阿尔伯塔省的这个社区曾因石油产业的飞速繁荣与毁灭性萧条而闻名，如今，它正面临着又一波潜在的经济机遇。
The Alberta community synonymous with meteoric oil booms and crippling busts is now staring down another potential wave of economic fortune.
麦克默里堡（Fort McMurray）的增长迹象已经显现：房价上涨、油田投资增加、企业大举招聘，连蒂姆霍顿斯（Tim Hortons）咖啡店的免下车点餐窗口也排起了长队。
Already signs are pointing to a boost in growth in Fort McMurray with rising home prices, increased investment in the oilpatch, widespread hiring and longer lines at the Tim Hortons drive-thru.
这种增长很大程度上是由于人们对阿尔伯塔省政府提议修建的一条通往西海岸的新输油管道充满期待。预计联邦政府将于周四宣布该项目符合国家利益。
Much of the growth is in anticipation of a new oil pipeline to the West Coast, as proposed by the Alberta government. On Thursday, the federal government is expected to declare the project is in the national interest.
随着越来越多的家庭和企业迁入，屋顶维修工威廉·吉尔伯特（William Gilbert）看到了自己的生意正随着麦克默里堡的发展而壮大。
As more families and businesses move in, roofer William Gilbert sees his business growing alongside Fort McMurray.
在社区西侧，吉尔伯特的一支施工队正使用钉枪和屋顶锤，为一栋黑色两层住宅铺设瓦片。他的20名员工正全力以赴以满足市场需求。虽然生意没有一夜之间暴涨，但吉尔伯特预计未来几年招聘规模将稳步扩大。
With nail guns and roofing hammers, one of Gilbert's crews finishes up attaching shingles on a black two-storey house on the western edge of the community. His 20 employees are working as much as they can to keep up with demand. Though business hasn't spiked overnight, Gilbert expects steady hiring over the next few years.
“我认为我们的规模会翻倍，甚至翻两番，”他说，“我们正在缓慢迎来繁荣。”过去12个月里，联邦和省政府发布了一系列旨在提高石油产量的公告，其中包括阿尔伯塔省与渥太华共同开发的一条西海岸输油管道，这些举措点燃了人们的乐观情绪。
"I see us doubling, if not tripling," he said. "We're slowly getting a boom." A series of federal and provincial announcements aimed at growing oil production over the last 12 months are fuelling the sense of optimism, including a new West Coast oil pipeline being developed by Alberta and Ottawa.
此外，联邦政府还取消了某些环境政策，例如油田排放上限，同时加快了重大项目的审批监管流程，并为投资者引入了新的财政激励措施。
In addition, the federal government has wiped away certain environmental policies such as the oilpatch emissions cap, while speeding up the regulatory process to approve major projects and introducing new financial incentives for investors.
阿尔伯塔省政府的目标是到2035年将油砂产量翻一番，达到每天800万桶。
The Alberta government aims to double oilsands production to eight million barrels per day by 2035.
过去十年，该地区的许多企业表现平平，经济增长缓慢，人口不断流失。然而，这段时期也让当地政府有机会补齐在道路和其他重要基础设施建设方面的短板。如今，人们正在回流，推动当地人口达到历史最高水平。
The last decade in the region has been lacklustre for many businesses, with little economic growth and a declining population. However, the period was useful in allowing the local government to catch up on building roads and other important infrastructure. Now, people are moving back, pushing the population to an all-time high.
“自2015年以来，这里一直笼罩在悲观和阴郁的氛围中，”伍德布法罗地区市政委员会议员凯尔·范德卡斯滕说。“我们已准备好迎接增长。”
"It's been very doom and gloom here since 2015," said Kyle Vandecasteyen, a councillor with the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo. "We're ready for growth."
兴奋情绪正在升温。当地商会主席黛安娜·德索萨表示，一些建筑承包商的工作量已增加了两倍。“这是一种有序的混乱。他们不得不拒绝一些工作，”她说。
Excitement building Some construction crews have seen a threefold increase in work, said Dianna De Sousa, the president of the local chamber of commerce. "It's organized chaos. They have to turn away work," she said.
她表示，在经历了数年的经济停滞之后，人们既感到兴奋和期待，又夹杂着些许担忧。
After several years of a stagnant economy, she said there is excitement and anticipation, mixed with some trepidation.
“毫无疑问，挑战将在于劳动力和人力资源，”德索萨说，因为一些技术工人已经出现短缺。
"The challenge is going to be labour and workforce without a doubt," said De Sousa, since some tradespeople are already in short supply.
石油繁荣需要大量工人，从司机、工程师到机械师和管道工，缺一不可。当地学院正试图加紧准备，但同样面临难以找到足够讲师的困境。
An oil boom will require a plethora of workers from drivers and engineers to mechanics and pipefitters. The local college is trying to gear up, but it faces a similar predicament in finding enough instructors.
“我希望当这波繁荣来临时，我们拥有足够的人力，”凯亚诺学院的重型机械师兼讲师肖恩·加农说。
"I'm hoping when this boom happens, we have the manpower," said Shane Ganong, a heavy-duty mechanic and instructor at Keyano College.
他在上一次石油繁荣期间曾在油砂区工作，包括全天候的长时间轮班。“我们不需要让人们承受过去那种极端的工作强度，”他说。
He worked in the oilsands during the last boom, including long shifts at all hours of the day. "We don't need to put people through such extreme workloads that they put in the past," he said.
分析：美国可能很快将控制委内瑞拉20%的石油储量。加拿大石油行业并不担心。阿尔伯塔省分离主义团体发布报告，宣扬向独立过渡的成本可控。
AnalysisThe U.S. could soon control 20% of Venezuela's oil reserves. Canada's oilpatch isn't worried Alberta separation group releases report touting affordable transition to independence Housing demand is up about 30 per cent this summer compared to last year, said realtor Paige Cyr, "So we are eating up our housing supply quite quickly."
房地产经纪人佩奇·赛尔表示，今年夏季的住房需求比去年增长了约30%。“因此，我们的住房供应正在被迅速消耗。”
The real estate market hasn't been this strong in many years, and while prices are rising, Cyr said some houses are still selling $200,000 below when they were purchased 10 or 15 years ago.
房地产市场多年来未曾如此强劲，尽管房价正在上涨，但赛尔表示，一些房屋仍以低于10或15年前购买价格20万加元的水平售出。“人们正在回到这个地区。人们准备好进行投资了，”她说。
"People are coming back to the region. People are ready to invest," she said.
社区中普遍的看法是，需要以缓慢且可控的节奏实现增长，因为麦克默里堡在以往的繁荣时期未能做好充分准备。
The common sentiment in the community is a need for a slow and controlled pace of growth, since Fort McMurray was unprepared during past booms.
淘金热般的氛围吸引了来自加拿大各地的工人，他们被全国最高的工资所吸引。房屋、托儿所和学校严重短缺。企业之间互相挖角。杂货店排起了长龙，没完没了。
A gold rush-type atmosphere brought workers from across Canada, lured by the highest wages in the country. There were too few houses, daycares and schools. Businesses were poaching workers from each other. Grocery stores had never-ending lineups.
“突然间繁荣结束了，本地这么多人房贷‘倒挂’（资不抵债）。这种事已经发生过好几次了，”在麦克默里堡经营超过50年的Alcor设施管理公司首席运营官Kris Yarish说道，该公司提供建筑、工人营地及其他服务。
"All of a sudden the bust happens and so many people that are local here are underwater in their mortgages. And that's happened a few times," said Kris Yarish, the chief operating officer of Alcor Facilities Management, which has operated in Fort McMurray for over 50 years, providing construction, work camps and other services.
他特别记得2006年的繁荣期，由于高速公路上车流量太大，前往油砂工地的车程变成了平时的四倍。
He remembers the 2006 boom in particular, when it took four times as long to drive to oilsands sites because of so much traffic on the highway.
最近，他在一次石油贸易展上站在自家展位前——这是近十年来规模最大的此类活动，聚集了200多家企业——不禁注意到了积极的氛围。
As he stood in front of his company's booth during a recent oil trade show, the largest such event in nearly a decade with more than 200 businesses, he couldn't help but notice the positive atmosphere.
“拥有一条新管道能起到决定性作用，百分之百，”他说，“这给整个行业注入了信心。”
"Having a new pipeline makes a difference, 100 per cent," he said, providing confidence throughout the industry.
没有保证 尽管如此，他依然保持谨慎，深知潜在的石油繁荣随时可能搁浅。
No guarantees Still, he's cautious knowing how a potential oil boom could always be derailed.
大型油砂公司不愿投资数百亿加元并背负巨额债务来建设大型项目，上一个此类项目已是2018年完工。投资者不再像过去那样优先考虑公司的增长，转而关注稳定的现金回报和股票回购。
Large oilsands companies have been reluctant to invest tens of billions of dollars and take on sizeable debts to build megaprojects, of which the last one was completed in 2018. Investors no longer prioritize a company's growth as they once did, instead focusing on regular returns of cash and share buybacks.
Yarish表示，还有其他因素，比如与美国持续的贸易战，以及全球油价持续动荡。
Past oil booms in Fort McMurray were driven by multiple oilsands companies all building at once, which meant competing for labour, equipment and supplies.
在麦克默里堡，大型基础设施工程正在继续进行，重型机械正在河岸移动泥土，以更好地保护市中心免受洪水侵袭。该市政当局已投资污水、供水、道路及其他项目，以更好地为社区迎接下一波增长做好准备。
These days, there are only a handful of major oilsands producers after several years of consolidation. There are other factors too, said Yarish, such as the ongoing trade war with the United States and continued turmoil with global oil prices. Major infrastructure work continues in Fort McMurray as heavy machinery moves dirt along the riverbank to better protect the downtown from flooding.
尽管如此，仍有更多工作要做，包括当地居民持续推动修建一条新高速公路，以更好地连接社区。
The municipality has invested in sewer, water, road and other projects to better position the community for the next wave of growth.
自2016年那场毁灭性野火以来，耗资15亿加元的东克利尔沃特高速公路项目一直在讨论中，那场大火凸显了麦克默里堡仅有一条通往社区外的高速公路。
Still, there's more to do, including a continued push by some locals for a new highway to better connect the community. The $1.5-billion East Clearwater Highway has been discussed since the devastating 2016 wildfire, which highlighted how Fort McMurray only has one highway out of the community.
该拟建项目将在东侧增加一条第二条路线，同时也将改善通往该地区一些油砂设施的通道。"如果油砂产业将继续增长并拥有新管道，你就想要修建那条高速公路，不仅因为这对行业有商业意义，也是为了安全，"在该社区生活了30多年的NorthStar Ford的Marty Giles说道。
The proposed project would add a second route to the east, which would also improve access to some oilsands facilities in the region. "If the oilsands is going to be growing and have a new pipeline, you want to build that highway, not only because it makes business sense for the industry, but for safety as well," said Marty Giles with NorthStar Ford, who has lived in the community for more than 30 years.
他在麦克默里堡的经销店每年销售约1,200辆F系列卡车，他看到了经济增长的所有迹象。
His dealership in Fort McMurray sells about 1,200 F-Series trucks each year and he sees all the signs of economic growth.
这就是为什么他正在再招聘30人，将员工总数推高至约300人。"实际上，在过去十年里，我从未像今天这样在麦克默里堡见过如此多的乐观情绪，"他说道。
That's why he is hiring another 30 people to push his staffing level to about 300 workers. "I haven't seen this much optimism actually in Fort McMurray for the last decade as I do today," he said.