尽管特朗普总统反对风能和太阳能，美国仍在以创纪录的速度增加清洁能源，但该行业的主要贸易组织警告称，这种增长最早可能在2028年出现“断崖式”下跌。为什么这很重要：这种脱节反映了能源政策与实际建设成果之间的长期滞后，也增加了目前参议院正在谈判的两党许可协议的重要性。现状：美国清洁能源协会首席执行官杰森·格鲁梅特（Jason Grumet）告诉Axios，风能和太阳能的发展目前仍受益于有利的经济环境以及在特朗普重返白宫之前启动的项目。
America is adding record amounts of clean power despite President Trump's opposition to wind and solar — but the industry's top trade group warns the growth could fall off a "cliff" as soon as 2028. Why it matters: The disconnect illustrates the long lag between energy policy and what actually gets built, raising the stakes for a bipartisan permitting deal under negotiation now in the Senate. State of play: Wind and solar development is still benefiting from favorable economics and projects launched before Trump returned to the White House, Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, told Axios.
- “如果政府继续阻挠清洁能源项目的审批，你就会开始看到断崖式下跌，”格鲁梅特说。他表示，这种下滑可能在2028年或2029年变得明显。推动新闻发展的因素：参议院谈判代表预计最早将于周三公布一项旨在加快能源审批的两党协议，尽管最终投票预计要到中期选举后才会进行。字里行间：民主党人一直寻求保证，即政府将允许停滞的风能和太阳能项目推进，以此作为支持更广泛许可改革的交换条件。
• "If the administration continues to block the permitting of clean power, you'll start to see a cliff," said Grumet, who said the drop could become apparent in 2028 or 2029. Driving the news: Senate negotiators are expected to unveil a bipartisan deal to speed energy permitting as soon as Wednesday, though any final vote isn't expected until after the midterm elections. Between the lines: Democrats have sought assurances that the administration would allow stalled wind and solar projects to advance in exchange for supporting broader permitting changes.
- 格鲁梅特称这一初步达成的协议“令人鼓舞”，并提到了其技术中立的方法以及关于政府批准风能项目的条款。
• Grumet called the apparent agreement "encouraging," citing its technology-neutral approach and provisions for administration approval of wind projects.
- “在年底前通过该法案至关重要，”他说。数据说明：根据美国能源信息署的数据，风能和太阳能占开发商今年计划增加到美国电网的新增电力容量的近三分之二。
• "Passage before the end of the year is essential," he said. By the numbers: Wind and solar account for nearly two-thirds of the new power capacity developers plan to add to the U.S. grid this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
- 格鲁梅特的组织本月早些时候报告称，2026年上半年新增的风能、太阳能和电池容量创下了历史纪录。白宫方面表示，这些数字反映的是特朗普已经改变的政策。
• The first half of 2026 was a record for new wind, solar and battery capacity, Grumet's group reported earlier this month. The White House says those numbers reflect policies Trump has already changed.
- 上周在Axios举办的一场活动中，当被问及美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据时，白宫国家能源主导委员会执行主任贾罗德·阿根（Jarrod Agen）表示：“那是过去政策遗留下来的问题。”
• When presented with the EIA figures at an Axios event last week, Jarrod Agen, executive director of the White House National Energy Dominance Council, said: "That's a carryover from the policies of the past."
- 特朗普于2025年7月签署的共和党税收与支出法案加速了针对新建风能和太阳能项目的联邦税收抵免到期。项目通常必须在今年7月4日前动工，或在2028年前投入运营，才有资格获得抵免。事实核查：金融咨询公司拉扎德（Lazard）的分析被广泛用于比较发电成本，该公司今年得出的结论是，即便不考虑补贴，可再生能源仍然是成本最低的新型发电方式，尽管该分析并未涵盖风能和太阳能固有的波动性。
• The Republican tax-and-spending law Trump signed in July 2025 accelerated the expiration of federal tax credits for new wind and solar projects. Projects generally must begin construction by July 4 of this year, or must come online before 2028 to qualify. Reality check: Lazard, the financial advisory firm whose analysis is widely used to compare power-generation costs, concluded this year that renewables remain the cheapest forms of new power generation on an unsubsidized basis, although the analysis doesn't capture inherent variability of wind and solar.
- “我们认为，在一个诚实、竞争的市场中，我们处于非常稳固的地位，但没有任何行业能够克服人为的阻碍，”格鲁梅特（Grumet）说道。总体形势：这场博弈正值美国电力需求因行业繁荣而迅速增长之际。格鲁梅特认为，这正是特朗普能源政策核心存在的矛盾。
• "We feel that we're on very firm ground in an honest, competitive marketplace, but no industry can overcome active obstruction," Grumet said. The big picture: The fight is unfolding as U.S. electricity demand rises rapidly, driven largely by the boom. That's a contradiction Grumet sees at the heart of Trump's energy policy.
- “排斥可再生能源的迫切性，超过了降低能源成本的迫切性，”他说道，并称这种做法“令人愤慨”。另一方观点：“总统对风能和太阳能的问题在于，它们无法解决我们目前的电力需求，”阿根说道，并转而强调了核能的重要性。
• "The imperative to repudiate renewables is a greater incentive than the imperative to lower energy costs," he said, calling that "outrageous." The other side: "The issue the president has with wind and solar is, is it's not going to be the solution for the power needs that we have," Agen said, highlighting nuclear power instead.
- 他否认了政府一概反对可再生能源的前提，称这些能源本不应获得优惠补贴，并提到了对中国能源设备的依赖。
• He rejected the premise that the administration categorically opposes renewable energy, saying they shouldn't have received preferential subsidies and citing dependence on China for energy equipment.
- 一位白宫官员周二晚间表示，政府与立法者已就一项“强有力的两党”方案达成一致，但警告称，如果协议不能迅速推进，政府的承诺“不会无限期保持不变”。聚焦：五角大楼在审查陆上风电项目方面的延误是许可辩论中的一个关键争议点。
• A White House official said Tuesday night the administration and lawmakers had agreed to a "strong bipartisan" package, but warned that administration commitments "will not remain frozen indefinitely" if the deal doesn't advance quickly. Zoom in: Pentagon delays in reviewing onshore wind projects are a key sticking point in the permitting debate.
- "仅仅对每个进来的项目盖章通过是不好的," Agen说。
• "Just rubber stamping every project to come in is not good," Agen said.
- Grumet反驳称,合理的军事关切是可以解决的:"这些都是可解决的问题。"
• Grumet countered that legitimate military concerns can be addressed: "These are solvable problems." After Congress accelerated
国会加速去年风能和太阳能税收抵免到期, Grumet表示行业原本预期"能有一定程度的回归常态"。 • 相反,据ACP统计,各机构采取了至少17项限制开发的行动,包括叫停海上风电租赁、在许可中增加政治审查以及延迟五角大楼对陆上风电项目的审查。
the wind and solar tax credits' expiration last year, Grumet said the industry expected "some return to normalcy." • Instead, agencies took what ACP counts as at least 17 actions restricting development, including halting offshore wind leasing, adding political reviews to permits and delaying Pentagon reviews of onshore wind projects. Catch up quick:
快速回顾:联邦法院已叫停其中几项举措,包括全面冻结风电审批、可再生能源许可障碍以及五角大楼审查。
Federal courts have blocked several of these moves, including the broad freeze on wind approvals, barriers to renewable permitting and Pentagon reviews.
我们正在关注:特朗普在8月发布了一项行政命令,可能限制与中国有关联的某些电气设备。
What we're watching: Trump issued an executive order in August that could restrict certain electrical equipment with ties to China.
- 视能源部如何广泛解读该命令而定, Grumet表示,"这有可能对经济造成毁灭性打击。"
• Depending on how broadly the Energy Department interprets it, Grumet said, "it has the potential to be devastating to the economy."
接下来:参议院的许可协议可能成为包括可再生能
What's next: The Senate permitting deal could be a bright spot for all energy types, including renewable energy, but final passage is far from guaranteed.