对总理马克·卡尼及其政府来说，一项迫在眉睫的政治考验即将到来——这项考验在过去十多年里一直未被联邦政府重视。这项考验最早将在周一出现。
There is an immediate political test looming for Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government as early as Monday — one that has not been on the political radar federally for more than a decade. And it's one that does not seem to be front and centre of the federal agenda yet.
本周，西海岸的一个液化天然气（LNG）项目的扩建工作已经启动，阿尔伯塔省的高速铁路规划也被提交给了联邦政府的相关部门（即“重大项目办公室”）。外界普遍预计，西海岸的管道建设项目将被列为“国家重点项目”，以加快审批流程。
This week has so far seen the expansion of an LNG plant on the West Coast and the referral of a high-speed rail strategy in Alberta to the Major Projects Office. It is widely expected the West Coast pipeline will be designated a project of national interest to speed the approval process along.
卡尼总理寄希望于这些项目能够推动加拿大经济的发展，同时帮助应对西部地区面临的严峻政治挑战。其中最紧迫的挑战就是阿尔伯塔省将于10月19日举行的公投——该公投将决定该省是否应该启动脱离加拿大的进程。
The prime minister is banking on these projects to grow the Canadian economy, but also help deal with the very real political challenges in the West. That includes, of course, the Oct. 19 Alberta referendum on whether the province should start a process to leave Canada.
根据9月28日的最新民意调查结果，魁北克党（PQ）很可能在下次选举中赢得多数席位并组建新政府。不过在此之前，魁北克省还需先选出新的省政府。
PQ enters majority territory in latest election polls September 28 Duration But before that, Quebec will choose a new government. Public opinion polling shows it is likely that the Parti Québécois will win, with the party now closing in on majority territory.
魁北克上次出现主权主义政府是在2014年，当时总理保琳·马鲁瓦领导的魁北克党在执政不到两年后就被选民赶下台。不过，当时的政府并未提及举行公投的计划。事实上，要追溯到2003年的魁北克大选：当时伯纳德·兰德里试图继承吕西安·布沙尔的主张，承诺如果自己有“绝对的胜算”就会推动公投的举行；但他最终在选举中败给了魁北克自由党领袖让·查雷斯。
The last time Quebec had a sovereignist government was 2014 when Premier Pauline Marois's PQ was voted out after less than two years in office. But there was little to no talk of a referendum from that government In fact, you have to go all the way back to the last Quebec election I covered, in 2003, when Bernard Landry tried to pick up the mantle of Lucien Bouchard and promised a referendum if he had the "mortal certainty" he would win it. Landry lost that election to Quebec Liberal Leader Jean Charest.
现任魁北克党领袖保罗-皮埃尔·普拉蒙东明确表示，他不会在唐纳德·特朗普卸任之前举行公投，理由是特朗普政府的政策具有高度不确定性，可能会影响公投的结果。
The current PQ leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has promised not to hold a referendum until after Donald Trump is no longer president, citing the volatility of that administration and how it could impact results.
但联邦领导人不应将这一决定误解为对魁北克独立事业缺乏支持。事实上，圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东表示，尽管大多数民意调查显示只有30%的魁北克人真正关心独立公投的问题，他依然保持乐观态度。
But federal leaders should not mistake that decision for lack of commitment to the sovereignist cause In fact, St-Pierre Plamondon says he remains optimistic despite what most polls show, namely that only 30 per cent of Quebecers are interested in a referendum at all. In the last debate of the campaign, St-Pierre Plamondon pointed to something former premier and PQ leader Jacques Parizeau would say: "We shouldn't be afraid of democracy."
在竞选活动的最后一场辩论中，圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东引用了前魁北克省政府总理雅克·帕里佐的话：“我们不应害怕民主。”问题并不在于公投本身；真正的威胁在于：如果魁北克党（PQ）赢得选举，其领导人可能会采取更为强硬的立场。渥太华也必须为此做好准备。
It is not just the real threat of a referendum — that will become a contentious issue should the Parti Québécois pull off a victory. Ottawa will also have to be prepared for a more aggressive stance from the PQ leader. "I think it is difficult to find more evident declines and reversals than over the past 10 years," St-Pierre Plamondon said in an editorial board interview this week with La Presse.
“我认为，在过去10年里，魁北克的政治局势发生了极其明显的衰退和转变，”圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东本周在接受《La Presse》杂志采访时说道，“法语地位的下降、魁北克在医疗资源及移民政策方面的诉求不断减弱，其实都是联邦政府蓄意破坏的结果。”所有省份的政府都在为自己的权益而努力，试图从联邦政府那里争取更多资源；但只有那些通过选举获得独立公投授权的政府，才会真正提出这些要求。
"It is not referendums that are to blame for the decline of French, the decline in our demands for health transfers and that of immigration, that has been sabotaged by the federal government." All premiers and provinces fight for their jurisdictions and to get more from Ottawa.
近四分之一的魁北克选民已经提前投下了10月5日大选的选票。通过“Platform Tracker”工具，可以对比魁北克主要政党在2026年大选中的竞选承诺。以圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东为例：作为总理，他承诺废除现有的“政府间事务部长”这一职位，而是设立一个专门负责推动魁北克独立事务的部长。
But only one of them will make those demands elected with the mandate to hold a referendum on independence. Nearly a quarter of Quebec voters cast advance ballots for Oct. 5 election Platform Tracker Compare the promises of Quebec’s major parties in the 2026 election Case in point for what awaits Carney's government: as premier, St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to get rid of an intergovernmental affairs minister. Instead he would have a minister of independence, tasked with making gains for Quebec.
在当前这个需要“团结一致、共同应对与美国贸易战”的时代，这个“加拿大团队”可能会变得分裂，也更难以协调运作。
In an era where working as Team Canada has been key to the response to the trade war with the United States, that team may now become fractured and more difficult to manage.
民意调查显示，卡尼在加拿大全国（包括魁北克）的受欢迎程度依然很高；而魁北克正是他的政治根基所在——该省在加拿大78个选区中占据了44个席位。
Polls suggest Carney's popularity remains high across Canada, including in Quebec, which also happens to be his political power base — holding 44 of the 78 ridings.
但他能否在危机中治理国家，向魁北克证明其是联邦中受重视的一部分，同时又不给已不再沉寂的分离主义运动提供进一步口实，即将接受实时考验。
But his ability to manage the country through a crisis and prove to Quebec it is a valued part of the federation without giving further fodder to a no longer dormant separatist movement is about to be tested in real time.