民调显示，阿尔伯塔省支持独立的阵营落后幅度接近三比一，因此一些活动人士在公投竞选的最后阶段开始尝试更为温和的说辞。
With polls of Albertans showing the pro-independence side trailing by a nearly three-to-one margin some activists have been trying a gentler pitch in the referendum campaign’s home stretch.
他们说，这并非直接就是否独立的投票。从字面意义上讲，这是事实；10月19日的问题为民众提供了两个选项：留在加拿大，或启动程序以就阿尔伯塔省是否应脱离加拿大举行未来的具有约束力的公投。
It’s not a direct vote on independence, they say. This is literally true; the Oct. 19 question gives people the options to stay in Canada or commence the process to hold a future binding referendum on whether Alberta should leave Canada.
独立支持者更进一步，声称这个问题实际上与独立目标无关。但基于上述原因，这在字面上是不正确的。
Independence advocates go further than this and suggest that the question isn’t really about the goal of independence at all. Which is literally not true, for the above-stated reason.
然而，“让阿尔伯塔决定”组织共同负责人基思·威尔逊（Keith Wilson）确实试图将未来的脱离投票描绘为省长丹妮尔·史密斯（Danielle Smith）与总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）之间一系列谈判回合中的一环。
But darned if Let Alberta Decide co-leader Keith Wilson doesn’t try to frame a future secession vote as just one in a series of volleys in negotiations between Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney.
威尔逊上周末在社交媒体上写道：“即使你希望阿尔伯塔留在加拿大，也请投票选择选项2。”
“Even if you want Alberta to stay in Canada, vote Option 2,” Wilson wrote over the weekend on social media.
“这不是支持分离的投票。这是表明与渥太华的现状不可接受——这赋予史密斯省长真正的谈判筹码，而不是向卡尼传递一切正常的信号。”这位律师将此作为其核心口号，试图从日益减少的未决定选民中争取选票，或者或许能说服一些“留派”阿尔伯塔人改变立场。
“It’s not a vote for separation. It’s a vote that the status quo with Ottawa is unacceptable — and it gives Premier Smith real leverage instead of sending Carney a message that everything is fine.”This has become the lawyer’s key refrain, as he tries to pry loose any votes from the dwindling ranks of undecided voters, or perhaps flip some Albertans in the “stay” camp.
“所以，即使你认为阿尔伯塔不应分离，无论你认为那意味着什么，即使你像我们所有人一样，对加拿大怀有强烈的情感和爱国依恋，你也应该投票选择选项2，因为你需要赋予省长谈判筹码，”他在最近的一次论坛上说道，此后他一直在网上反复推广这段视频。
“So even if you don't think Alberta should separate, whatever you think that means, even if you're holding on to a strong emotional and patriotic attachment to Canada, as all of us do, you should still vote for Option 2 because you need to give the premier leverage,” he told one recent forum and has since promoted this clip repeatedly online.
威尔逊最近还在大力推广什么？10月17日，即投票前两天，在阿尔伯塔省立法会举行的大型集会。
What else is Wilson promoting heavily these days? A big gathering at the Alberta Legislature on Oct. 17, two days before the vote.
这场活动被宣传为“阿尔伯塔省独立运动集会”，但并未将其定位为一场支持扩大自治权或支持未来公民投票权的集会。实际上，它的目的是让威尔逊及其他演讲者向阿尔伯塔省的民众传达关于独立公投的相关信息。
It’s billed as the “Alberta independence rally.”It’s not being advertised as a pro-leverage, or pro-future-vote rally. They’re marketing it as a rally for the objective that Wilson and others speaking there are trying to tell Albertans the referendum about.
另一位独立运动活动家科里·摩根（Cory Morgan）也是此次集会的受邀演讲者之一。他一直敦促自己的支持者向选民传达这样一个信息：“我们要向渥太华传递一个明确的信息。”这一信息也出现在他所属的“通往独立之路”（Pathway to Independence）竞选团队制作的广告牌和宣传材料上。
Cory Morgan, a fellow independence activist, is another of the scheduled speakers. He’s also been urging his supporters to make “send Ottawa a message” their pitch to voters. In fact, that’s the message on billboards and lawn signs distributed by his campaign advertising group Pathway to Independence (note the name).
摩根鼓励他的追随者们采用这种较为温和的宣传方式，试图争取那些立场不明确的选民的支持；尽管他们的真正目标是推动阿尔伯塔省的独立。
Morgan has urged his followers to campaign on that softer theme of message-sending to the “mushy middle," even if their true goal is separation.
“对于像我以及许多其他人来说，最终结果其实并不重要。无论如何，我们都会争取独立，”他在周六的YouTube频道上说道，“但这次公投的真正目的并非如此。因此，我们不应该围绕这个话题进行宣传。距离公投还有三周时间，我们必须努力争取那些尚未做出决定的选民的支持。”
“For the people like me and many of you, it doesn't matter. We're going for independence one way or another, anyways,” he said Saturday on his Youtube channel.
然而，摩根和威尔逊面临的挑战是：在阿尔伯塔省的选民中，真正处于“中间立场”（即尚未决定支持独立还是留在加拿大）的人其实并不多。根据CBC新闻委托珍妮特·布朗（Janet Brown）进行的最新民意调查，只有4%的受访者表示“不确定自己的立场”；72%的受访者表示支持留在加拿大，23%的受访者希望举行具有约束力的公投。
“But that's not what this vote's about. So, let's not campaign on that. We've got three weeks left and we've really got to move that needle with the undecided in the middle.”The challenge Morgan and Wilson may face with that pitch is that there aren’t many Albertans in that undecided middle.
其他针对小规模选民群体的调查也得出了类似的结果。数据科学家约翰·桑托斯（John Santos）指出，这种观点早已在阿尔伯塔省的民众中根深蒂固。他还提到：早在今年春季，当支持独立的比例为27%时，珍妮特·布朗曾直接询问受访者“是支持留在加拿大还是支持独立”，但这种提问方式并未增加他们支持独立的可能性；相反，选民的支持率反而下降了。
In the latest Janet Brown Opinion Research poll for CBC News, the “not sure” group was only four per cent of respondents, compared to 72 per cent of people who would vote to remain in Canada and 23 per cent who want a binding referendum.
桑托斯表示，无论提出问题的方式如何，人们都更倾向于选择“保持现状”的选项。
Other surveys have delivered similar results with small pools of undecided voters. That sentiment has not only become “baked in” over time, said data scientist John Santos, but he also points out that when support levels for the pro-independence option stood a bit higher at 27 per cent in the spring, Janet Brown asked the straight stay-or-leave question.
“这表明，那些试图通过温和手段说服人们改变现状的策略其实并没有太大的市场吸引力，”他告诉CBC新闻。
It didn’t appear to make respondents any more likely to say “yes” to the independence option when September’s poll was asked with the current referendum wording; in fact, support dropped.
史密斯这位政治家虽然掌握着分离主义者所声称的“谈判筹码”，但她多次表示自己并不希望阿尔伯塔省脱离加拿大。
People vastly prefer the “stay” option, regardless of how it’s asked, Santos said.
省长表示，她更愿意将自己在移民和宪法改革等议题上的“赞成票”作为谈判的筹码，而不是将“阿尔伯塔省可能脱离加拿大”的威胁带到联邦谈判桌上。
“That suggests to me that there isn't a huge market for the soft sell,” he told CBC News.
“我认为有更好的解决办法，”史密斯在周一的一次活动中说，“如果你们感到不满或希望施加压力，那就投票支持继续维持这种关系吧。这九个议题的意义就在于：虽然现状并不完美，但我们认可加拿大为此所做的努力。”
Smith, the very politician that would wield any supposed leverage that separatists tout, has repeatedly said that she doesn’t want it.
卡尔加里市的一位联合保守党议员也将关于“保持现状”的议题描述成了与实际情况不同的东西。
Rather than bring the spectre of Alberta leaving to the federal negotiating table, the premier has said she’d prefer as her bargaining chip a slate of “yes” votes on her other referendum questions on immigration and constitutional reforms.
周一，雷德迪尔-南选区的议员杰森·斯蒂芬在给选民发送的新闻简报中批评“保持现状”的选项，称其“只是在维持现状，实际上是在让阿尔伯塔省继续走向衰落”。不过，斯蒂芬并未明确支持独立；史密斯的前议会宪法事务秘书在给雷德迪尔-南地区居民的信中写道，投票支持未来再次举行公投“将迫使渥太华解决现有的问题”。
“I say there is a better way,” Smith said at an event Monday. “If you're mad or you want to give leverage, let's vote to continue working on this relationship. That's what those nine questions are about, is saying things have not been perfect, but we recognize the effort that Canada is making.”Calgary Eyeopener Referendum 2026: Monte Solberg One of the premier's United Conservative caucus members has also characterized the unity question as something other than it explicitly is.
斯蒂芬此前曾支持分离主义者提出的举行具有约束力的公投的请求，但他本人并未表示会投票支持独立。不过，这种谨慎的言辞并未阻止新民主党领袖纳希德·恩希将这位政府议员称为“彻头彻尾的分离主义者”。
In a newsletter to constituents Monday, Red Deer-South MLA Jason Stephan disparaged the stay option as one that “affirms the status quo, a nation in decline, dragging Alberta down with it.”But Stephan stopped short of actually endorsing independence, which no Alberta MLA has done. Rather, voting for a future referendum would “compel Ottawa to fix what is broken,” Smith’s former parliamentary secretary for constitutional affairs wrote to Red Deer-South residents.
与此同时，联邦主义者认为对手所声称的“谈判筹码”其实根本不起作用。政治学家贾里德·韦斯利（属于“Lead Not Leave”组织）指出，分离主义者的言论实际上是在削弱他们自己的主张。
He’d previously supported the separatists’ petition to hold a binding referendum, without Stephan himself saying he’d vote yes. But such careful rhetoric hasn’t stopped NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi from calling the government MLA a “full-throated separatist.”Federalists, meanwhile, don’t believe their rivals’ idea of leverage would actually work. Political scientist Jared Wesley, part of the Lead Not Leave group, said separatists undercut their own message.
“只有当对方相信你确实有准备、并且有能力实施另一种方案时，这样的策略才能真正产生影响力，”他在最近的一篇 Substack 文章中写道。“一旦你向加拿大其他地区表明：对‘选项 2’的支持并不能真正反映人们对独立的真实态度，那么这种‘威胁’的可信度就立刻消失了。”摩根意识到许多阿尔伯塔省居民并不像他那样热衷于独立，民意调查也证明了这一点。但他不确定，将‘选项 2’仅仅当作一个“宣传信息”来使用，究竟会有多大的说服力。
“A gambit this big only creates leverage if the other side believes you are prepared and able to follow through on the alternative,” he wrote in a recent Substack post“The moment you tell the rest of Canada that support for Option 2 isn’t a true metric for independence support, you have killed the credibility of the threat.”Morgan expresses awareness that many Albertans don’t share his passion for independence, and that polling proves it. But he doesn’t know how persuasive making Option 2 a mere “message” actually will be.
“我完全不知道我们的努力是否真的能够改变现状，”他在接受 CBC 新闻采访时说道。
“I haven’t got a clue if we’re moving the needle at all,” he told CBC News in an interview.
至于威尔逊，他的竞选活动并不仅仅依赖于那些旨在将分离投票转化为谈判筹码的提案；他还委托他人撰写了报告，这些报告指出阿尔伯塔省独立后将会带来更多的繁荣与经济效益。在他最近发布的另一段视频中，他谈到了如果阿尔伯塔省在 10 月 19 日的投票中支持他，未来两国之间的“宪法关系”将会发生怎样的变化。
As for Wilson, his campaign efforts are not solely reliant on proposals to convert a secession vote into leverage. He’s also commissioned reports that suggest Alberta independence would bring more prosperity and economic benefits. In another of his latest videos, he’s talked about the changed “constitutional relationship” he foresees down the road if Alberta votes his way Oct. 19.
“阿尔伯塔省将成为一个‘主权国家’，其政府权力将集中在埃德蒙顿，”他对听众说，“埃德蒙顿将成为这个新国家的首都。”
Alberta becomes “sovereign” and its power resides in Edmonton. “That will become the country's capital, the country of Alberta,” he told listeners.
这样的言论显然更适合在独立运动的支持集会中使用，而不是在竞选活动即将结束的阶段举行的那些旨在争取谈判筹码的活动中使用。
That’s the sort of message that should go over better at an independence rally, rather than any pro-leverage event Wilson may hold in the campaign’s dying days.