奥马哈，内布拉斯加州——海军陆战队退伍军人阿雷利亚诺是特朗普的坚定支持者，他曾三次把票投给这位总统；但他说，11月不会把票投给共和党籍参议员彼得·里凯etts。上月底，奥马哈市中心S.G. Roi雪茄店接受采访时，35岁的烟草店老板阿雷利亚诺表示，获得该州民主党支持的独立候选人丹·奥斯本比里凯茨“更能为民众着想”。
OMAHA, Neb. — Marine Corps veteran Gunner Arellano is a Donald Trump man — he voted for the president three times — but, he said, he won’t be casting a ballot for Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., in November. Dan Osborn, an independent who has the backing of the state’s Democratic Party, is “more for the people” than Ricketts, Arellano, a 35-year-old tobacconist, said in an interview at the S.G. Roi cigar shop in downtown Omaha late last month.
阿雷利亚诺虽然熟悉里凯茨——这位连任两届州长、在最富有参议员名单中名列前茅的政治人物——但他说，这位参议员出现的次数不够多。“那些政客到了选举的时候就想出来露个面，对吧？”他说，“你任期的 midway 才会在星期三下来，你懂的。”阿雷利亚诺表示，他会把票投给奥斯本。像他这样的选民，正是内布拉斯加州民主党以及全国民主党人士 hope 能在11月这个共和党占绝对优势的全州拿下其中一个参议院席位的原因。
While Arellano is familiar with Ricketts, a former two-term governor who ranks high on the list of wealthiest senators, he said that the senator isn’t present enough. “All those politicians, they want to come around when it’s election time, right?” he said. “Come down on a Wednesday in the middle of your term, you know.”Arellano said he’ll vote for Osborn, and voters like him are the reason that Democrats in Nebraska and at the national level hope they might be able to swipe a Senate seat in this heavily Republican state.
他们对攻下以奥马哈为中心、选情激烈的该州第2国会选区更加乐观；民主党总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年曾在该选区获胜，而共和党众议员唐·培根正在退休。同年，奥斯本对共和党籍参议员德布·费舍尔发起了一场势均力敌的竞选，让许多政治观察人士感到意外；费舍尔最终以略高于6个百分点的优势获胜，而特朗普则以20个百分点的优势拿下该州。
They’re even more optimistic about flipping the state’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, where Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won in 2024 and Republican Rep. Don Bacon is retiring. In that year, Osborn surprised many political observers by running a competitive campaign against Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., who ended up winning by a little more than 6 percentage points while Trump took the state by 20 points.
后一个优势，加上里凯茨在州长和参议员全州选举中屡次获胜的纪录，是共和党确信能够守住该席位的原因之一。8月下旬，NBC News记者沿80号州际公路走访了五个州的八个站点，考察选情激烈的国会选区以及参议员选举competitive的州，奥马哈是最后一站。民主党明年若要控制参议院，需要净增四个席位；内布拉斯加州已成为少数几个可能在11月展开激烈争夺的州之一。
The latter margin is one reason, along with Ricketts’ record of winning statewide races at the gubernatorial and Senate levels, that Republicans are confident they can keep the seat. Omaha was the last in an eight-stop, five-state tour that NBC News reporters took through battleground congressional districts — and states with competitive Senate races — along Interstate 80 in late August. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the chamber next year, and Nebraska has emerged at the edge of the small list of states that could be in play in November.
尽管该州缺乏足够的独立民调，但随着特朗普的支持率大幅下滑，共和党人正面临全国性的不利局面。在与伊朗的持续冲突、汽油和柴油价格上涨，以及特朗普的关税政策对美国农村地区造成严重破坏的背景下，民主党人看到了某种草原民粹主义的复苏，他们认为这将提振其候选人在这一腹地州的选情。
While there hasn’t been much in the way of independent polling of the state, Republicans are facing into a national wind as Trump’s approval ratings have cratered. Amid the ongoing war with Iran, rising prices for gas and diesel fuel, and Trump tariff policies that have wreaked havoc on rural America, Democrats see a resurgence of a brand of prairie populism that they believe will boost their candidates here in the heartland.
这就是为什么民主党人表示，他们并不像预期的那样担心共和党在竞选广告上的大量投入，无论是来自里基茨（Ricketts）还是外部团体。根据美国全国广播公司新闻频道（NBC News）对AdImpact数据的分析，自9月1日以来，共和党方面已在广告上投入了700万美元，并已预订了选举日前另外800万美元的广告位。奥斯本（Osborn）及其支持团体已投入350万美元，并预留了另外150万美元。
That’s why Democrats say they aren’t as worried as they might be about an influx of GOP ad spending on the race, both from Ricketts and outside groups. Since Sept. 1, the Republican side has spent $7 million on the air, with another $8 million booked before Election Day, according to AdImpact data analyzed by NBC News. Osborn and groups backing him have spent $3.5 million and have reserved another $1.5 million.
资金上的差距表明，共和党人对保住这个自1997年以来一直掌握在手中的席位感到担忧，或者至少他们决心确保不会对胜利掉以轻心。支持里基茨的“增长俱乐部”（Club for Growth）主席大卫·麦金托什（David McIntosh）在9月初的一次采访中表示：“我认为，当皮特（里基茨）开始对他（奥斯本）进行定义，并且一些外部团体介入做同样的事情时，这个席位将回归到我们安全的红色阵营。”
The money differential suggests Republicans are concerned about holding a seat that has been in their hands since 1997 — or at least committed to making sure they don’t take victory for granted. “I think you’re going to see, when Pete starts defining him [Osborn], and some of the outside groups come in to do that, then it’s going to go back to a safe red seat for us,” David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, which is backing Ricketts, said in an interview in early September.
内布拉斯加州民主党主席简·克里布（Jane Kleeb）在电话采访中表示，她认为资金不会起到决定性作用，因为共和党人和里基茨已经失去了选民的青睐。她说：“基本上，选民们在说，‘我们不买你们的账，’所以这不会有什么影响。”
Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said in a telephone interview that she believes the money won’t be dispositive because Republicans and Ricketts have worn out their welcome. “Basically, voters are saying, ‘We’re not buying what you’re selling,’” she said. “So it’s not going to matter.”
大多数共和党人仍会支持里基茨，但也有一些人认为奥斯本是他们会——或可能会——投票支持的候选人。45岁的埃尔克霍恩（Elkhorn）居民克里斯·霍尔德（Chris Holder）说：“他是个劳动者，工会成员，看起来很了解内布拉斯加州的方式，是个局外人。”他在联合太平洋铁路公司担任业务分析师。
Most Republicans will stick with Ricketts, but some see Osborn as a candidate they will — or could — vote for. “Working man, union guy, seems grounded in the ways of Nebraska, an outsider,” said Chris Holder, 45, of Elkhorn, who works as a business analyst at Union Pacific Railroad.
“我还没有对奥斯本进行深入了解，但我正在考虑支持他。”这对当地民主党人来说是一次轻松的推销。48岁的护士萨莉·盖斯特（Sally Guest）说，她的丈夫拉里（Larry）在一次事故后已经无法工作，他们夫妇俩都是民主党人，都渴望投票给奥斯本。“皮特·里基茨（Pete Ricketts）属于百万富翁阶层，他并没有很好地为内布拉斯加州服务，”萨莉说，“所以我希望我们不要再有更多的皮特·里基茨了。”
“I haven’t really vetted Osborn a whole bunch, but I am giving him consideration.”It’s an easy sale for Democrats here. Sally Guest, 48, aed nurse whose husband, Larry, no longer works after an accident, said the two of them, both Democrats, are eager to vote for Osborn. “Pete Ricketts is the millionaire class, and he’s not served Nebraska well,” Sally said. “So I hope we don’t get any more of Pete Ricketts.”
萨莉表示，由于她的工作和丈夫的残疾，盖斯特夫妇对医疗保险费用有着深刻的认识。里基茨曾投票支持特朗普支持的立法，该立法削减了《平价医疗法案》和医疗补助计划（Medicaid）。盖斯特夫妇为丈夫买了保险，但萨莉自己却没有——由于价格昂贵，她不得不自掏腰包支付医疗费用。“天哪，如果我遇到医疗紧急情况或者因为事故进了急诊室，”她说，“我不得不——我不知道——我死了可能更好。”
The Guests are acutely aware of health insurance costs because of her job and his disability, Sally said. Ricketts voted for Trump-backed legislation that cut back on the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid. The Guests have insurance for him but not for her — she pays for medical care out of pocket — because of the price. “God forbid I have a medical emergency or end up in the emergency room for an accident,” she said. “I’ll have to — I don’t know — I’d be better off dying.”
但奥马哈的一位业务发展经理托德·戈因（Todd Going）表示，他计划投票给里基茨。这位57岁、曾经是民主党人的戈因说，该党向左转的趋势——不仅是在内布拉斯加州，而是在全国范围内——让他对投票赋予其更多权力感到担忧。“在哪个政党代表工薪阶层和纳税人这个问题上，已经发生了彻底的转变，”他说，“现在我看到的民主党与我转投党派时完全不同了。甚至更加激进。你看到了正在发生的社会主义者和共产主义者那一套——全国各地所有这些选举中发生的事情，这让我非常担忧。”
But Todd Going, a business development manager in Omaha, said he plans to vote for Ricketts. A onetime Democrat, the 57-year-old Going said that party’s leftward movement — across the country, not just in Nebraska — makes him wary of voting to give it more power. “There’s been a total flip-flop on what party is representing the working class and the taxpayers,” he said. “And now I see the Democrat Party as totally different than even when I switched. It’s even more so. You see the socialists and the communists thing going on — what’s happening in all these elections all over the country, it’s very concerning to me.”
在众议院层面，所有接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）新闻采访的共和党人都表示，他们计划投票给奥马哈市议员布林克·哈丁（Brinker Harding），他正试图重现当年三次投票支持培根（Bacon）的那种选民基础。全国共和党人表示，这是一场艰难的竞选——这是目前由共和党人把持、但被《库克政治报告》评为倾向于民主党的两个席位之一——但他们认为哈丁的表现达到了预期。
At the House level, all the Republicans who spoke to NBC News said they plan to vote for Brinker Harding, an Omaha city councilman who is trying to re-create the kind of electorate that voted for Bacon three times. National Republicans say it’s a tough race — one of two currently held by Republicans that the Cook Political Report rates as leaning toward Democrats — but they believe Harding is hitting his marks.
“布林克·哈丁是一位在内布拉斯加州取得过显著成就的商业领袖和公职人员。他正在努力组建一个由共和党人、民主党人以及独立选民组成的联盟，这些人共同相信他的理念——即应该遵循常识而非极端观点，”全国共和党国会委员会发言人扎克·班农表示，并补充说哈丁“完全有潜力在11月的选举中获胜。”哈丁的对手是民主党人丹尼斯·鲍威尔，她在今年早些时候的初选中胜出。
“Brinker Harding is a business leader and public servant with a record of results in Nebraska who is building a coalition of Republicans, Democrats and independents alike who believe in his vision of common sense over crazy,” Zach Bannon, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said, adding that Harding is “poised to win this November.”His opponent, Democrat Denise Powell, won a crowded primary earlier this year.
尽管这些受访者对鲍威尔了解不多，但他们仍会按照拉里的说法“投票给民主党”。这个选区被民主党人称为“蓝色据点”（即民主党通常会赢得该选区的选举）——因为在总统选举中这个选区有时会支持民主党，而该州的其他地区以及大多数邻近州则倾向于支持共和党。虽然哈丁试图将鲍威尔描绘成一个极端分子，但鲍威尔却竭力将哈丁与唐纳德·特朗普联系在一起；全国范围内的民主党人也持同样的立场。
The Guests said they don’t know much about her, but they will, as Larry put it, “vote blue” in a district that Democrats call the “blue dot” because it sometimes goes for their party in presidential elections while the rest of the state and most neighboring states typically vote Republican red. While Harding is portraying Powell as too extreme for the district, she is tying him as tightly as she can to Trump. So are national Democrats.
民主党国会竞选委员会发言人麦迪逊·安德鲁斯表示：“内布拉斯加的选民希望找到一个能为他们发声、在国会中为他们争取权益的人，而不是一个只会盲目追随其他政党意愿的傀儡。”
“Nebraska voters want someone who will go to Congress and fight for them, not another party rubber stamp,” said Madison Andrus, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, adding that Harding “bends the knee to Donald Trump.”