布鲁塞尔和柏林正在为与中国的关键谈判做准备；两国对北京的态度都变得越来越强硬。
Brussels and Berlin are steeling themselves for a make-or-break October with China, as the mood towards Beijing hardens in both capitals.
接下来的这个月可能会决定欧盟与中国日益紧张的关系在未来几年的走向。欧洲正准备在12月推出一系列新的措施，以应对中国的贸易行为。
The month ahead could help set the course of the increasingly thorny EU-China relationship for years to come, as Europe gears up to present a slew of new tools for countering Beijing’s trade practices, likely to come in December. Before then, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic travels to Beijing on October 8 and 9 for crucial meetings with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.
在此之前，欧盟贸易专员马罗斯·塞夫科维奇将于10月8日至9日访问北京，与中国商务部长王文涛举行重要会谈，评估自6月上次谈判以来双方在平衡贸易关系方面取得的进展。
These will assess how much progress has been made in rebalancing trade ties since the last showdown in June.
欧盟委员会要求中国对插电式混合动力汽车等产品实施自愿出口限制；这类汽车的销量在中国市场激增，而与此同时，欧洲汽车行业的处境却持续恶化。
The European Commission is pushing China to set voluntary export limits on products such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, sales of which have soared in tandem with a downturn in Europe’s own automotive fortunes.
欧盟希望遏制中国商品的进口激增势头；由于欧盟对中国的出口低迷，这导致了巨大的贸易逆差。
The bloc wants to put the brakes on a surge of Chinese imports that, combined with sluggish EU exports to China, have extended a gaping trade deficit.
官员们表示，谈判进展出人意料地顺利，下周的会谈可能会取得实质性成果。不过，北京方面已公开拒绝任何关于中国会减少出口的提议。
Officials said talks had been progressing surprisingly well, and there might well be some deliverables from next week’s meetings. Nonetheless, Beijing has publicly rebuked any suggestion that it would curb its shipments.
这些会谈的结果将为下周在布鲁塞尔举行的欧盟国家领导人峰会提供重要参考。欧盟委员会将向峰会汇报与中国的谈判结果，并有望在12月初获得批准，从而可以提出新的应对措施。
These meetings will inform the agenda of an EU national leaders’ summit in Brussels the following week. The European Commission will present the outcome of its China negotiations and expects to receive the green light to propose new weapons in early-December.
官方和外交消息人士称，欧盟峰会的正式书面结论中预计不会直接提及中国的名字，因为欧盟希望保持与北京的外交礼仪，避免引发更多冲突。
Official and diplomatic sources say China is not expected to be named in the customary written conclusions of the European Council summit, as the bloc hopes to maintain diplomatic decorum with Beijing and draw less retribution.
不过多位消息人士表示，无论下周北京会谈的结果如何，欧盟今年都将会采取强硬措施。一位官员表示：“下周的会谈不会改变既定的发展方向。”
However, multiple sources said that firm action was now expected this year, regardless of the outcome of next week’s meeting in Beijing. “Nothing is going to happen in the meeting next week that prevents this train from leaving the station,” one official source said.
在欧盟本月举行的演讲中，欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩表示：“虽然有人认为‘第二次中国冲击’即将来临，但实际上这种冲击已经发生了。”
In her state of the EU speech this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asserted that while “some say the second China shock is looming … it’s already here”.
人们普遍担心，中国的不公平贸易行为正在导致欧洲制造业中心的去工业化趋势——这一现象不仅发生在德国，也正在蔓延至中欧和东欧地区。
Fears abound that unfair Chinese trading practices are contributing to a deindustrialisation of Europe’s manufacturing heartland, including in Germany but also spreading through central and eastern Europe.
近几周来，柏林逐渐认同布鲁塞尔和巴黎长期以来所持的观点，即当前的贸易形势已难以持续，必须采取行动加以改变。
In recent weeks, Berlin has come closer to the long-standing view in Brussels and Paris that the trading situation is unsustainable and that something has to change.
一位外交人士表示：“目前形势非常紧急；德国的情况发生了巨大变化，大量工作岗位和工厂被迫关闭，企业面临着巨大的压力。”
“There is a sense of emergency … Germany has changed dramatically. There is this total destruction of employment, of factories. There is a lot of stress,” a diplomatic source said.
欧盟委员会计划采取的措施包括：要求关键行业的企业在多个国家建立至少三个供应商网络；同时设立一个援助基金，为受到中国或其他贸易伙伴报复影响的企业提供经济支持。
Among the planned tools are a diversification instrument that would oblige firms in critical sectors to have at least three suppliers spread across several countries, and a solidarity fund to compensate companies hit by retaliation from China or any other trading partner.
最近有越来越多的猜测称，欧盟还在研究第三项应对措施——该措施可能会赋予欧盟委员会广泛的关税制定权，类似于美国政府通过《301条款》所拥有的权力。
Speculation has been mounting in recent days that a third weapon is also in the works, one which could give broad tariffing powers to the European Commission, akin to those used by the US government through its Section 301 tool.
多项报告指出，欧盟委员会可能会设立一种紧急贸易机制，以便在企业的依赖程度或产能过剩达到一定临界值时，能够迅速限制从中国的进口，而无需经过传统的逐项产品审查或成员国的同意。
Various reports have described a commission-controlled emergency trade power that could rapidly restrict Chinese imports when dependency or overcapacity crosses a systemic threshold, without waiting for traditional product-by-product investigations or a positive vote from member states.
两份名为《Dossier Bruselas》和《Watching China in Europe》的时事通讯报道称，法国和德国将联合起草一份关于中国问题的文件，提议通过修改现有的反强制措施来实施这一机制。该机制将赋予欧盟广泛的报复权力，但触发这些权力需要满足严格的条件。
Two newsletters, Dossier Bruselas and Watching China in Europe, reported that a joint paper on China from France and Germany would propose achieving this through reworking the dormant anti-coercion instrument, which would provide broad retaliatory powers but have a high bar to be activated. Diplomatic sources confirmed that the paper will be presented to the European Commission before the European Council summit.
外交消息人士证实，这份文件将在欧盟理事会峰会之前提交给欧盟委员会。
“It is basically finalised … the instrument that we are calling for would allow us to cut China off from the European market within 24 hours,” one official was quoted as saying in the Watching China in Europe newsletter, written by analyst Noah Barkin.
“相关措施基本上已经敲定……我们正在推动的这套工具将使我们能够在24小时内将中国排除在欧洲市场之外，”一位官员在分析师诺亚·巴金（Noah Barkin）撰写的《在欧洲观察中国》（Watching China in Europe）通讯中如此表示。
A new 301-like tool would “risk weaponising trade policy”, the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU said in a statement on Wednesday.
中国欧盟商会周三在一份声明中表示，这种类似“301条款”（301 Tariff Act）的新贸易工具“有可能被用于政治目的（即被用作贸易政策工具）”。
“European industry has also experienced the negative impact of similar unilateral trade measures. International trade instruments should not become subject to a ‘race to the bottom’, nor should unilateral measures replace multilateral rules,” the chamber said, urging the EU to avoid “beggar thy neighbour approaches”.
该商会还强调：“欧洲工业界也曾遭受过类似单边贸易措施的负面影响。国际贸易工具不应陷入‘恶性竞争’的漩涡，单边措施也不应取代多边规则”，并呼吁欧盟避免采取“以邻为壑”的策略。
In recent weeks, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz under huge pressure from the electoral gains of the far-right Alternative for Germany, Berlin appears to have shifted decisively on China.
近几周来，由于德国极右翼政党‘德国选择党’（Alternative for Germany）在选举中取得重大胜利，默克尔政府面临巨大压力，柏林在对待中国的态度上似乎发生了明显转变。此前德国一直积极倡导与中国建立友好关系，但现在却开始支持采取保护主义措施。
Previously the main proponent of engagement, it is now signalling support for protectionist measures. On Tuesday, the German government notified the European Commission of tighter telecoms security and certification rules aimed at further restricting certain vendors’ access to German networks.
周二，德国政府向欧盟委员会通报了新的电信安全和认证法规，这些法规旨在进一步限制某些供应商进入德国电信网络。虽然华为公司并未被直接点名，但外界普遍认为该公司是主要目标。
Huawei Technologies is not named, but the Chinese company is widely understood to be the main target. Some of the country’s major business lobby groups have come out in favour of a more protectionist trade stance towards Beijing, including those that have previously warned against action.
一些德国主要商业游说团体也公开支持对中国的保护主义立场，其中包括那些此前曾反对采取此类措施的团体。
In a policy paper last week, the Federation of German Industries (BDI) – which has previously backed harsher policies on China – warned that the cost of doing nothing would outweigh that of any Chinese retaliation.
在上周发布的一份政策文件中，德国工业联合会（BDI）——该组织此前一直支持对中国的强硬政策——警告称，如果不采取任何行动，其后果将比任何可能的报复措施更为严重。
“Even if de-risking entails costs, including in the form of counter-reactions, passivity would in the long term be economically considerably more costly and irresponsible from a security policy perspective,” the BDI wrote.
“即使降低风险需要付出代价（包括可能引发的反制措施），但从经济角度来看，长期保持被动态度在成本上会更加高昂，而且从安全政策的角度来看也是不负责任的，”德国工业联合会写道。
While the group said it favoured WTO-compatible solutions, it also signalled that some flexibility might be required.
虽然该组织表示支持符合世界贸易组织（WTO）规则的解决方案，但也暗示可能需要一定的灵活性。
“Given the critical situation, particularly China’s state-induced massive overcapacities … WTO-compatible temporary defensive measures sometimes take effect too late or are insufficient,” it wrote.
“鉴于当前的严峻形势，尤其是中国政府人为造成的产能过剩问题……符合WTO规则的临时性贸易保护措施往往来得太晚，或者效果不够显著，”该组织在报告中写道。
“The advantages and disadvantages of possible instruments such as local-content requirements, tariff-rate quotas, sector-wide or even general tariffs must be carefully examined and weighed against each other.”
“诸如本地含量要求、关税配额、行业性关税乃至普遍性关税等贸易保护措施的优势与劣势必须经过仔细权衡。”
In contrast to the BDI, the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) has been a strong opponent of defensive trade action against China, with its views proving influential across the German government.
与德国汽车工业协会（VDA）不同，后者长期以来一直强烈反对针对中国的贸易保护措施，其观点在德国政府中具有很大影响力；然而现在，该协会的态度似乎发生了变化。
Now, however, it appears to have had a change of heart.
据德国商业日报《Handelsblatt》报道，VDA内部的一份文件指出：“近年来，与中国的贸易关系出现了失衡”，并且在“竞争被明显扭曲的情况下”（例如存在明显的不公平行为时），可以使用贸易保护措施。
According to German business daily Handelsblatt, an internal VDA note said “imbalances have arisen in trade with China in recent years” and that “trade defence instruments” could be used “from a certain point of distortion of competition”, for example in cases of “proven unfair practices”.
欧洲议会贸易委员会负责中国事务的首席报告员帕斯卡尔·坎芬（Pascal Canfin）在法国杂志《Le Grand Continent》上撰文称：“长期以来，德国一直反对针对中国的贸易政策采取强硬措施；但现在，德国开始改变立场了。”
“Germany, which has long been known for its opposition to a hardening of trade policy towards China, is beginning to shift its stance,” wrote Pascal Canfin, the European Parliament trade committee’s lead rapporteur on China, in an article for Le Grand Continent, a French magazine.
“2024年时还反对对电动汽车征收关税的德国，如今已愿意与法国一起讨论如何应对中国的激进产业政策。”——芬巴尔·伯明翰（Finbarr Bermingham）
“The Germany that blocked tariffs on electric vehicles in 2024 is different from the Germany that is today open to discussions, alongside France, on how to respond to China’s aggressive industrial policy.”By Finbarr Bermingham