字号 ·· | 护眼
彭博社

瑞士央行第二季度继续抛售瑞郎,遏制资金流入SNB Continued Franc Sales in Second Quarter, Stemming Flows

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

Bastian Benrath-Wright 报道瑞士国家银行第二季度继续卖出瑞郎,兑现其“加大干预意愿”、应对本币升值的表态。

By Bastian Benrath-Wright The Swiss National Bank continued to sell francs in the second quarter, following through on its “increased willingness” to intervene against a stronger currency.

根据周三公布的数据,瑞士央行4月至6月买入了价值14亿瑞郎(17亿美元)的外汇,低于今年第一季度买入的39亿瑞郎。

Switzerland’s central bank purchased foreign exchange worth 1.4 billion francs ($1.7 billion) from April through June, according to data on Wednesday. That’s down from the 3.9 billion francs it bought in the first three months of the year.

这表明,在伊朗战争引发的避险资金持续流入瑞士期间,央行官员不得不对冲这些资金流入。

That suggests officials were forced to offset continued haven flows into Switzerland triggered by the Iran war in the period.

冲突开始时瑞郎大幅升值,促使瑞士央行于3月罕见地主动发表声明,强调已提高随时干预的准备程度,不过此后又恢复了较为中性的措辞。

The surge in the franc at the start of the conflict prompted the SNB to declare its heightened readiness stance in a rare unsolicited statement in March, though it has since reverted to more neutral language.

本期期初和期末,瑞郎汇率基本持平,每欧元约兑0.92瑞郎。自7月以来,瑞郎大幅贬值,跌幅约为2.4%。

The Swiss currency started and ended the period at essentially the same level of around 0.92 francs per euro. Since July, it has weakened considerably, retreating some 2.4%.

在此次数据公布前,瑞银经济学家弗洛里安·热尔米耶估计,当期干预规模接近于零,甚至提到可能少量买入瑞郎。

Before the report, UBS economist Florian Germanier estimated that interventions were close to zero in the period, and even cited the possibility of minor franc purchases.

坚持干预的决心已成为瑞士央行政策沟通的核心。继3月首次发出干预警告后,官员在整个季度内通过多次演讲继续重申这一点。4月,瑞士央行行长马丁·施莱格尔表示,央行在利率和干预方面均拥有不受限制的操作空间。

The central bank’s resolve to keep intervening has taken center stage in its communications. After the initial intervention threat in March, officials kept it up in several speeches throughout the quarter. In April, SNB President Martin Schlegel said the SNB had unrestricted room to maneuver on rates and interventions.

6月,决策者略微软化了措辞,在此前关于加大干预意愿的表述中加上了“必要时”。他们还承认,在瑞郎从3月水平回落后,货币条件已经趋松。不过,在上周作出货币政策决定前,决策者并未撤回干预警告,而是重新采用了伊朗战争前的表述。

In June, policymakers softened the message slightly, adding that they have increased willingness to intervene “if necessary” to their previous language. They also acknowledged looser monetary conditions after the franc had fallen from March levels. Still, they didn’t drop the threat before their monetary-policy decision last week, when they returned to pre-Iran war language.

瑞士利率已维持零水平一年多,而瑞郎一直是瑞士央行决策者关注的重点,因为升值后的瑞郎会降低进口成本,从而对通胀构成抑制作用。

Swiss interest rates have been at zero for over a year, with the franc a key focal point for SNB policymakers because its weigh on inflation via lower import costs.

尽管伊朗战争导致能源价格飙升,8月消费者价格仍上涨0.8%。9月通胀数据将于周四公布,经济学家预计涨幅还会进一步上升,但该增速仍远低于同类经济体,且明显处于瑞士央行0%至2%的目标区间之内。

Consumer-price growth was 0.8% in August, despite energy price spikes from the Iran war. September inflation data are due on Thursday, with economists predicting a further increase, but the rate remains much lower than in comparable economies and comfortably in the SNB’s 0-2% target range.

在利率处于零的情况下,官员们已经用尽宽松空间,除了重启负利率这一激进且有害的选项。由此,汇率干预成为瑞士央行除利率政策外的一项重要工具。

With interest rates at zero, officials have exhausted easing space, aside from the drastic and damaging option of reintroducing negative borrowing costs. That makes currency interventions an important tool for Swiss officials alongside the interest rate.

央行可以通过买入外币计价资产来压低瑞郎汇率。截至2022年,瑞士央行官员多年来一直利用这一机制抑制瑞郎走强。这使瑞士央行的资产负债表膨胀至一些观察人士认为颇具风险的规模。

By buying assets in foreign denominations, the central bank can weaken the exchange rate. Swiss officials used this mechanism for several years through 2022 to keep a lid on the franc. That swelled the SNB’s balance sheet to a size some observers deemed precarious.

施莱格尔强调,瑞士央行并不以某个特定汇率为目标;她补充说,官员在评估货币状况时,会以一篮子货币为参照,并结合其他因素判断瑞郎的强势程度。

Schlegel has stressed that the SNB doesn’t target a specific exchange rate, adding that officials judge the franc’s strength against a basket of currencies and alongside other factors when assessing monetary conditions.

央行的数据公布存在三个月时滞,因此第三季度统计结果要到12月31日才会揭晓。

The central bank only publishes data with a three-month delay, so the third-quarter tally won’t be revealed until Dec. 31.