作者:艾莉森·施拉格(Allison Schrager)对于美国人来说,现在是最好的时代——至少从经济层面来看是这样,也至少在纸面上是如此(当然是比喻意义上的,毕竟现在已经没人用纸了)。作为一个国家,我们从未像现在这样富有和繁荣。生活水平和预期寿命都处于历史最高点。然而,人们却感觉经济似乎出了问题。
By Allison Schrager These are the best of times for Americans — at least economically and at least on paper (in the metaphorical sense of course, since no one uses paper anymore). We’ve never been richer or more prosperous as a nation. Living standards and life expectancy are at all-time highs. Yet, it feels like the economy is broken.
如何解释这种反常现象?想想我们拥有的东西中,有多少还是实体的。我们的经济正日益建立在无形资产之上,而当我们所拥有的大部分东西不再处于物理领域时,很难感到满足。
What explains this anomaly? Consider how few of the things we own are physical anymore. Our economy is increasingly built on intangibles, and it may be hard to feel satisfied when so much of what we have is no longer in the physical realm.
以我们的财富为例。几个月前我曾写道,越来越多的年轻人选择投资股市而非房产。这是一个明智的选择:过去十年里,股市提供了更高的回报,风险也更低。股票投资不需要支付首付,也不会在年轻人积累技能的黄金时期将他们束缚在某个地方。股价上涨是Z世代成为同龄人中最富有的一代的主要原因。
Take our wealth. I wrote a few months ago that more young people are investing in the stock market instead of housing. It’s been a wise choice: The stock market has offered a higher return and less risk for the past decade. Stock investing doesn’t require a down payment or tie the buyer to a single place in their prime skill-building years. Rising stock values are a big reason why Gen Z is the richest generation for their age.
但持有股票是一种无形的财富形式。你拥有美国经济的一份份额,但你很难看着亚马逊公司(Amazon.com Inc.)并觉得它的一部分属于你。此外,美国股市中越来越多的公司,其价值在于知识产权,这也是一种无形资产。
But owning stocks is an intangible form of wealth. You own a share of the American economy, but it is hard to look at Amazon.com Inc. and feel as though part of it is yours. More of the American stock market, too, is made up of companies whose value is their intellectual property, another intangible.
将此与拥有住房进行比较。你拥有的是实实在在的房产。你可以投入金钱,甚至亲自动手翻新厨房。你认识邻居,感受到自己是社区的一员,并有动力去投资于这两者。我看着标普500指数的其他持有者时,并不会感到一种共同的目标感,尽管从理论上讲我应该有。
Compare this to owning a home. You physically own property. You can put money or even your own labor into renovating your kitchen. You know your neighbors, feel part of a community and have an interest in investing in both. I don’t look at fellow S&P 500 Index owners and feel a common sense of purpose, though theoretically I should.
社区归属感已被取代,社交生活也变得更加无形。更多的社交活动发生在虚拟世界中。我们与他人面对面相处、甚至通电话的时间都减少了。购物时,我们更多地在网上购买,而不是去实体店与人打交道、亲眼看到商品。这可能让我们感到更加疏离和孤独,即便我们拥有更多的联系,能够与世界各地的的人交流。
The sense of community and belonging has been replaced with social lives that are less tangible as well. More socialization takes place in the virtual world. We spend less time with other people in person or even on the phone. We buy more online rather than see people and merchandise when we shop. This may leave us feeling more disconnected and lonely, even if we have more connections and can communicate with people all over the world.
我们的人力资本也变得更加无形。我们中越来越多的人在服务业工作,积累与之相关的技能,而不是制造实物。服务性工作通常收入更高,体力劳动也没那么繁重,但我们的劳动没有产出。即便在我自己的职业中,记者也很少再看到自己的想法印在纸面上。与此同时,对知识工作的重视加剧了收入和财富的不平等(尽管人工智能可能会缩小这一差距)。实体经济中的工资较低,但差距也较小。
Our human capital has also become more intangible. More of us work in the services sector and build skills relevant to it, rather than making things. Service jobs often earn more and are less physically arduous, but there is no output from our labor. Even in my own profession, journalists rarely see their ideas on the printed page anymore. The premium placed on knowledge work, meanwhile, has contributed to income and wealth inequality (though AI may shrink that). Wages are lower in a physical economy but also less disperse.
这些转变或许有助于解释人们对数据中心的抵触。建工厂往往受到欢迎,被视为政治上的胜利。数据中心也能为社区带来经济利益,因为它们创造建筑就业岗位,并与经济增长相关联。然而,它们却只遭遇了怀疑。
These shifts may help explain the backlash to data centers. Building factories tends to be popular and seen as a political triumph. Data centers also bring economic benefits to a community as they create construction jobs and are associated with growth. Yet, they have only been met with suspicion.
部分不信任源于一种看法,认为数据中心会造成污染并推高电费,尽管没有太多证据表明这是真的。另一个摩擦点在于它们的新颖性,以及人们难以理解它们生产什么、对谁有益,尤其是在人工智能导致失业的恐惧日益加剧之际。这不像制造一台烤面包机那么简单,即便数据中心是一个更先进、更富裕经济的标志。
Some of the distrust springs from the belief that they will cause pollution and drive up electricity bills, though there is not much evidence that’s true. Another point of friction is their newness and the difficulty of understanding what they produce and to whose benefit, particularly when the fear of job loss to artificial intelligence looms large. It’s not like making a toaster, even if data centers are a sign of a much more advanced and wealthy economy.
在我们彻底变成卢德分子、辞职去阿拉斯加过自给自足的生活之前,重要的是要记住,正是无形经济让我们变得更富有、寿命更长。如今的技术创新对知识和专长的回报,远超有形世界对体力劳动的重视程度。我们从事的体力劳动也大幅减少,这也是我们寿命更长、生活更健康的原因之一。
Before we go full luddite, quit our jobs and live off the land in Alaska, it is important to remember that the intangible economy is why we are richer and live longer lives. Today’s technological innovations reward knowledge and expertise much more than the tangible world ever valued physical labor. We also do much less physical labor, which is one reason we live longer and healthier lives.
那么,为什么这些益处让人难以感到欣慰?我们是进化为争夺有限资源的社会性生物。这个新世界不再那么零和博弈,因为知识是无限的,但它让我们转而争夺地位和关注,这比拥有大房子或一大块金子更难令人满足,也更稍纵即逝。它催生了新的地位游戏,例如在社交媒体上,这些游戏我们永远无法真正获胜。
So why are the benefits harder to feel good about? We are social creatures who evolved to compete for finite resources. This new world is less zero sum, since knowledge is infinite, but it leaves us completing for status and attention instead, which can be less satisfying and more ephemeral than a big house or a chunk of gold. It creates new status games, for example on social media, that we can’t ever really win.
我们也就是喜欢实物。一栋宽敞漂亮的房子,带来的满足感可能胜过一间单间出租公寓加上200万美元的经纪账户余额。
We also just like stuff. A large, beautiful house may bring more satisfaction than a one-bedroom rental apartment and a $2 million brokerage account balance.
然而,我依然乐观地认为,我们并非注定要过一种毫无意义、充满痛苦的生活。只是规范的改变需要时间。过去,种地养活自己曾被视为比给老板打工、在工厂上班更诚实的劳动。我们或许仍对务农怀有浪漫向往,但鲜有人甘愿做自给自足的农民。
Yet I am optimistic we aren’t doomed to a life of misery that’s devoid of meaning. It just takes time for norms to change. Growing your own food once felt like the most honest work compared to having a boss and working in a factory. We may still have a romantic attachment to the idea of farming, but few people want to be subsistence farmers.
我们视为有价值和有意义的事物始终在演变,有时过渡期会很漫长,因为经济变革的速度快于规范和文化的演变。这一过程可能令人不安、孤立。但最终,我们总能找到新的方式建立联系、重塑社区。或许我们终将达到这样一个境地:不拥有任何有形资产也足矣,只要我们在账面上拥有很多东西(你懂我的意思!)。 联系本文
What we consider valuable and meaningful is always evolving and sometimes the transition takes time because the economy moves faster than our norms and culture do. This process can be destabilizing and isolating. But eventually we find ways to connect and rebuild community in new ways. Perhaps we will get to the point where owning nothing tangible will be enough, if we own a lot on paper. (You know what I mean!) To contact the author of this story: at aschrager4@bloomberg.net