马顿·卡什尼克：匈牙利央行副行长佐尔坦·库拉利表示，如果政府下个月的财政计划显得可信，匈牙利就不应推迟启动加入欧元区的ERM-2前置程序。
By Marton Kasnyik Hungary shouldn’t delay the process of joining the euro area’s ERM-2 antechamber if the government’s fiscal plans next month look credible, central bank Deputy Governor Zoltan Kurali said.
内阁预计将于10月中旬公布2027年预算和更长期财政展望。库拉利周三在Portfolio发布的播客节目中表示，投资者和评级机构将仔细审视这些计划。
The cabinet is due to present its 2027 budget and a longer-term fiscal outlook in mid-October, which will be scrutinized by investors and ratings companies, Kurali said in a podcast interview with Portfolio published Wednesday.
如果政府制定的目标与总理彼得·马扎尔在本十年结束前达到欧元区准入标准的目标一致，那么就没有理由推迟启动ERM-2程序。这是过去一周最新的一项乐观表态，此前包括库拉利周二在彭博会议上发表的评论。
If the government targets align with Prime Minister Peter Magyar’s goal of meeting euro criteria by the end of the decade, then there would be no reason to wait to start the ERM-2 procedure, Kurali said. That marked the latest in a series of bullish comments on the euro adoption timeline in the past week, including remarks at a Bloomberg conference Tuesday.
库拉利说：“我的意思是，如果预算显示匈牙利到2030年能够达到趋同标准，那么推迟启动ERM-2程序就没有意义。”
“I say that if the budget shows that Hungary can meet convergence criteria by 2030 then there’s point in delaying the start of the ERM-2 process,” Kurali said.
库拉利发表评论后，福林兑欧元升值0.4%，年内涨幅扩大至逾5%。投资者纷纷买入匈牙利货币和债券，押注随着该国逐步走上采用共同货币之路，各项水平将逐渐向欧元区靠拢。
The forint gained 0.4% against the euro after Kurali’s comments, extending its year-to-date rally to more than 5%. Investors have piled into the Hungarian currency and bonds, betting that levels will gradually converge with the euro area as the country moves along the path toward the adoption of the common currency.
ERM-2是欧盟的一套框架，将非欧元区成员国货币与欧元挂钩，并将汇率波动限制在规定区间内；这是加入欧元区的先决条件。潜在成员通常需要在ERM波动区间内至少停留两年，不过，一些国家加入该机制后，过了更长时间才采用共同货币。
ERM-2 is the EU framework that pegs non-euro member currencies to the euro within defined fluctuation bands as a prerequisite for eurozone entry. Prospective members typically spend at least two years in the ERM fluctuation band, though some entrants took a lot longer before adopting the common currency.
库拉利表示，他希望ERM-2加入程序能在一年内启动，并使加入该机制的现实日期变得清晰可见。他说，启动该程序需要政府作出决定，随后央行将调动全部资源支持这项工作。
Kurali said he would like the ERM-2 accession process to be underway within a year, with a realistic date for joining the mechanism in sight. Starting the process requires a government decision, after which the central bank would make all its resources available to support the effort, he said.
加入欧洲汇率机制第二阶段将涉及与欧洲中央银行及欧洲各国当局的谈判，并可能要求匈牙利在银行联盟、金融市场和政府定价等问题上满足相关条件。库拉利说，加入的时机和汇率不会预先确定，而将通过谈判结果产生。
Entry into ERM-2 would involve negotiations with the European Central Bank and European authorities and could require Hungary to meet conditions on issues including the banking union, financial markets and administered prices, Kurali said. The timing of entry and the exchange rate wouldn’t be determined in advance but would emerge from the negotiations, he said.
库拉利还表示，如果全球能源市场趋于稳定，且匈牙利财政前景改善，未来可以考虑进一步降息。匈牙利在9月将基准利率维持在5.5%；此前，该国在整个夏季已连续三次降息。
Kurali also said further interest-rate cuts could be considered if the global energy market stabilizes and Hungary’s fiscal outlook improves. Hungary held its benchmark interest rate at 5.5% in September following three consecutive rate cuts through the summer.