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美联储青睐的通胀指标8月降至3.4%Fed’s preferred measure of inflation dips to 3.4 percent in August

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美联储首选的通胀指标在8月回落,多位央行官员表示,未来可能即将加息。

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation dipped in August, as multiple central bank officials have said future interest rate hikes could be on the horizon.

根据经济分析局周三发布的数据,个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数较7月上升0.3%,同比上涨3.4%。

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3 percent from July to last month, and was up 3.4 percent year-over-year, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PCE数据显示,剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后,8月同比通胀率为3%。

Excluding more volatile food and energy prices, annual inflation in August was at 3 percent, the PCE data shows.

最新通胀数据低于克利夫兰联储的预测。该行预计,8月整体价格同比涨幅为3.7%,剔除食品和能源价格的核心通胀率也将达到3.4%。

The latest inflation measurements were below projections from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, which estimated annual prices would be up by 3.7 percent year-over-year in August.

这一常用通胀指标显示,7月价格同比上涨3.7%,与6月持平。通胀已连续五年多高于美联储2%的目标,并在今年伊朗战争爆发后上升。消费者价格指数显示,8月同比通胀率同样为3.4%。

面对持续居高不下的通胀,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)本月早些时候将利率上调了25个基点,利率区间升至3.75%至4%。

The Cleveland Fed also projected core inflation, which excludes food and energy, at 3.4 percent. The popular inflation metric measured prices as being up 3.7 percent in July, the same as June. Inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2 percent target for five-plus years, rising this year amid the Iran war. Annual inflation as measured by the consumer price index was also 3.4 percent in August.

美联储主席凯文·沃什在一致同意加息后表示:“事实很清楚,通胀水平过高,而且已经持续了太长时间。今年夏天的通胀数据并未向我表明,其underlying trends have meaningfully improved。” Wait untranslated accidentally. Need all Chinese. "整体趋势已有实质性改善。" Since that decision... 自该决定以来,多位FOMC官员预测未来还会加息,该委员会定于10月27日至28日再次召开会议。

In response to persistent inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates by a quarter point earlier this month — to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent. “The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long,” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said after the unanimous vote to raise rates. “This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”Since that decision, multiple FOMC officials have forecasted future rate hikes, with the panel set to meet again Oct. 27-28.

费城联储主席安娜·保尔森上周四表示,如果经济状况持续下去 warrants modest further tightening. Translate “就有必要进一步适度收紧政策”。

Anna Paulson, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said last Thursday economic conditions warrant “modest further tightening” if they continue.

美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔上周也表示,可能仍需“进一步调整政策”才能压低通胀,并在周二重申了这一观点。

Fed Governor Michael Barr also said last week that “further policy adjustments” are likely needed to bring inflation down, remarks he reiterated on Tuesday.

“实现通胀目标的风险有所上升,而劳动力市场的风险已经消退,因此我们需要重新校准政策,使我们处于更有利的位置,以更均衡地平衡双重使命两个方面所面临的风险。”巴雷在底特律经济俱乐部表示。

“Risks to achieving our inflation target have increased, while risks to the labor market have receded, so we need to recalibrate policy to get us in a better position that more evenly balances risks to both components of our dual mandate,” Barr said at the Detroit Economic Club.

根据芝商所(CME)的美联储观察工具(FedWatch),交易员预计联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在10月下旬加息25个基点的概率为47.1%。

Traders are pricing in a 47.1 percent chance of the FOMC hiking rates by a quarter point in late October, according to the CME FedWatch tool.