彭博社报道——全球最大对冲基金之一桥水基金预测，如果人工智能不受监管，且社会未能为技术剧变做好准备，它可能会取代美国近五分之一的劳动力。
By Shawna Kwan Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, projects AI could dislocate almost one-fifth of the US labor market if it’s not regulated and if society fails to prepare for the technological upheaval.
桥水基金首席执行官尼尔·巴尔·迪亚在最新一期的节目中表示：“因为我们对人工智能的积极影响如此乐观，我们也认识到，任何能够如此积极地改变世界的事物，也可能产生严重的负面影响。”他补充道：“我们估计人工智能可以取代18%的美国劳动力。所以想想可能发生的社会崩溃的严重程度。”
“Because we’re so bullish on the positive implications of AI, we also recognize that anything that could change the world that much for the positive could also have severely negative implications,” Bridgewater Chief Executive Officer Nir Bar Dea said on a new episode of“Our estimate is that AI can dislocate 18% of American labor,” he added. “So think about the magnitude of the societal breakdown that could happen.”
这位首席执行官是最新一位对快速发展的技术潜在危险发出警告的高管，他的同事、管理首席投资官格雷格·詹森也是其中之一，詹森是OpenAI和Anthropic PBC最早的支持者之一。詹森将当前对人工智能的态度比作疫情初期，当时许多人没有意识到新冠的风险。与此同时，亿万富翁保罗·都铎·琼斯写道，迫在眉睫的人工智能威胁似乎“就像在等待六级飓风”。
The CEO is the latest executive to flag the potential perils of the fast-growing technology, including his colleague, Managing Chief Investment Officer Greg Jensen, one of the earliest backers of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC. Jensen likened the current attitude around AI to the earliest days of the pandemic, when many didn’t appreciate the risks of Covid-19. Meanwhile, billionaire Paul Tudor Jones wrote that the looming AI threat seems “like waiting for a Category 6 hurricane.”
桥水基金管理着约1000亿美元资产，仍然致力于将人工智能融入公司，该公司从事全球宏观经济投资。巴尔·迪亚在采访中表示，技术对这类投资至关重要。
Bridgewater, which manages about $100 billion, remains committed to integrating AI into the firm, which makes global macroeconomic investments. Technology is crucial for that kind of investing, Bar Dea said in the interview.
他说：“如果你想构建并理解世界如何运作，你就需要将人类与技术结合起来。”
“If you’re going to build and understand how the world works, you want to combine humans and technology,” he said.
2024年，桥水基金为一只人工智能驱动的基金筹集了近20亿美元，由技术生成洞察，由人类管理风险。据巴尔·迪亚称，自那以后，该人工智能基金跑赢了市场，同时提出了与桥水基金人类交易员不同的想法。
In 2024, Bridgewater raised almost $2 billion for an AI-driven fund, with the technology generating insight and humans managing risk. Since then, the AI fund has beaten the market while coming up with different ideas than Bridgewater’s human traders do, according to Bar Dea.
他说：“想到未来会怎样，这简直让人难以置信。”不过他也补充说，非常规的人工智能模型不会取得同样的结果。他补充道：“你必须拥有独特的数据、独特的训练师”才能获得优势。
“That just blows your mind thinking what the future holds,” he said, though he added that out-of-the-box AI models won’t get the same results. “You have to have unique data, unique trainers” to have an edge, he added.
巴尔·迪亚（Bar Dea）是一位已退役的以色列国防军军官。他正在逐步接管这家由雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）创立的、已有51年历史的公司。 Bridgewater 曾经是全球最大的对冲基金，但在巴尔·迪亚的领导下，该基金的资产规模一直在被有意缩减；他于2023年成为该公司的唯一首席执行官。目前，Bridgewater 的两只主要基金都不再向新投资者开放。
Bar Dea, a retired major in the Israel Defense Forces, has been steadily transforming the 51-year-old firm founded by Ray Dalio. Once the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater has been intentionally paring assets under Bar Dea, who became sole CEO in 2023. Both of Bridgewater’s main funds are closed to new investors.
巴尔·迪亚补充道：“在过去几年里，我们已经为投资者返还了数十亿美元的收益，今年我们也会继续这样做。”
“We’ve been returning billions of dollars over the last couple of years,” Bar Dea added, “and we’re going to do that again this year.”