尽管面临宏观经济压力和消费者持谨慎态度，但由于消费依然强劲，预计今年假日季的零售额将实现同比增长。
Despite macroeconomic pressures and a cautious consumer, retail sales this holiday season are expected to grow year-over-year as spending remains strong.
根据贝恩公司（Bain & Company）的年度预测，假日零售额有望首次突破1万亿美元大关，实现4.5%的增长。预计其中70%的增长将主要来自实体店销售，尽管电子商务也在持续增长。假日消费得到了退税增加的支持，今年退税额增加了430亿美元，同比增长17%，这为消费者的钱包增加了更多现金。尽管如此，报告指出，美国银行（Bank of America）估计其中一半的收益已被高昂的汽油价格抵消，这极大地压缩了消费者的预算。
According to Bain & Company's annual forecast, holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion for the first time, marking a 4.5% growth. That growth is largely projected to be from in-store sales at 70%, though e-commerce is continuing to gain The holiday spending is supported by higher tax refunds, which are up $43 billion this year, or 17% year over year, adding more cash to consumers' wallets. Even still, the report noted that Bank of America estimates half of that benefit has already gone to higher gas prices, which have significantly squeezed budgets.
贝恩公司还指出，消费总额的增长主要是由通货膨胀推动的，这占据了增长的大部分，使得实际的商品销量增长远没有表面看起来那么乐观。受通胀影响最严重、销量出现下滑的类别包括食品和饮料、家具以及健康和个人护理产品。
Bain also noted that the headline spending increase is underscored by rising inflation, which accounts for most of the growth, making actual unit growth thinner than it appears. Categories that are most affected by inflation with unit decline include food and beverage, furniture, and health and personal care.
在发布这份消费预测之际，世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）周二报告称，9月份消费者信心指数降至2014年以来的最低水平。受访者表示，他们对通货膨胀和就业前景感到担忧。
The spending forecast comes as the Conference Board reported Tuesday that consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014 in September. Respondents said they were worried about inflation and the jobs outlook.
尽管如此，德勤（Deloitte）的预测与贝恩公司相似，预计今年假日零售额将达到1.7万亿美元。德勤指出，消费者在消费方式上将更具创造性，包括积极寻找折扣和降价商品。
Still, Deloitte forecast a similar projection to Bain, saying it expects holiday retail sales to reach $1.7 trillion this year. It noted that consumers are going to get more creative about how they're spending their money, including looking for discounts and markdowns.
随着人们力图让每一分钱发挥更大效用，我们持续看到各个收入层级的消费者都表现出追求性价比的行为，包括在不同品牌和零售商之间转换，并利用促销活动来控制支出。德勤副董事长、美国零售和消费品业务负责人娜塔莉·马丁尼表示：“预计这些行为将影响消费者本季的假日购物方式。”Adobe的假日购物报告也印证了这一趋势。
"As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending," said Natalie Martini, vice chair of Deloitte and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. "These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season."
该报告预计，今年以价值优先的购物将成为推动增长和提升市场份额的重要力量。该公司还表示，随着消费者在花钱方面变得更有计划，预计“先买后付”消费额将创下213亿美元的历史新高。
That's a trend echoed by Adobe's holiday shopping report, which expects value-first shopping to power growth and share this year. The company also said it expects buy now, pay later spending to hit a record of $21.3 billion as consumers become more intentional with how they're spending their money.
另一个消费习惯变化的迹象是，据AlixPartners的假日购物预测报告，消费者结账时的购物篮更小了，但购物次数却更频繁，尤其是在杂货购物方面。他们还从高端品牌转向自有品牌，并购买数量更少、品质更高的商品。
In another sign of changing habits, consumers have smaller baskets when they're checking out, but they're making more frequent trips, especially when it comes to grocery shopping, according to AlixPartners' holiday projections report. They're also shifting from premium to private-label brands and buying fewer, higher-quality items.
AlixPartners时尚零售业务负责人索尼娅·拉平斯基表示：“消费者并非在所有品类上平均削减开支。他们在犒赏自己方面变得更加挑剔，并寻找在预算范围内保持品质的方法。”在这个假日购物季，人工智能也将成为商品发现和购买的一大主题。据Adobe称，8月由人工智能驱动的零售网站流量同比增长127%，预计整个假日购物季将同比增长130%，感恩节当天则将同比增长141%。
"Consumers are not cutting back evenly across every category," Sonia Lapinsky, leader of fashion retail at AlixPartners, said. "They are becoming more selective about self-gifting and looking for ways to preserve quality while staying within their budgets." Artificial intelligence will also be a theme for discovery and purchasing this holiday season. According to Adobe, AI-driven traffic to retail sites grew 127% year-over-year in August and is expected to grow 130% year-over-year overall through the holiday season and 141% year-over-year on Thanksgiving.
普华永道的假日购物报告显示，29%的消费者计划今年在假日购物的某个环节使用人工智能，而去年这一比例为22%。
According to PwC's holiday report, 29% of consumers plan to use AI somewhere in their holiday shopping this year. That's up from 22% last year.
不过，普华永道表示，消费者使用人工智能购物的方式多种多样：75%的购物者使用人工智能研究产品，55%使用人工智能比较价格。
But the way consumers are using AI for shopping is diverse: 75% of shoppers use it to research products, and 55% use it to compare prices, PwC said.
尽管如此，该公司指出，虽然人们通过新科技进行探索的意愿很强，但大多数人仍未通过人工智能平台直接购买产品。
Still, the company noted that while the appetite to explore through new technology is strong, most people are still not buying products directly through AI platforms.
“目前，人工智能更像是商场里一位见多识广的朋友，而不是现金，”普华永道的报告这样写道。
"For now, AI is the modern equivalent of a knowledgeable friend at the mall, not the cash," the PwC report read.