史蒂夫·皮普尔斯，霍莉·雷默，史蒂文·斯隆 新罕布什尔州哈德逊——距离选举日还有五周，民主党的热情已达到沸点。
STEVE PEOPLES, HOLLY RAMER, STEVEN SLOAN HUDSON, N.H. — Five weeks before Election Day , Democratic enthusiasm is reaching a fever pitch.
在共和党人艰难应对唐纳德·特朗普总统的低支持率之际，民主党人正在得克萨斯和佛罗里达等共和党票仓发起攻势，甚至瞄准了深红州堪萨斯和密西西比州的选战。许多民主党领导人预测，众议院多数席位几乎已是囊中之物，而一年前几乎不可想象的参议院多数席位也近在咫尺。
With Republicans struggling to overcome President Donald Trump’s low standing, Democrats are on the offensive in Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, and even eyeing contests in deeper-red Kansas and Mississippi. Many Democratic leaders predict that the House majority is all but theirs, and that the Senate majority, almost unthinkable a year ago, is nearly in their grasp as well.
然而，在这种自信之中，民主党人却忽视了那些可能削弱他们所称即将到来的不可阻挡的蓝色浪潮的明显脆弱之处。
In the midst of such confidence, however, Democrats are ignoring glaring vulnerabilities that threaten to undermine the unstoppable blue wave they say is coming.
看看摇摆州新罕布什尔就知道了，民主党领导人正在对该州的政治挑战发出警告，这些挑战可能危及众议员克里斯·帕帕斯竞选空缺席位参议员的选战，并削弱该党在全国各地赢得选举的能力。
Look no further than swing-state New Hampshire, where Democratic leaders are sounding the alarm about political challenges that could jeopardize Rep. Chris Pappas’ campaign for an open Senate seat and undermine the party’s ability to win races around the country.
民主党人指出，共和党人拥有压倒性的资金优势，使他们能够在竞选最后阶段主导电视广播。与此同时，民主党的品牌仍然极不受欢迎，而在主要发生在倾向共和党的州的中期选举中，他们几乎没有犯错的余地。
Democrats point to Republicans’ overwhelming financial advantage that is allowing them to dominate the airwaves in the closing days of the campaign. At the same time, the Democrats’ brand remains deeply unpopular, and they have virtually no margin for error in midterm races that are playing out largely in Republican-leaning states.
新罕布什尔州民主党主席雷·巴克利表示，全国民主党领导人在试图扩大中期选举版图时“一直过于乐观”。他尤其担心该州的参议院选战，共和党人在那里的投入远超民主党人。
New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Ray Buckley says that national Democratic leaders “have consistently been overly optimistic” as they look to expand the midterm map. He’s particularly worried about his state’s Senate contest, where Republicans are investing far more resources than Democrats.
“有理由感到担忧，”巴克利说。“我们不想让这个席位溜走，因为他们把资源送给了其他独角兽——其他一些根本不可能的州。”尽管有这些警告，民主党高层官员几乎没有表现出担忧的迹象，他们指出，由于对伊朗战争以及共和党控制华盛顿后成本飙升感到不满，特朗普在选民中的支持率很低。
“There is reason for concern,” Buckley said. “We don’t want to let this one slip away because they were sending resources to some other unicorns — some other state that’s just not possible.”Despite such warnings, there is little sign of concern among senior Democratic officials, who point to Trump’s poor standing with voters who are frustrated by the war with Iran and surging costs with Republicans in control of Washington.
“这不是我们做了什么。我们赢是因为他们在输，”民主党民调专家约翰·安扎隆说。“而且随着总统采取的每一项行动，他们正在大幅失分。”他说，几乎没有哪个州是民主党在11月无法竞争的：“美国就是战场州。”尽管民主党人信心满满，但该党的品牌仍然极不受欢迎，筹款也落后了。
“It’s nothing we’re doing. We’re winning because they’re losing,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone. “And they’re losing dramatically with every action the president has taken.”There is almost no state where Democrats cannot compete in November, he said: “America is the battleground state.”For all the Democrats’ confidence, the party’s brand remains deeply unpopular and fundraising is lagging.
根据福克斯新闻9月的一项民调，超过半数选民（55%）对民主党持“强烈”或“有些”负面看法。类似比例（58%）的选民对共和党持同样看法，而约六成选民对特朗普持负面看法（62%）。
More than half of voters, 55%, have a “strongly” or “somewhat” unfavorable view of the Democrats, according to a Fox News poll from September. A similar share, 58%, say the same about the Republican Party, while about 6 in 10 voters have a negative view of Trump (62%).
与此同时，根据《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院最近的一项民调，约半数选民表示民主党“过于偏左”。随着选举临近，很少有民主党领导人承认存在问题。
At the same time, about half ofed voters say the Democratic Party is “too far to the left,” according to a recent New York Times/Siena poll. As the election approaches, few Democratic leaders acknowledge there is a problem.
在接受采访时，亚利桑那州民主党参议员马克·凯利被问及民主党品牌问题时，把矛头指向了共和党。“我们比他们提出了更好的理由，这就是为什么我们看起来将赢得大量众议院席位，并可能夺回参议院，”凯利说。“目前，我认为受损的是共和党品牌。”然而，民主党在筹款方面仍难以跟上共和党。共和党竞选资金充裕，在竞选最后几周主导了电视广播。在任何一个拥有顶级参议院选战的州，民主党的支出都没有超过共和党。
In an interview, Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., pointed the finger at Republicans when asked about issues with the Democratic brand. “We’ve made a much better case than them, and that’s why it looks like we’re going to win a bunch of House seats and probably win back the Senate,” Kelly said. “Right now, I think the Republican brand is the one that’s damaged.”And yet Democrats are struggling to keep up with Republican fundraising. Flush with campaign cash, Republicans are dominating the airwaves over the final weeks of the campaign. There isn’t a single state that features a top-tier Senate contest in which Democrats are spending more than Republicans.
根据AdImpact截至周一汇编的数据显示，从9月1日到选举日，共和党在全国范围内的竞选广告支出为16.3亿美元，而民主党的支出为11.9亿美元。共和党在全国范围内近40%的优势在一些关键州实际上更为显著。
Nationwide, Republicans are spending $1.63 billion on campaign advertising between Sept. 1 and Election Day compared to $1.19 billion for Democrats, according to data compiled by AdImpact as of Monday. The Republican advantage, nearly 40% nationwide, is actually larger in some key states.
以德克萨斯州为例，该州参议院、众议院和州长竞选竞争激烈。AdImpact发现，从9月1日到选举日，共和党在该州全境的支出为2.624亿美元，而民主党为7690万美元。在同样举行关键参议院和州长选举的俄亥俄州，共和党的支出为2.588亿美元，超过了民主党的1.604亿美元。在举行竞争激烈的州长和众议院选举的佛罗里达州，共和党的支出为9930万美元，而民主党为4790万美元。
In Texas, for example, which features competitive races for the Senate, House and governor, Republicans are spending $262.4 million statewide between Sept. 1 and Election Day compared to $76.9 million for Democrats, AdImpact found. In Ohio, which also hosts pivotal elections for Senate and governor, Republicans are outspending Democrats $258.8 million to $160.4 million. And in Florida, which features competitive races for governor and the House, Republicans are spending $99.3 million against the Democrats’ $47.9 million. The Republican advantage isn’t as egregious in New Hampshire as some other states, but it is significant.
共和党在新罕布什尔州的优势虽然不如其他一些州那样悬殊，但依然显著。AdImpact发现，共和党在新罕布什尔州全境的支出为4120万美元，超过了民主党的3540万美元。
AdImpact finds that Republicans are outspending Democrats in New Hampshire $41.2 million to $35.4 million statewide. Pappas, the Democrat in the New Hampshire Senate race, acknowledged the Republican spending advantage and warned that his state must remain a priority for his national party.
新罕布什尔州参议院竞选中的民主党人帕帕斯承认了共和党的支出优势，并警告称，他的州必须继续成为其全国党派的优先事项。
“The majority won’t be flipped if we don’t hold this seat in New Hampshire, so it’s really critical to the overall map,” he said during a campaign stop.
他在一次竞选活动中表示：“如果我们不能保住新罕布什尔州的这个席位，多数党地位就无法实现翻盘，因此这对整体选情至关重要。”
Pappas met on Tuesday with small business owners, including Amber Morgan, who owns Fortin Gage Flowers in Nashua.
周二，帕帕斯会见了包括纳舒厄Fortin Gage花店店主安珀·摩根在内的小企业主。她说，特朗普政府关税政策带来的不确定性对她的生意造成了困难。
She said the uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s tariffs have been hard for her business. But Morgan, a Democrat, is not surprised that New Hampshire’s Senate race is close, given that Republicans are running the well-known former Sen. John E. Sununu.
但作为民主党人的摩根对新罕布什尔州的参议院竞选陷入胶着并不感到意外，因为共和党派出的是知名度很高的前参议员约翰·E·苏努努。她说，民主党自身也存在问题。
She said the Democratic Party has its faults as well. “I think that the message for so long has just been, ‘We’re not Trump,’ and we’ve had a bit of an identity crisis in terms of what we actually stand for,” Morgan said.
“我认为长期以来，我们的口号仅仅是‘我们不是特朗普’，在真正代表什么的问题上，我们陷入了一定的身份危机，”摩根说。她并非个例。
She is not alone. Nationwide, the NYT/Siena poll found that about 6 in 10ed voters who identify as Democrats say their party is divided, while only about 4 in 10 Republicans (37%) say the same about the GOP.
全国范围内，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调发现，约六成自认是民主党人的选民表示其党派存在分歧，而仅约四成共和党人（37%）对共和党（GOP）持相同看法。约六成共和党人（61%）形容其党派团结一致，相比之下，仅约四成民主党人（40%）如此认为。但随着共和党在支出上的优势扩大，资金仍是民主党的主要担忧。
Roughly 6 in 10 Republicans (61%) describe their party as united, compared to about 4 in 10 Democrats (40%). But money remains the Democrats’ dominant concern as the Republican spending advantage grows. Steve Marchand, a Democratic consultant and former New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate, said Sununu has benefited from national money that got redirected from other states that are no longer seen as top targets, while Democrats were slower to invest.
民主党顾问、前新罕布什尔州州长候选人史蒂夫·马尚德表示，苏努努受益于从其他不再被视为重点目标州转移而来的全国性资金，而民主党在投入上反应较慢。
“Democrats, including Pappas, became increasingly frustrated that national Democrats treated it like a fait accompli, like ‘you guys have it up there, we’re going to other states,’” Marchand said.
马尚德说：“包括帕帕斯在内的民主党人越来越沮丧，因为全国民主党把这事当成既定事实，仿佛在说‘你们那边稳了，我们要去别的州了’。”他补充道：“我们很多民主党人都在说，‘嘿，苏努努将是个强劲对手，新罕布什尔州可不是那种全票投给同一党派的州。’”帕帕斯走访的一家企业的销售工程师弗雷德·奥斯特霍尔茨表示，他也担心大量资金被投入到支持苏努努的竞选中。但他对帕帕斯的专注印象深刻。
“And a lot of us Democrats were saying, ’Hey, Sununu is going to be formidable, and New Hampshire is not a right-down-the-ticket kind of state.’”Fred Osterholtz, a sales engineer at one of the businesses Pappas visited, said he’s worried about the huge amounts of money being poured into the race on Sununu’s behalf as well. But he was impressed with Pappas’ focus. “I think he’s starting to find some of the messages that will resonate,” Osterholtz said.
奥斯特霍尔茨说：“我认为他开始找到一些能引起共鸣的信息了。六个月前我不是这么觉得的，但鉴于当前的国际局势——成本上涨、通货膨胀——我觉得他们抓住了关键问题。”
“I didn’t feel that way six months ago, but with the world stage the way it is — the costs, the inflation — they’re latching onto the right things I think.”
皮普尔斯在纽约报道，斯隆在华盛顿报道。美联社记者林利·桑德斯在华盛顿对此文亦有贡献。
Peoples reported from New York and Sloan reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed.