迈克尔·姆西卡撰文：围绕房地产股的悲观情绪如此严重，以至于在利率攀升之际，存在一种戏剧性逆转的条件，利好那些时机把握得当的投资者。
By Michael Msika Pessimism around real estate stocks is so severe as interest rates climb that conditions exist for a dramatic reversal to the benefit of investors with good timing.
斯托克600房地产指数在2026年已下跌约7%，势将连续第三年表现不佳。尽管该板块在此期间维持在一个区间内，但相对于更广泛的斯托克600指数的差距如今已超过全球金融危机引发的低迷时期。
The Stoxx 600 Real Estate index has slid about 7% in 2026 and is set for a third consecutive year of underperformance. While the sector has kept to a range over that period, the gap relative to the broader Stoxx 600 index is now greater than during the slump caused by the global financial crisis.
“从预期降息转向可能加息，加剧了房地产投资面临的艰难环境，因为借贷成本上升和金融环境收紧对资产价值和投资者情绪构成压力，”由米斯拉夫·马特伊卡领衔的摩根大通策略师表示。“该板块是明显的债券替代品，受到债券收益率上升的影响。”这种悲观情绪已持续一段时间，但在夏季加剧。根据美国银行9月的基金经理调查，欧洲房地产是最大的低配板块之一，净36%的投资者持仓低于其基准允许的水平。这是至少两年来的最高比例，几乎是7月数字的三倍。
“The shift from anticipated rate cuts to potential rate increases has intensified the difficult environment for real estate investments, as higher borrowing costs and tighter financial conditions weigh on asset values and investor sentiment,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka. “The sector is a clear bond proxy and is affected by rising bond yields.”The gloom has been running for a while, but intensified over the summer. According to the September Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey, European real estate is among the biggest underweights, with a net 36% of investors holding less than their benchmarks allow. It’s the highest proportion in at least two years, and nearly triple July’s figure.
该板块与债券的高度相关性意味着其不受青睐的地位完全合理。各国央行在应对通胀之际正处于紧缩路径上，只要油价保持高位且经济保持韧性，政策制定者就没有理由改变方向。掉期市场目前预计欧洲央行将在明年6月底前再加息三次，英国央行将在7月底前加息四次。
The sector’s close correlation to bonds means its unloved status is well deserved. Central banks are on a tightening path as they confront inflation, and as long as oil prices remain elevated and the economy stays resilient, policymakers have no reason to change course. The swap market currently expects three more rate hikes from the European Central Bank by the end of next June, and four from the Bank of England by the end of July.
然而，激进的利率定价推高债券收益率的趋势也可能迅速逆转。自伊朗战争爆发以来，油价一直是债券和股票走势的主要驱动因素，尽管和平谈判进展甚微，但任何突破都可能彻底改变局面。正因如此，利率前景可谓胜负难料，而当市场情绪如此低迷时，方向的突然转变可能会非常剧烈。
And yet, the aggressive rate pricing pushing bond yields higher can just as quickly reverse. Oil prices have been a major driver for bonds and stocks since the start of the Iran war, and while there hasn’t been much progress on peace talks, any breakthrough could change the picture drastically. That’s why the outlook for rates can be seen as a coin toss, and when mood is this bleak, a sudden change in direction can be violent.
该板块的表现记录如此糟糕，以至于一些人开始认为这种悲观情绪已经过头。例如，德意志银行和美国银行策略师均给予房地产板块增持评级。被打压的股价也可被视为支撑因素，该板块目前在绝对和相对估值水平上均远低于平均水平。
The sector’s track record has been so dismal that some are starting to view the negativity as overdone. Strategists at Deutsche Bank AG and BofA, for example, both have overweight ratings on real estate. Beaten-down prices can also be seen as supportive, with the group trading well below average valuation levels on an absolute and relative basis.
对美国银行而言，看好房地产的部分理由在于，利率长期维持高位的预期将如何影响经济和风险资产。
For BofA, part of the case for real estate stems from how the higher-for-longer rate outlook will play out for the economy and risk assets.
“在近期表现不佳之后，我们的德国国债收益率和PMI预测意味着，未来几个月房地产相对价格有约15%的上行空间，”由塞巴斯蒂安·雷德勒领导的美国银行策略师表示。“鉴于其国内敞口，当欧元区PMI相对于全球PMI走强时，房地产往往表现优于收益率所隐含的走势。”房地产股票并非千篇一律，各地区之间存在分化。地方政策有能力加速或限制损失。
“Following the recent underperformance, our bund yield and PMI projections imply around 15% upside for real estate’s price relative in the months ahead,” said BofA strategists led by Sebastian Raedler. “Given its domestic exposure, real estate tends to outperform the yield-implied trajectory when euro area PMIs strengthen relative to global PMIs.”Real estate stocks aren’t all created equal, and there is divergence between regions. Local policies have the power to accelerate or limit losses.
例如在柏林，一项没收大型住房投资组合的激进提案重新被提上议程，为该板块增添了额外威胁。德国房地产股已经是欧洲子指数中表现最差的品种之一。
In Berlin, for example, a radical proposal to seize large housing portfolios is back on the agenda, providing an additional threat to the sector. German names are already among the worst performers in the European subindex.
相比之下，英国的房屋建筑行业刚刚得到了喘息的机会：工党政府愿意重新推出“购房援助计划”（即帮助购房者购买房屋的优惠政策）。这一举措对于这个正处于下滑趋势中的行业来说来得正是时候——本周的抵押贷款审批数量已经跌到了32年来的最低水平。市场对这一消息的反应非常强烈，充分说明了政策调整能够带来的积极变化。
By contrast, UK homebuilders have just been handed a reprieve, with the Labour government willing to revive a help-to-buy program. It’s a perfectly timed boost for a sector that was in a downward spiral, with mortgage approvals hitting a 32-month low this week. The sharp market reaction to the news serves as a good example of the reversal that can be triggered by a policy switch.
“英国的房地产股票此前已经被严重低估了。现在，他们终于有了一个推动股价上涨的催化剂，”J O Hambro Capital Management Ltd.英国股票收益基金的联合经理Clive Beagles表示。“政府的新股权贷款计划有望刺激新建住房项目的开展，促进企业盈利增长，并改变整个行业的未来前景。我们认为这可能会成为英国股市以及活跃投资者的一个重大转折点。”
“UK housing stocks were already deeply undervalued. Now they have a catalyst,” said Clive Beagles, co-manager of the J O Hambro Capital Management Ltd. UK Equity Income fund. “The government’s new equity loan scheme could revive new-build activity, unlock earnings growth and reshape the outlook for the sector. We look at why this could be a game changer for UK equities and active investors.”
尽管如此，英国仍存在诸多潜在风险，因此投资者短期内可能会保持谨慎态度。高盛集团的分析师指出，英国国债的收益率正处于多年来的高位，这正在推高企业的再融资成本；预计许多家庭在未来两年内将面临更高的抵押贷款利率。此外，根据高盛的分析，建筑成本的上涨速度超过了房价的涨幅，从而给建筑企业的利润率带来了压力。
For all that, lingering risks in the UK are likely to keep investors cautious for now. Gilt yields at multiyear highs are feeding through into refinancing costs, with many households expected to roll onto materially higher mortgage rates during the next two years. Meanwhile, build-cost inflation continues to outpace pricing growth, putting pressure on margins, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts.