作者：Paul J. Davies长期维持的高利率正迫使收购公司面对现实。自2023年以来，这些公司在出售新冠疫情前超低利率时代所收购的企业时举步维艰，它们曾试图通过巧妙的金融工程来安抚投资者，以维持部分资金的周转。然而，在经历了数次对利率回落的错误预期后，传统的私募股权杠杆交易行业正进入对其前景感到悲哀的最后阶段：接受现实。
By Paul J. Davies Higher-for-longer interest rates are forcing buyout firms to face facts. Struggling since 2023 to sell companies purchased in the long decade of ultra-cheap debt before the Covid pandemic, they’ve tried to placate investors with clever financial engineering to help keep some money turning over. But after several false dawns for a return to low rates, the classic private-equity leveraged deals industry is moving into the final stage of grief over its prospects: acceptance.
该行业的管理人员开始公开承认，许多现有基金的收益将无法达到预期，尤其是那些在2017年至2021年间完成大部分交易的基金。投资周期正远远超出过去三到五年的常态。据数据公司Pitchbook统计，仅在美国，就有8600亿美元（占收购资产总额的40%以上）被困在持有超过七年的公司中。
Executives in the sector are beginning to admit openly that returns will fall short of what was promised for a lot of existing funds, and especially those that did most of their deals between 2017 and 2021. Investment lifespans are extending well beyond the three-to-five years that used to be the norm. In the US alone, $860 billion, or more than 40% of total buyout assets, is tied up incompanies that have been owned for more than seven years, according to Pitchbook, a data company.
行业领导者必须采取行动。由于杠杆交易陷入停滞，过去几年的新基金募集工作受到了影响。这对该行业的创收者来说也是一种痛苦。资本回报率低意味着他们无法获得预期的丰厚奖金，这促使一些经理人离开该行业，去其他地方寻找更具成就感和回报的工作。
Industry leaders need to do something. With leveraged deals gummed up, new fundraising has been hurt for the past couple of years. It’s a pain for the industry’s rainmakers, too. Poor capital returns mean they’re not getting paid the fat bonuses they expected, driving some managers to quit the sector in search of more fulfilling and enriching work elsewhere.
大型收购公司已经在向新的业务领域扩张，我预计会有更多的公司开始淡化那些曾令它们声名鹊起的基金的重要性。阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo Global Management Inc.）是首批从私募股权根基中实现重大转型并脱颖而出的公司之一，它转而专注于为其人寿保险业务创造风险较低的私人贷款。首席执行官马克·罗文（Marc Rowan）现在对收购基金仅占该集团总资产8%这一事实感到自豪。
Major buyout firms have already been expanding into new business areas, and I expect more to start playing down the importance of the funds that made their names. Apollo Global Management Inc. was one of the first to make a big breakaway from its private-equity roots, focusing instead on less risky private loans created for its life insurance business. Chief Executive Officer Marc Rowan now revels in the fact that buyout funds make up just 8% of the group’s total assets.
KKR集团（KKR & Co Inc.）和黑石集团（Blackstone Inc.）等长期竞争对手也一直在收购或与大型人寿和年金业务合作，以走上同样的道路。
Longtime rivals such as KKR & Co Inc. and Blackstone Inc. also have been buying or working with big life and annuity businesses to follow the same path.
新冠疫情前异常有利的条件使许多公司得以大幅增长，并涌现出大量新企业。事实证明，许多公司对零利率的依赖远胜于其他任何因素。阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo）资产管理联席主管斯科特·克莱恩曼（Scott Kleinman）认为，许多公司将会倒闭，而私募股权行业剩下的部分可能会演变成一种长期管理所有者模式，专注于那些更稳定、现金流良好且债务负担较轻的公司。克莱恩曼本月在巴克莱银行举办的一次会议上表示，投资可以以这种方式持有数十年。
The unusually favorable conditions before Covid allowed a lot of firms to grow dramatically and many new ones to emerge. Plenty turned out to be more dependent on 0% rates than on anything else. In the view of Scott Kleinman, Apollo’s co-head of asset management, many firms will fall away, and what’s left of private equity could evolve into an industry of long-term manager-owners of companies that are more stable, produce good cash flows and are much less burdened by debt. Investments could be held this way for decades, Kleinman said this month at a conference run by Barclays Plc.
但从某种意义上说，这只是对现状的认可。许多投资在收购基金中的持有时间已超过10年。据彭博社报道，人力资源公司UKG（前身为Kronos Inc.）已被弗里曼·斯皮尔曼（Hellman & Friedman）持有近二十年，且目前没有出售计划。
But in a sense, this is just recognizing how the world already is. Many investments have been in buyout funds more than 10 years. The human resources company UKG (formerly Kronos Inc.) has been owned by Hellman & Friedman for nearly two decades, and there are no plans to sell it soon, according to Bloomberg News.
另一种观点认为，许多科技及其他行业的初创公司将无限期保持私有状态，而不是通过首次公开募股（IPO）寻求上市，而上市曾是几乎每位企业家的目标。太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）今年完成了一笔破纪录的融资，但像估值1590亿美元的在线支付公司Stripe Inc.这样的企业，目前没有任何上市迹象。（Stripe联合创始人约翰·科里森在接受CNBC采访时称，IPO是“为了解决问题而寻找方案”。）
Another view is that many former startups in technology and other sectors will just stay private indefinitely rather than pursuing a place in stock markets through an initial public offering, which used to be almost every entrepreneur’s aim. SpaceX Inc. completed a record-breaking listing this year, but companies like Stripe Inc., an online payments outfit worth $159 billion, show no signs of interest in going public. (Stripe co-founder John Collison, in a CNBC interview, called an IPO “a solution in search of a problem.”)
这助长了金融圈内兜售的一种观点，即私募股权不仅关乎收购，也关乎恰好处于私有状态的股权。这是一个巧妙的措辞，或许有助于改变人们的看法。然而，收取高额常规费用的基金经理们仍需向投资者证明，这种模式对他们而言确实有利可图。
This feeds into an idea being peddled in financial circles that private equity isn’t just about buyouts, but also about equity that simply happens to be private. It’s a neat little turn of phrase that may help alter perceptions. However, managers extracting their usual high fees will still need to convince investors that there is something in this for them.
黑石集团最近在这一论点上尝试未果，试图将老旧收购基金中尴尬的剩余资产重新包装，装入一个名为“担保基金债务”（collateralized fund obligation）的崭新外壳中。其目的是利用主要通过发行债券筹集的资金，从现有投资者手中买入这些基金的股份，并向债券持有人支付稳定的收益。这类似于通过证券化将抵押贷款转化为所谓的安全债务。对黑石而言不幸的是，尽管经过数月的努力，它仍未能激起足够的兴趣，并于上周放弃了这笔交易。
Blackstone had an unsuccessful run at this argument recently with an attempt to repackage the awkward remnants of geriatric buyout funds into a shiny new box known as a collateralized fund obligation. The aim was to buy stakes in the funds from existing investors using money mainly from issuing bonds that would pay a steady income to the holders. It’s similar to how mortgages are turned into supposedly safe debt through securitization. Unfortunately for Blackstone, despite months of work it couldn’t drum up enough interest and abandoned the deal last week.
即便在基金经理出售公司的情况下，近年来他们也往往是将公司卖给彼此，这也是企业保持私有化状态的另一种方式。根据咨询公司贝恩公司（Bain & Co）的数据，近三分之一的退出交易属于所谓的“保荐人对保荐人”（sponsor-to-sponsor）交易。
Even where managers have been selling companies, in recent years they’ve often been selling them to each other, which is another way businesses stay private. Almost one-third of exits are so-called sponsor-to-sponsor deals, according to data from Bain & Co, a consultancy.
如果没有解决方案，收购行业将看到越来越多的“僵尸基金”，即基金经理既无法卖出剩余资产，也无法向投资者返还现金，但却继续收取管理费以维持基金的运营。在今年夏天的一项调查中，超过半数的私募股权投资者预计，未来两年内这种“金融行尸走肉”现象将会激增。
Without solutions, the buyout business is going to see ever growing numbers of zombie funds, where a manager can’t sell the last of the assets or return investors’ cash but continues collecting management fees that help keep the fund’s lights on. More than half of private-equity investors in a survey this summer expected a proliferation of the walking financial dead over the next two years.
人们很容易认为整个收购行业正面临漫长而缓慢的衰亡。但反面观点认为，今年的募资活动已经回暖，且表现强于过去两年。根据标普全球（S&P Global）旗下With Intelligence的数据，2026年上半年承诺投入收购基金的资金达2160亿美元，已超过2025年和2024年全年总额的一半。
It is tempting to say here that the whole buyout industry faces a long, slow death. The counter argument is that fundraising has picked up this year and is looking stronger than the past two. The $216 billion committed to buyout funds in the first six months of 2026 is more than half the full-year totals in each of 2025 and 2024, according to S&P Global’s With Intelligence.
然而，这些数字背后其实也隐藏着一些变化：今年募集的资金中，有超过一半流入了规模最大的20家私募基金；同时，越来越多的资金被投向那些可以在多个地区寻找投资机会的基金（而不仅仅是局限于北美市场）。与近年来类似，大量新资金也流向了那些专门通过二级市场收购现有私募股权份额的机构。
However, there are changes behind these numbers, too. The 20 biggest funds captured more than half the money raised this year, and much more cash is going to funds that are allowed to hunt for deals in several regions rather than sticking to just North America, say. And as in other recent years, a good share of new capital is going to firms that specialize in buying old private-equity stakes through secondaries funds.
在过去的几十年里，随着利率持续下降并最终降至历史最低水平，收购业务蓬勃发展。但在当前这个充满贸易冲击、政府债务高企以及通货膨胀持续存在的环境下，借贷成本正在上升，并且很可能还会保持高位。私募股权行业不会彻底消失，但那些能够存活下来的企业将会发生显著的变化。
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