作者：Agnieszka Barteczko 和 Barbara Sladkowska波兰通胀率升至2025年年中以来的最高水平，中东冲突引发的燃油价格飙升，正迫使央行加大收紧货币政策的压力。
By Agnieszka Barteczko and Barbara Sladkowska Poland’s inflation rate increased to the highest level since mid-2025 as a spike in fuel prices stoked by the Middle East conflict piles pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy.
9月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨4%，高于8月份3.4%的涨幅。这一初步数据与彭博社调查的经济学家预期中值一致。
Consumer prices advanced 4% in September from a year ago, compared with a 3.4% clip in August. The preliminary data was in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
作为能源进口国，波兰的通胀正在加速，因为伊朗局势的再度紧张已导致本月原油价格每桶上涨约12美元。此外，政府停止了昂贵的燃油价格上限政策，而其试图对能源行业征收暴利税并将所得用于补贴司机的努力，也遭到了与反对派有关联的总统的阻挠。
Inflation in the energy-importing nation is accelerating as renewed Iran tensions have sent the price of crude up by around $12 per barrel this month. The government also halted a costly fuel price cap, while its efforts to impose a windfall tax on the energy industry — and use the proceeds to give some relief to drivers — have been thwarted by the opposition-linked president.
JB Drax Honore首席策略师安德烈·帕切科（Andre Pacheco）认为，由于加油站价格居高不下，且整体通胀率已超过央行2.5%（上下浮动一个百分点）的容忍区间，政策制定者可能很快需要收紧政策。
With no respite in prices at the pump and headline inflation surging above the central bank’s tolerance range of 2.5%, plus/minus one percentage point, policymakers may soon need to tighten policy, according to Andre Pacheco, chief strategist at JB Drax Honore.
帕切科在最新数据发布前的一份报告中写道：“如果没有燃油价格上限或能源价格下跌，未来几个月整体通胀和核心通胀应会持续加速，并在未来几个季度内保持在目标区间之外。”
“Absent a fuel price cap or a decline in energy prices, headline and core inflation should keep accelerating in the coming months and remain outside the target band for a few quarters,” Pacheco wrote in a note before the latest figures were published.
波兰央行行长亚当·格拉平斯基（Adam Glapinski）在本月货币政策委员会会议后的表态明显不那么强硬。他预计，今年的借贷成本可能会维持在3.75%不变，甚至可能持续到明年年中。
Central bank Governor Adam Glapinski was markedly less hawkish in his comments following this month’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. He predicted that borrowing cosets will likely stay unchanged at 3.75% this year and perhaps as long as to the middle of next year.
但由10名成员组成的委员会内部存在分歧，伊雷内乌什·达布罗夫斯基（Ireneusz Dabrowski）和亨里克·沃诺夫斯基（Henryk Wnorowski）倾向于采取观望态度。然而，卢德维克·科特茨基（Ludwik Kotecki）表示，政策制定者最早可能在下个月开始讨论加息，如果央行预测显示通胀率将长期保持在4%以上，则可能在11月进行加息。
But his colleagues on the 10-member panel are split, with Ireneusz Dabrowski and Henryk Wnorowski favoring a wait-and-see stance. Ludwik Kotecki, though, said that policymakers could start rate hike discussions as soon as next month, with a potential increase taking place in November if central bank projections show inflation staying above 4% for longer.
波兰ING银行和波兰Pekao银行的分析师周二调整了预测，目前这两家银行均预计利率将会上调。受市场押注数据将推动决策者采取货币紧缩政策的影响，兹罗提兑欧元汇率周三上涨了0.2%。
Analysts at ING Bank Slaski SA and Bank Pekao SA on Tuesday changed their forecasts and now both lenders expect interest-rate hikes. The zloty strengthened 0.2% against the euro on Wednesday on bets the data would push policymakers toward monetary tightening.