卫星图像显示，美国数据中心的部署正在加速，但速度仍不足以满足部分对2028年极为乐观的预测。与此同时，先进芯片封装正成为限制新增AI算力上线速度的另一瓶颈。
Satellite imagery suggests US datacenter deployment is accelerating, but not fast enough to meet some of the more exuberant forecasts for 2028. Meanwhile, advanced chip packaging is emerging as another constraint on how quickly new AI capacity can come online.
投资银行杰富瑞（Jefferies）的一份报告称，美国各地的服务器农场建设正稳步推进，但许可审批、电力接入以及封装好的AI加速器供应，仍在拖延项目进度。该报告分享给《The Reg》，引用了分析公司SynMax的数据，后者利用每周卫星图像追踪土地平整、首批建筑物出现及数据中心工地的施工进度——这些数据能区分实质推进的项目与仅停留在宣布阶段的项目。
A report from investment bank Jefferies says server farm construction is proceeding apace across America, but permitting, access to power, and supplies of packaged AI accelerators continue to hold projects back. The report, shared with The Reg, cites analytics biz SynMax, which uses weekly satellite imagery to track land clearing, the appearance of the first structures, and construction progress at datacenter sites - data that distinguishes projects advancing on the ground from those that have merely been announced.
SynMax估计，美国部署规模将从2025年约11 GW的毛容量增至2026年的16-18 GW，高于其此前14-16 GW的预测。该机构认为，2027年的实际上限在20多吉瓦。然而，新项目的土地平整面积已趋于平稳，可见的施工活动远低于实现部分宣布的项目管线和芯片需求模型所暗示的2028年80 GW以上所需的步伐。
SynMax estimates that US deployments will rise from roughly 11 GW of gross capacity in 2025 to 16-18 GW in 2026, above its previous forecast of 14-16 GW. It puts the practical upper limit for 2027 in the low 20s of gigawatts. Yet the amount of land being cleared for new projects has plateaued, leaving visible activity well short of the pace required to deliver the more than 80 GW implied by some announced project pipelines and chip demand models for 2028.
这与杰富瑞之前的报告一致，后者发现，仅有一半计划于2026年投产的美国产能处于在建状态，而高达80%的2028年项目管线尚未动工。
That chimes with a previous Jefferies report, which found that only half the US capacity scheduled for 2026 was under construction and that work had yet to begin on as much as 80 percent of the 2028 pipeline.
杰富瑞指出，先进封装是另一个新兴瓶颈。制造足够的加速器芯片只是工作的一部分：在OEM厂商将其安装进服务器前，这些芯片还必须与高带宽存储器等组件进行封装。先进封装利用高密度互连将多颗芯片和存储组件整合在一起，这种工艺被广泛应用于许多尖端CPU和AI加速器中。
Jefferies identifies advanced packaging as another emerging constraint. Fabricating enough accelerator dies is only part of the job: they must also be packaged with components such as high-bandwidth memory before OEMs can install them in servers. Advanced packaging combines multiple dies and memory components using high-density connections, an approach used in many cutting-edge CPUs and AI accelerators.
即使在美国本土制造的芯片，也可能需要送往海外——通常是台湾——进行封装，这在半导体生产与运营数据中心容量之间形成了一个瓶颈。SynMax估计，现有的先进封装产能可支持功耗相当于约13吉瓦（GW）总功率的加速器。扣除CPU、内存、制冷及其他负载后，该机构将这一数字换算为约17.5吉瓦的数据中心总功率。预计2027年投产的两个额外封装项目可再支持6吉瓦，除非产能扩张快于预测，否则实际上限将维持在20多吉瓦的低位。
Even chips manufactured on US soil may need to be sent overseas, typically to Taiwan, for packaging, creating a choke point between semiconductor production and operational datacenter capacity. SynMax estimates that existing advanced packaging capacity could support accelerators drawing the equivalent of roughly 13 GW of gross power. After accounting for CPUs, memory, cooling, and other loads, it converts that figure into approximately 17.5 GW of total datacenter power. Two additional packaging projects expected to come online in 2027 could support another 6 GW, taking the practical ceiling into the low 20s unless capacity expands faster than forecast.
这并非首次警告芯片供应可能限制数据中心扩张。去年，London Economics International的一份报告指出，若2025至2030年间美国所有预测的“比特仓”项目全部落地，将需要全球AI芯片供应增量的90%流向美国市场。报告还指出，开发集中在得克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州等州，使得全国部署数据极易受任一市场延期的影响。
This is not the first warning that chip supplies could limit datacenter expansion. Last year, a report from London Economics International concluded that if all the bit barn projects forecast for the US between 2025 and 2030 went ahead, it would require 90 percent of all the growth in the global AI chip supply to be funneled into the American market. The report also notes that development is concentrated in states including Texas and Virginia, making national deployment figures particularly vulnerable to delays in either market.
在得州，获取不间断电网服务可能缓慢，而接受偶尔的限电可能让数据中心更快接入电网。这可能要求运营商在电网运营商指示时降低功耗。前开发商、得克萨斯电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）大负荷工作组参与者Jesse Gossett告诉Jefferies，如果限电具有足够可预测性，可建模、投保、体现在服务级别协议中，或由备用资源覆盖，则99%的正常运行时间在财务上可能是可行的。
In Texas, obtaining uninterrupted grid service can be slow, while accepting occasional curtailment may get a datacenter connected sooner. This could require an operator to reduce power draw when instructed by the grid operator. Jesse Gossett, a former developer and participant in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) large-load working group, told Jefferies that 99 percent uptime could be financially viable if curtailment were predictable enough to model, insure, reflect in service-level agreements, or cover with backup resources.
Gossett认为，真正破坏经济性的是得州电网运营商在“安全约束经济调度”系统下，对“临时可控负荷资源”实施的不可预测的五分钟限电。
What can break the economics, Gossett argued, is unpredictable five-minute curtailment under the Texas grid operator's Security-Constrained Economic Dispatch system for Provisional Controllable Load Resources.
数据中心可以配合持续一两个小时的计划性削减，但无法配合提前五分钟发出的突发指令。®
Datacenters can accommodate planned curtailment lasting an hour or two, but not an unexpected instruction issued on five minutes' notice. ®