里加，9月30日——拉脱维亚总理安德里斯·库尔贝格斯（Andris Kulbergs）领导的中派政党“联合名单”（United List）预计将在周六的议会选举中赢得最多席位，但不太可能获得绝对多数席位，因此需要组建联合政府。
RIGA, Sept 30 - Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist United List is expected to win the largest share of seats in Saturday's parliamentary election but is unlikely to secure an outright majority and will need to cobble together a coalition.
安全担忧和生活成本问题主导了拉脱维亚的选举议程。作为北约和欧盟成员国，拉脱维亚与俄罗斯接壤，且拥有大量俄语少数族裔人口。
Security concerns and cost of living issues have dominated the election agenda in Latvia, a NATO and European Union member state which borders Russia and is home to a significant Russian-speaking minority.
最新的SKDS/LSM民意调查显示，参加此次选举的14个政党中，有7个政党有望获得超过5%的选票，从而进入拥有100个席位的议会。
The latest SKDS/LSM opinion poll indicates that seven of the 14 parties contesting the election have a chance of winning more than 5% of votes cast and thus enter the 100-seat parliament.
库尔贝格斯目前领导着一个由“新团结党”（New Unity）、“国家联盟”（National Alliance）以及“绿党和农民联盟”（Greens and Farmers' Union）组成的广泛联合政府。此前，埃维卡·西利尼亚（Evika Silina）政府因处理乌克兰军用无人机进入拉脱维亚领空事件（俄乌战争的后果）不当而倒台，随后库尔贝格斯接任。
Kulbergs presides over a broad coalition with New Unity, National Alliance and the Greens and Farmers' Union, formed after Evika Silina's government collapsed over its handling of Ukrainian military drones entering Latvia's airspace, a consequence of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
然而，民调显示公众对政治感到失望，三分之一的受访者表示尚未决定或不打算投票，这使得最终结果充满不确定性。
But in a sign of public disenchantment with politics, one third of those polled said they were either undecided or did not intend to vote, making the final outcome uncertain.
由于不投票的选民比例较高，且投给未能达到5%门槛政党的选票将被作废，这意味着最终进入议会的政党所获得的席位比例将高于民调数据所显示的水平。
A high proportion of non-voters and of ballots cast for parties that fail to clear the 5% threshold means the parties that do enter parliament will ultimately receive a larger share of seats than the poll figures imply.
根据SKDS/LSM在9月4日至16日进行的民调，以下政党被认为最有希望在10月3日的选举中赢得席位：联合名单（14.4%）：这一由小型政党组成的中派团体在2022年选举中表现平平，并在2022年至2023年期间作为联合政府的初级合作伙伴。自后座议员库尔贝格斯于今年5月被任命为总理后，该党的民调支持率大幅飙升。
The following parties are seen as having the best chance of winning seats in the October 3 election, according to a September 4 to 16 poll by SKDS/LSM: UNITED LIST (14.4%) The centrist grouping of smaller parties was an also-ran in the 2022 election, and a junior coalition partner in 2022-2023. Its popularity soared in polls after backbencher Kulbergs was appointed prime minister in May this year.
民调显示，作为一名前赛车手，库尔贝格斯对俄罗斯持强硬立场，也是乌克兰的坚定支持者，他很有可能继续执政。
A former racing driver with a hawkish stance towards Russia and a strong supporter of Ukraine, Kulbergs has a good chance of staying in power, polls show.
主权力量与拉脱维亚青年联盟（9.4%）：该中左翼团体成立于2022年，由一批因拒绝谴责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而被原政党开除的政治人物组建。该党旨在争取拉脱维亚俄罗斯族少数群体的选票。
SOVEREIGN POWER & ALLIANCE OF YOUNG LATVIANS (9.4%) This centre-left group was established in 2022 by politicians who were expelled from another party for refusing to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It seeks to attract the ethnic Russian minority vote.
拉脱维亚第一党（9.2%）：中右翼政党“拉脱维亚第一党”的创始人和领导人是资深民粹主义大亨艾纳尔斯·斯列瑟斯（Ainars Slesers），他曾与俄罗斯寡头有商业往来。他通过招募俄罗斯族政治人物加入该党，并承诺对国内最大的少数群体采取更温和的态度，以争取俄语选民的支持。
LATVIA FIRST (9.2%) The founder and leader of the centre-right Latvia First, veteran populist tycoon Ainars Slesers, has had business ties with Russian oligarchs. He is courting Russian-speaking voters by recruiting ethnic Russian politicians to his party and promising a more conciliatory approach toward the largest minority.
进步党（6.2%）：该左倾政党成立于2017年，主要受到年轻且具有社会进步思想的选民支持。该党在2022年赢得议会席位后，曾参与执政联盟，直至今年5月。
PROGRESSIVES (6.2%) This left-leaning party is backed largely by young, socially progressive voters, founded in 2017. It was part of the government coalition until May after winning seats in 2022.
国家联盟（5.6%）：这是一个成立于2010年的民族主义政党，以保护家庭和传统价值观为竞选纲领。该党在2019年至2023年间曾参与执政联盟，并于今年加入了库尔贝格斯（Kulbergs）的执政联盟。该党主张对俄罗斯及拉脱维亚境内的俄罗斯少数群体采取强硬立场。
NATIONAL ALLIANCE (5.6%) A nationalist party founded in 2010, it campaigns on a promise to protect family and traditional values. It was part of the ruling coalitions from 2019 to 2023 and joined Kulbergs' coalition this year. It promotes a hardline approach towards Russia and Latvia's Russian minority.
绿党和农民联盟（4.8%）：这是一个由保守派团体组成的联盟，自2023年起一直是现任执政联盟的一部分。
GREENS AND FARMERS' UNION (4.8%) A coalition of conservative groups, it has been part of the current governing coalition since 2023.
新团结党（4.3%）：该中右翼政党在2022年大选中获胜，并一直担任总理职务，直至2026年5月西利尼亚（Silina）政府倒台。该党目前面临无法获得任何议会席位的风险。
NEW UNITY (4.3%) The centre-right party won the election in 2022 and held the prime minister's post until May 2026, when Silina's government collapsed. It is at risk of winning no seats.