如今，在这个关键政治季节的秋季，共和党在中期选举中失去国会控制权似乎已成定局，因为过去五次中期选举中，执政党均在国会中失去了席位。
Now in the autumn of this critical political season, a midterm loss of Congress for Republicans feels inevitable, as the last five midterm elections saw the party in power lose seats in Congress.
这一趋势的历史甚至早于21世纪初。自1946年以来，在20次中期选举中，总统所属政党有18次（90%的情况）在美国众议院中失去了席位。
This trend goes back even longer than the 2000s. Since 1946, the president’s party has lost seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 18 of 20 midterm elections (90% of the time).
唐纳德·特朗普总统在其第一任期内也遭遇了这一趋势。2018年，共和党在众议院失去了41个席位，尽管他们在美国参议院中增加了两个席位。中期选举历史极大地有利于民主党。但他们正在犯一个大错尽管存在这种模式，但失利并非不可避免。想想罗纳德·里根在1980年选举前夜的演讲《美国的愿景》。这场演讲是在国家面临巨大危险和不满情绪的时刻发表的，为了使其积极的愿景更加清晰，里根援引了从宇航员到约翰·韦恩的美国英雄：“去年，我失去了一位朋友，他不仅是好莱坞梦想产业的象征；对数百万人而言，他是我们国家本身的象征。当他去世时，头条新闻似乎传达了对美国的所有怀疑，以及对一个看似逝去的过去的所有怀旧。”
President Donald Trump ran into this trend in his first term when, in 2018, Republicans lost 41 seats in the House — though they did gain two seats in the U.S. Senate. MIDTERM HISTORY MASSIVELY FAVORS DEMOCRATS. BUT THEY ARE MAKING A BIG MISTAKE Despite the pattern, a loss is not inevitable. Consider Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election eve address "A Vision for America." This speech came at a time of great national peril and discontentment, so, to give clarity to his positive vision, Reagan drew on American heroes from astronauts to John Wayne: "Last year I lost a friend who was more than a symbol of the Hollywood dream industry; to millions he was a symbol of our country itself. And when he died, the headlines seemed to convey all the doubt about America, all the nostalgia for a seemingly lost past."
共和党需要里根式的愿景来赢得关于美国未来的斗争 “最后的美国英雄”，一个头条写道；“美国先生去世”，另一个头条写道。
REPUBLICANS NEED A REAGAN-STYLE VISION TO WIN THE BATTLE OVER AMERICA'S FUTURE "The Last American Hero," said one headline, "Mr. America dies," said another.
嗯，我很了解约翰·韦恩，没有人会比他更愤怒于被称为“最后的美国英雄”。
Well, I knew John Wayne well, and no one would have been angrier at being called the "last American hero."
就在他去世前不久，他用他一贯直率的方式说：“只要给美国人民一个正当的事业，就没有他们克服不了的困难。” 共和党在给予美国人民一个正当的事业方面做得很差。关键在于，正确的事业正是导致那两次例外的原因。
Just before his death, he said in his own blunt way, "Just give the American people a good cause, and there’s nothing they can’t lick." Republicans have done a poor job giving the American people a good cause. The thing is, the right cause is what led to the two exceptions.
共和党面临中期选举的严峻逆风。六种力量可能帮助他们打破历史规律。
REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.
执政党在中期选举中失去席位的最后一个例外发生在2002年，当时乔治·W·布什领导下的共和党赢得了八个席位。这发生在“9·11”恐怖袭击后总统支持率高涨的时期。
The last exception to the party in power losing seats in a midterm was in 2002, when Republicans under George W. Bush gained eight seats. This occurred during a time of high presidential approval ratings after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
另一个现代例外发生在1998年，当时在比尔·克林顿的领导下，民主党赢得了五个席位。那是一个经济强劲、总统支持率高涨的时期（具有讽刺意味的是，这在一定程度上是因为时任众议院议长纽特·金里奇领导下的共和党实现了预算平衡，并强迫当时处于弱势的克林顿同意进行福利改革）。
The other modern exception was in 1998, when Democrats gained five seats under Bill Clinton during a time of high presidential approval thanks to a strong economy (ironically, in part because Republicans, under then Speaker Newt Gingrich, balanced the budget and strong-armed a temporarily weakened Clinton into agreeing to welfare reform).
因此，这两个例外都出现在国家高度团结的时期。但更准确地说，这些例外出现在选民出于强烈的民族主义原因而支持执政党的时候。
So, both of these exceptions came at times of strong national unity. But, to be more precise, the exceptions came when voters rallied to the party in power for largely nationalistic reasons.
如果能清晰地表达出来，这一点本可以也应该让共和党受益，因为民主党已经向左转得太远，以至于美国民主社会主义者协会（DSA）的官方纲领现在看起来就像是查克·舒默参议员、亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯众议员和参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德所在政党的下一个纲领。
This, if articulated cleanly, could and should benefit Republicans, as the Democrats have turned so far left that the Democratic Socialists of America’s (DSA) official platform now feels like it could be the next platform for the party of Sen. Chuck Schumer, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
我们的总结陈词：中期选举是对“谁在掌控你的生活”的一次公投。但是，共和党人不仅要向选民展示这种鲜明的对比，还要像美国漫画英雄超人曾经说过的那样，激发一种对真理、正义和美国方式的全国性热情，他们该如何做到这一点呢？
OUR CLOSING ARGUMENT: THE MIDTERMS ARE A REFERENDUM ON WHO RUNS YOUR LIFE But how can Republicans not only show this stark contrast to voters, but also unleash a national fervor for truth, justice, and the American way, as the American comic book hero Superman once put it?
正如里根所做的那样，实现这一目标的最好方法就是颂扬我们的英雄。
As Reagan did, the best way to do this is to herald our heroes.
美国拥有众多创新者、企业家、资本家，以及那些身着蓝色或绿色制服、为国家和民众服务的英雄；我们还有那些武装自己、保护他人安全的公民；我们还有像哈米特·迪隆（Harmeet Dhillon）这样的民权捍卫者；我们还有像埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）这样的企业家，他们致力于推动人类重返月球、进而探索火星……这些真正的英雄，可以与当今所谓的“左派英雄”（那些深层次政府官僚、反以色列的活动家、支持开放边境政策的政治家、主张允许男性参与女性体育项目的倡导者，以及那些试图剥夺公民权利的势力）形成鲜明对比，从而让人们看清谁才是真正为美国自由而奋斗的人。
America has innovators, entrepreneurs, capitalists, and heroes in blue and green; we have armed citizens who defend themselves and others; we have civil-rights champions like Harmeet Dhillon; we have explorers who would go back to the moon and then to Mars thanks to entrepreneurs like Elon Musk ... these and other heroes can also be juxtaposed beside the so-called heroes of today’s left (the deep-state bureaucrats, anti-Israel activists, open-border politicians, proponents of allowing men into women’s sports, gun grabbers, and more) to show who is actually for American freedom.
选民们究竟希望选择佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）所推行的低税收、支持自由的政策，还是加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）所推行的高税收、充满特殊利益集团腐败的政策呢？选民们是希望那些身着蓝色制服的英雄们继续维持美国半个多世纪以来最低的犯罪率，还是希望那些受到乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）支持的检察官再次为罪犯开脱罪责、让他们继续危害社会？
Do voters want the low taxes, pro-freedom agenda of, say, Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis, or do they want the high taxes and increasing special-interest squalor of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s California? Do voters want our heroes in blue to maintain what is now the lowest violent-crime rate America has seen in more than half a century, or do they want George Soros’ backed district attorneys to give criminals get-out-of-jail-free cards again and again so they can prey on us?
选民们是希望卫生与公共服务部部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪（Robert F. Kennedy Jr.）发起的“让美国再次健康”（Make America Healthy Again, MAHA）运动来保障我们的食品安全，还是希望那些大型食品企业继续主导我们的健康标准制定？
Do voters want Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement to let us know what is in our food and more, or do they want big food to go back to writing our guidelines?
选民们是希望被所谓的“专家”阶层所领导（就像新冠疫情期间安东尼·福奇（Anthony Fauci）所做的那样），还是希望自己能够拥有自由选择的权利、自主决定自己的命运？
Do voters want to be led by an elite class of "experts," such as we were during Covid by Anthony Fauci, or do they want the individual autonomy to freely decide for themselves?
每一项重要的政策或理念都需要用生动、富有人情味的方式来表达。里根就深刻理解了这一点。在《美国的愿景》演讲的结尾部分，他提到了那些在登月探索过程中牺牲的美国宇航员，并说道：“他们并非那些刻意追求成为英雄的人；从某种意义上说，他们只是普通的美国人。他们对时代与环境的自发反应，让我们得以一窥这个国家的精神本质以及其人民所拥有的持久活力。”
Each issue needs to be shown in vivid and very human terms. Reagan, again, understood this. Near the end of his "Vision for America" speech, Reagan spoke of American astronauts who had lost their lives in the quest to reach the moon before saying, "These were not the deeds of men who set out to be heroes. In many ways, they were ordinary Americans whose spontaneous response to time and circumstance gave us a glimpse into the soul of this country and the enduring vigor of her people."
如今，美国民众并没有太多听到这种积极、充满希望的对未来的展望；然而，绝大多数美国人其实都非常渴望听到这样的声音。
Americans right now are not getting enough of this kind of pro-American vision of our future, but the vast majority of them want it so badly.