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一年前的今天，汽车行业告别了一项可观的联邦税收抵免，该政策曾帮助降低电动汽车成本。国会投票通过2025年的《一项宏伟美好法案》取消了这项抵免——购车者在2025年9月30日抵免截止前纷纷抢购以享受优惠。那么，自那以后电动汽车销量表现如何？
One year ago today, the auto industry bid farewell to a hefty federal tax credit that helped bring down the cost of electric vehicles. Congress had voted to kill it as part of 2025's One Big Beautiful Bill Act — and car buyers rushed to take advantage of the credit before it ended on September 30, 2025. So, how have EV sales fared since?
四处打听，你会得到两种答案。一种说法是电动汽车销量下滑，这根据Cox Automotive和Edmunds等汽车分析公司的数据。这丝毫不令人意外。
Ask around, and you get two answers. One is that EV sales are down, according to data from car analytics companies like Cox Automotive and Edmunds. No one is the least bit surprised.
2022年8月《通胀削减法案》生效后，将抵免范围扩大至更多买家，当时电动汽车约占新车销量的5%。随后三年，电动汽车销量增长，先后突破6%、7%、8%。根据Edmunds数据，2025年9月，随着人们抢在税收抵免最后时刻享受优惠，这一比例飙升至11.4%。
When the Inflation Reduction Act took effect in August 2022, expanding the credit to more buyers, EVs made up about 5% of new car sales. Over the following three years, EV sales grew, ticking past 6, then 7, then 8%. They swelled to 11.4% in September 2025, as people rushed to take advantage of the tax credit's final days, according to data from Edmunds.
Cox Automotive的数据显示类似反弹。电动汽车销量在9月左右见顶——随后两个季度因抵免到期而下滑。与上年同期相比，2025年底销量下跌36%。2026年第一季度同比下跌27%。
Data from Cox Automotive shows a similar bounce. EV sales peaked around September — then dropped in the following two quarters once the credit expired. Compared to the year before, in late 2025, they fell 36%. They were down 27% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026.
今年，新电动汽车销量较为低迷——但保持稳定。根据Edmunds数据，2026年全年电动汽车稳定占所有新车销量的5%至6%区间。Cox Automotive报告类似数字。Edmunds洞察总监Ivan Drury表示："这条轨迹显然不像以前那样，但并未断崖式下跌，这与一些人的预测截然不同。"
This year, new EV sales have been more sluggish — but they're stable. EVs have steadily accounted for somewhere between 5 and 6% of all new car sales throughout 2026, according to Edmunds. Cox Automotive reports similar figures. This trajectory is " clearly nothing like what it was previously, but it has not fallen off of a cliff, which is what some people's predictions would've been," said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.
但若问Sal Iqbal过去一年电动汽车销量如何，你会得到另一个答案——而且这个更令人惊讶。他是纽约Massapequa丰田特许经销店的总销售经理，在那里工作近10年。今年他注意到：混合动力车销量大涨。"我们过去塞纳车型会在车场积压，" Iqbal 说道，指的是这款丰田车型，和其他混合动力车一样，它使用燃油发动机和电池驱动的电动机。"
But ask Sal Iqbal how EV sales have fared over the last year, and you'll get another answer — and this one is more surprising. He's the general sales manager of the Toyota franchise in Massapequa, New York, where he's worked for nearly 10 years. And this year he noticed: Hybrid sales are way up. "We used to have Siennas sit on the lot before," Iqbal said, referring to the Toyota model which, like other hybrids, uses a gas engine and battery-powered electric motor.
我们过去不得不苦苦哀求人们买走塞纳，而现在我们根本留不住库存。人们排队抢购塞纳。" Drury 表示赞同：塞纳成了抢手货。多年前，他说，像这样的小型货车被认为不受欢迎，"而现在就像是，'哦，如果我能弄到一辆很棒的塞纳，我什么都愿意干。'" 他说，丰田的 RAV4，一款小型混合动力 SUV，也发生了同样的情况。
" We used to have to literally beg people to take a Sienna, and now we can't keep them on the shelf. People are lining up for Siennas." Drury concurs: Siennas are a whole thing. Years ago, he said, minivans like these were considered undesirable, "and now it's like, 'Oh, if I could get my hands on a sweet Sienna, I'd do anything.'" The same thing, he said, is happening with Toyota's RAV4, a small hybrid SUV.
而在全国范围内，美国购车者确实正大举转向混合动力车。根据 Edmunds 的数据，过去一年销量增长了近 27%。
And nationally, American car buyers are really gravitating towards hybrids. Sales are up almost 27% in the past year, according to data from Edmunds.
是因为联邦电动汽车税收抵免取消了吗？也许。是因为汽油价格在全国范围内仍徘徊在每加仑 4.50 美元左右吗？也有可能。Edmunds 的数据显示，混合动力车销量在 3 月份激增，就在美国对伊朗开战后不久——这是分析师在制定 2026 年预测时雷达上没有的地缘政治变化。
Is it because the federal EV tax credit went away? Maybe. Is it because gasoline prices are still hovering around $4.50 per gallon nationally? Also maybe. Data from Edmunds shows hybrid sales jumped up in March, shortly after the U.S. began its war in Iran — a geopolitical shift that was not on analysts' radars when they made their forecasts for 2026.
混合动力车的崛起，在电动汽车行业表现平淡的一年里，算是一抹亮色。"混合动力车正处于风口，且持续处于风口，" Cox Automotive 行业洞察总监、研究向电动汽车转型的 Stephanie Valdez Streaty 说道。
The rise of the hybrid has been a kind of bright spot in a year that's been flat for the EV industry. " Hybrids are having their moment, are continuing to have their moment," said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive and who studies the transition to EVs.
Drury 是这样表述的："电动汽车的衰退凸显了混合动力车有多优秀。" 联邦税收抵免如何运作 电动汽车税收抵免由国会于 2008 年创立，但 2022 年的《通胀削减法案》给了它巨大推动，重组了抵免的使用方式，并调整了部分车型符合资格的规则。它还增加了购买二手车的抵免，这一扩展旨在将福利惠及低收入和中等收入买家。
Drury put it this way: " The downfall of the EV has highlighted how good the hybrid is." How the federal tax credit worked The EV tax credit was created by Congress in 2008, but it received a big boost from 2022's Inflation Reduction Act, which restructured how the credit could be used and adjusted some of the rules for which cars could qualify. It also added a credit for purchasing used cars, an expansion designed to extend benefits to low-and-middle-income buyers.
在税收抵免政策的最新形式下，购买或租赁新电动汽车的人最高可获得7500美元的联邦税收抵免，该抵免额还可以与各州的激励措施叠加使用。符合条件的二手车最高可获得4000美元的税收抵免。
In the credits' most recent form, people who bought or leased a new electric vehicle could earn a federal tax credit worth up to $7,500, which could be stacked on top of state incentives. The credit for used vehicles was up to $4,000 on qualifying vehicles.
对于购买新车的人来说，要获得抵免资格，他们必须购买在北美制造且零部件比例达到一定要求的电动汽车。此外，购车者还有收入上限限制。
For people buying new cars to qualify, they needed to purchase EVs that were made in, and contained a certain percentage of parts from, North America. There was also an income cap for buyers.
这本来是一项不错的优惠，但对于租赁电动汽车的人来说，优惠力度更大。他们可以将该抵免额用于任何电动汽车，且不受价格、产地或个人收入的限制。
That was a good deal, but it was an even better deal for people leasing EVs. They could use that credit toward any EV car — without limits on price, where the vehicle was made, or their income.
“这个项目太好了，以至于买车几乎变得毫无意义，”伊克巴尔说。
"The program was so good, it almost made no sense to buy the car," Iqbal said.
无论如何，这项税收抵免政策有助于激发人们对电动汽车的兴趣，并克服驾驶员对电动汽车的一些顾虑。根据考克斯汽车公司（Cox Automotive）的数据，电动汽车的标价通常高于燃油车；8月份电动汽车的平均成交价超过5.4万美元，而燃油车的平均成交价略低于5万美元。长期以来，驾驶员一直担心续航里程有限、充电桩不足，或者更换昂贵的锂离子电池需要花费数千美元。
Either way, the credit helped juice interest in EVs, and overcome some of the reservations drivers have about them. EVs generally have a higher sticker price than gas-powered cars; the average EV transaction price was over $54,000 in August, compared to an average of just under $50,000 for gas-powered vehicles, according to Cox Automotive. Drivers have long worried about limited range, or a lack of charging points, or the expense of replacing an enormous lithium-ion battery that can cost thousands of dollars.
国会共和党人去年取消了电动汽车税收抵免政策，他们长期以来一直主张应由市场而非政府来影响美国人的购车选择，并将该税收抵免称为浪费性支出。
Congressional Republicans got rid of the EV tax credit last year after long arguing that markets, not the government, should influence what Americans drive, and dubbed the tax credit wasteful spending.
与此同时，特朗普政府削弱了其他促进电动汽车发展的政策。它取消了加利福尼亚州制定严格排放标准的能力。它取消了对未能达到联邦节能汽车生产标准的汽车制造商的处罚。本周，它全面缩减了这些标准。
Meanwhile, the Trump administration chipped away at other policies that promoted electric vehicles. It scrapped California's ability to set strict emissions standards. It nixed penalties on carmakers who don't meet federal standards for making enough fuel-efficient vehicles. This week, it scaled back those standards altogether.
当伊克巴尔听说联邦电动汽车税收抵免政策即将取消时，他感到非常不安。
When Iqbal heard the EV federal tax credit was going away, he was nervous.
“我们当时根本不知道会发生什么，”伊克巴尔说道。尽管在他工作的经销商那里，销售的车辆中约有10%是电动汽车，但他表示：“我们不能只是把库存积压在那里——这些库存只会继续贬值。”果然，2025年9月30日之后，直到11月中旬，他们才又卖出一辆电动汽车。
"We didn't know what was going to happen," Iqbal said. Even though about 10% of the vehicles sold at the dealership where he works are electric, he said, "We can't just sit on inventory. It's only going to depreciate more and more." Sure enough, after Sept. 30, 2025, Iqbal says they didn't sell another EV until mid-November. That trend bore out nationally.
这一趋势在全国范围内都得到了印证：在税收优惠政策取消前的几个月里，人们纷纷抢购电动汽车；但根据Edmunds的数据，随后几个月电动汽车的销量急剧下滑：2025年9月有超过11%的购车者选择了电动汽车，而一个月后这一比例下降到了5.8%。
People rushed to buy electric vehicles months leading up to the tax credit going away, but EV sales slumped in the next few months; over 11% of car buyers bought electric vehicles in September 2025, but only 5.8% did a month later, Edmunds data shows. Over the last year, Iqbal says, EVs overall have been a tougher sell without the help of that credit.
伊克巴尔表示，自从税收优惠政策取消后，电动汽车的销量一直很低迷。他说：“毕竟，很多人仍然对电动汽车的电池系统或充电设施感到担忧；他们害怕在行驶途中电池突然耗尽电量。”
After all, Iqbal said, some people are still nervous about EV batteries, or about charging. "A lot of people are still scared of the electrical side of EVs because it gives them anxiety of losing charge on the middle of the road," he said.
相比之下，混合动力汽车则没有这些问题。伊克巴尔认为混合动力汽车“结合了电动车的优点和传统燃油车的优势”——它们既可以使用电力驱动，也可以使用汽油驱动，因此燃油经济性更好，价格也比电动汽车更亲民。
Hybrids, though, inspire no such worries. The hybrid is, he said, "the best of both worlds." Hybrids are having a moment Part-electric, but still powered by gas, hybrids have greater fuel economy than traditional gas vehicles, and a lower price point than EVs.
“混合动力汽车其实一直都存在，只是长期以来没有受到太多关注，”德鲁里（Drury）说道。不过自从伊朗战争爆发后，混合动力汽车受到了更多关注；Edmunds的统计数据显示，消费者对混合动力汽车和电动汽车的搜索量都大幅增加了。不过德鲁里认为，大多数消费者要么放弃了购买电动汽车的计划，要么干脆选择了混合动力汽车，很可能是因为混合动力汽车的价格更加实惠。
"Hybrids were always there. They're always kind of lurking in the background of attention," said Drury. But after the war with Iran began, they got a lot more attention. Drury said traffic on the Edmunds site for both hybrids and EVs climbed. But ultimately, he said, "many consumers either did not move forward with their EV plans or they just bought a hybrid instead," most likely because of the lower price point.
在他看来，2026年最成功的汽车制造商无疑是丰田——这家公司拥有众多混合动力车型，并且在混合动力汽车领域拥有悠久的生产经验。近年来，丰田将其一些最受欢迎的车型（如RAV4和Camry）都改为了纯混合动力版本。“丰田多次证明了他们的预测是正确的，”德鲁里说道。
To him, the clearest victor in 2026 has been Toyota, a company with a hybrid-heavy lineup and a long history of making them. In the past couple of years, Toyota's transitioned some of its most popular cars, like the RAV4 and the Camry, to be hybrid-only. "Toyota had their 'I told you so' moment many times over now," Drury said. Valdez Streaty of Cox agrees. " Toyota is definitely, I think, capitalizing on this period where we have high gas prices," she said.
Cox公司的Valdez Streaty对此表示赞同。她说：“我认为丰田绝对是在利用当前油价高企的时期。你可以节省燃油开支。如果你关心环境，还能获得一些环保效益。此外，你也不必担心充电问题，这消除了一个使用上的痛点。”丰田公司没有回应采访请求，也没有提供销售统计数据。但Drury表示，通过观察车辆在车行停留的时间，可以了解市场对车辆的需求情况。
"So you can save money on gas. If you care about the environment, you get some of those environmental benefits. And also, you don't have to worry about charging, so it takes away that friction point." Toyota didn't return requests for an interview or for sales statistics. But Drury says you can learn a lot about demand for vehicles by seeing how long they spend on the lot.
在马萨佩夸（Massapequa），Iqbal表示，混合动力汽车正处于热销状态。他说，过去一年里，他们的平均库存周转天数仅为12天。“这意味着如果工厂不再发货，我只需12天就能卖光所有库存，”他说。
And in Massapequa, Iqbal said, hybrids are flying off the lot. On average, over the past year, Iqbal said they've had a 12-day supply. "That means if I don't get another vehicle from the factory, it will take me 12 days to sell out of my whole inventory," he said.
Drury表示，这种数据几乎闻所未闻，显示出市场对丰田汽车的高需求：“我们认为任何低于14天的库存周期基本上就等于售罄了。”混合动力汽车的增长势头不仅限于丰田。现代汽车8月份的混合动力汽车销量同比增长了33%，占其8月总销量的近30%。起亚汽车8月份的混合动力汽车销量则同比激增了99%。
Those kinds of numbers are basically unheard of, said Drury, and indicate the high demand for Toyota vehicles: "We consider anything under 14 days basically sold out." The momentum for hybrids goes beyond Toyota. Hyundai sold 33% more hybrid vehicles in August compared to the year before — making up almost 30% of its total August sales. Kia's August hybrid sales rose 99% compared to the previous year.
Iqbal说，当潜在的混合动力汽车买家来到马萨佩夸的丰田经销店时，他们都已经做足了功课。
Iqbal said when potential hybrid buyers come in to the Toyota dealership in Massapequa, they have done their homework.
“有时候他们比我们更了解这些车，”他说。“他们对每一个小细节都研究得非常深入。他们甚至知道后备箱的具体立方英尺数。”但他表示，最重要的是，他们知道自己将节省不少油费。“他们知道同样的50美元油费现在能让他们开两周而不是一周，对于不同的人来说，这可能就是决定性的因素，”Iqbal说。
"They know more about the cars than we do sometimes," he said. " They are literally in-depth with every little feature. They know the cubic feet of the trunk." But most of all, he said, they know that they won't be spending as much on gas. "They know that same $50 in gas is taking them two weeks instead of one week, and that can make or break somebody, depending on who you are," Iqbal said.
毕竟，他说：“没人希望油价高企。我们都希望油价更低。但我们能做什么呢？难道就不开车了吗？”二手电动汽车市场正在增长。对于电动汽车买家和卖家来说，另一个可能出现的亮点正在显现，那就是日益兴起的二手车市场。
After all, he said, " Nobody wants gas prices to be high. We all want them to be lower. But what can we do? Am I not going to drive?" The market for used EVs is growing There is a second possible bright spot that's beginning to glow for EV buyers and sellers — and that's a burgeoning used car market.
这是税收优惠政策留下的“遗产”：由于许多人曾利用该政策来租赁电动汽车，随着越来越多的电动汽车到期并流入二手车市场，这些车辆开始出现在二手车交易场所中。
It's a legacy from the era of the tax credit: because so many people used it to lease EVs, as more and more of these vehicles come off lease, they are showing up on used car lots as inventory.
据 Cox Automotive 的 Valdez Streaty 介绍，尽管二手车市场中电动汽车的比例还不到 3%，但这一比例正在持续增长。她预计明年将有超过 30 万辆电动汽车到期并进入二手车市场，而且这一趋势还会继续加剧。
Even though used EVs make up less than 3% of the used car market, that number is growing, said Valdez Streaty of Cox Automotive. In the next year, more than 300,000 vehicles will come off lease, she said — and she expects those numbers to keep rising.
这意味着电动汽车可能会以更低的价格被更多消费者所购买，因为二手车通常比新车更便宜。气候政策研究机构 Atlas Public Policy 的创始人 Nick Nigro 表示，随着电动汽车数量的增加，它们将逐渐被消费者所接受。
This means EVs could be more accessible to buyers at lower price points, since used cars are generally cheaper than new ones. And, Nick Nigro, founder of the climate-focused think tank Atlas Public Policy said, seeing more EVs around will help normalize them.
Nigro 说：“这可能是过去几年对电动汽车发展最有利的情况了。绝大多数消费者都会选择购买二手车，而二手车正是道路上行驶车辆的主要组成部分。” Valdez Streaty 认为，即使税收优惠政策取消，美国汽车制造商仍面临继续生产电动汽车的压力——毕竟他们必须在全球市场上竞争。根据国际能源署的数据，2025 年中国新售出的汽车中有一半以上是电动汽车；去年欧洲市场上销售的汽车中也有超过 30% 是电动汽车。
" That's probably the single best for electric vehicles in the last several years," Nigro said. " The vast majority of people buy used vehicles, and that's what makes up most of the vehicles on the road." Valdez Streaty says that even without the tax credit, American automakers are under some pressure to keep making EVs. After all, they must compete globally. Outside the U.S., the market for electric vehicles is picking up speed. In China, more than half of new cars sold in 2025 were electric, and over 30% of cars sold last year in Europe were electric, according to the International Energy Agency.
与此同时，对中国制造的电动汽车的需求持续增长——中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪的销量甚至超过了特斯拉。
Meanwhile, demand for Chinese-made electric vehicles continues to grow; the Chinese EV company BYD Auto sells more electric cars than Tesla.
Valdez Streaty 表示，税收优惠政策的取消不会阻止汽车制造商继续生产电动汽车：“这只是改变了他们的生产计划和推广策略而已。”她预计 2026 年的电动汽车市场将会达到一个新的平衡状态：“对新电动汽车的需求依然存在，但规模会变小且更加稳定；而二手车和混合动力汽车的增长势头则会更加强劲。”
The loss of the tax credit won't stop automakers from producing EVs, she said: "It's kind of just shifted their timeline and the way they roll things out." Valdez Streaty sees the EV market in 2026 as finding a new equilibrium. "There's still underlying demand for new EVs, but at a lower and more stable level, while growth is stronger in used EVs and hybrids," she said.
虽然电动汽车的普及速度可能会放缓，但她仍然坚信：“未来依然属于电动汽车。”
EV adoption may be slower, Valdez Streaty said. But, she continued, "I think the future's still electric."