如果该地区不防范化肥短缺背景下的出口限制，饥饿危机可能会悄然袭击东南亚，国际商会（ICC）秘书长约翰·邓顿发出警告。
A hunger crisis could creep up on Southeast Asia if the region does not guard against export restrictions amid a fertiliser shortfall, International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Secretary General John Denton has warned.
周三，在新加坡举行的“贸易未来论坛”间隙，邓顿敦促作为下一届东盟轮值主席国的这个城市国家，将这一“隐性问题”列为该地区的优先事项。他认为，尽管霍尔木兹海峡的僵局普遍被视为能源危机，但真正的核心在于粮食。
On the sidelines of the Future of Trade Forum in Singapore on Wednesday, Denton urged the city state, as the next Asean chair, to prioritise the “sleeper issue” for the region. He argued that the real story centred on food, despite the Strait of Hormuz gridlock being widely seen as an energy crunch.
他指出，联合国在俄乌战争期间成功推出了黑海粮食倡议，通过让双方签署协议，允许粮食从特定港口安全出口，从而缓解了全球粮食紧急状况。
He noted that the UN was able to carve out the Black Sea Grain Initiative during the Russia-Ukraine war by getting both sides to sign off on an agreement that allowed for the safe export of grain from certain ports, alleviating a global food emergency.
在联合国牵头的霍尔木兹海峡工作组框架下，国际商会正参与尝试通过这一动荡海峡实施类似倡议。然而，美国和伊朗尚未批准该计划。
Under a UN-led task force on Hormuz, the ICC is involved in trying to implement a similar initiative through the troubled strait. However, the United States and Iran have yet to sign off on the plan.
“霍尔木兹海峡的背景不同，但实际要素相似，因为有一条贸易路线实际上已被冻结、军事化，”邓顿对《亚洲周刊》表示。
“The context of Hormuz is different, but the actual elements of it are similar, in that you’ve got a trade route which has been effectively frozen, militarised,” Denton told This Week in Asia.
国际商会是一个全球性商业组织，代表170多个国家的企业和协会。
The ICC is a global business organisation representing companies and associations across more than 170 countries.
东南亚国家联盟的许多成员国——包括泰国、菲律宾、柬埔寨和缅甸——严重依赖从区外进口的磷肥、钾肥和氮肥。
Many member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – including Thailand, the Philippines, Cambodia and Myanmar – rely heavily on imported phosphate, potash and nitrogen fertilisers from outside the region.
东盟生产国目前侧重于管理国内价格上限和补贴，而非限制区域出口。例如，印度尼西亚利用国内市场供应义务和化肥补贴来保护其本国农业部门。
Asean producers currently focus on managing domestic price caps and subsidies rather than restricting regional exports. Indonesia, for instance, uses domestic market obligations and fertiliser subsidies to protect its local agricultural sector.
然而，全球约三分之一的海运化肥贸易经过霍尔木兹海峡。海湾地区的持续冲突严重扰乱了航运路线，导致严重的供应瓶颈和价格飙升。
However, about one-third of the global seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing conflict in the Gulf has severely disrupted shipping routes, causing major supply bottlenecks and price surges.
限制化肥获取的后果并非即时显现，邓顿指出，需历经12个月才能见到对农作物的影响，且将因厄尔尼诺现象而加剧。
The consequences of restricted access to fertiliser were not immediate, Denton noted, as it took 12 months to see the effects on crops and would be compounded by El Nino.
“政客关注的是当下的问题，但这属于你所谓的‘隐性问题’，”他警告称，并指出解决之道取决于华盛顿与德黑兰达成协议，由联合国秘书长办公室监督。
“Politicians focus on the problems of today, but this is what you call a sleeper issue,” he warned, pointing to a solution that hinged on an agreement between Washington and Tehran, overseen by the UN’s secretary general office.
谈及东盟可发挥的作用，邓顿强调，成员国不实施出口管制至关重要。
On the role Asean could play to help itself, Denton stressed it was very important for member states not to introduce export controls.
“该地区一些经济体实际上阻碍了化肥流通，试图保护本国供应商。这扭曲了市场状况，并实际上加剧了价格上涨，”他说。
“A number of economies around this region have actually inhibited access to fertiliser movement to try and protect their own suppliers. That distorts market conditions, and that actually adds to price increases,” he said.
邓顿补充道，这一问题应成为新加坡2027年担任东盟轮值主席国期间的重点关注议题。
This issue should be a key focus of Singapore’s tenure as Asean chair in 2027, Denton added.
“东盟保持关注并采取行动反对任何出口管制非常重要。真正确保在联合国层面聚焦此事——并大声疾呼支持采取行动以避免粮食危机——将至关重要，”他说。
“Asean maintaining its focus and action against any export controls is very important. To actually ensure that there’s focus on this at the United Nations – and that they’re vocal in their support of getting something done to avert a food crisis – would be very important,” he said.
尽管美国和伊朗已参与该提案并理解相关机制，邓顿指出，双方尚未达成一致。“问题在于：他们是否愿为发展中新兴经济体因饥饿而产生的政治后果负责？后果将源于未能落实这一部署。” 在论坛的主旨演讲中，新加坡贸易关系部长傅海燕表示，作为主席国，新加坡旨在深化一体化，增强东盟应对变化的能力，并拓展该区域集团与现有及新盟友的伙伴关系。
While the US and Iran have engaged with the proposal and understand the mechanism, Denton noted that they had yet to agree. “The issue is: do they want to be responsible for the political consequences of hunger in developing emerging economies? It’ll come from a failure to deploy this.”In a keynote address at the forum, Singapore Minister-in-charge of Trade Relations Grace Fu said that as chair, the city state aimed to deepen integration, strengthen Asean’s capacity to respond to change and expand the regional bloc’s partnerships with existing and new allies.
傅海燕也是永续发展与环境部长。她说：“总的来说，这些努力是为了给企业提供更多发展途径和更多应对颠覆的选择——通过开拓新市场、加强互联互通，以及在不确定时期保持贸易畅通。”在炉边谈话中，傅海燕强调，新加坡将自己视为一个“非常不可预测、充满不确定性的世界”中值得信赖的锚点。
Fu, who is also Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, said: “Taken together, these efforts are about giving businesses more pathways to grow and more options to navigate disruption – by opening new markets, strengthening connectivity and keeping trade flowing even in times of uncertainty.”During a fireside chat, Fu stressed that Singapore saw itself as a trusted anchor in a “very unpredictable, uncertain world”. She said that Singapore’s port had been very busy since the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as it had served as a hub for countries forced to divert goods and restructure their logistics.
她说，自霍尔木兹海峡发生中断以来，新加坡港口一直非常繁忙，因为它已成为那些被迫转移货物和重组物流的国家的枢纽。
“If you have a disruption in trade rules and therefore you need to rearrange your supply chain, Singapore would be the place for you to do that because we have the fundamental infrastructure, fundamental processes that probably reach the most number of countries, the shipping connectivity and so on,” Fu said.
傅海燕说：“如果贸易规则出现中断，因此你需要重新安排供应链，新加坡就是你做这件事的地方，因为我们拥有可能覆盖最多国家的基础设施和基础流程、航运连通性等等。”
By Jean Iau