage."I am very hopeful that by the middle of 2027 it happens," Bhandari said, referring to the India-EU trade agreement, which she believes could provide another boost to India's export sector. For the full interview,