Gartner预测，到2028年，由于成本不断上升，且客户在没有外部帮助的情况下难以对相关技术进行修改，70%的企业将放弃那些在供应商协助下开发的智能（AI）系统。Gartner所称的“前置工程模式”（Forward-Deployed Engineering, FDE）是指让供应商的工程师与客户共同合作，根据客户的特定需求来开发和部署软件。
Gartner predicts that by 2028, 70 percent of enterprises will abandon agentic AI systems built with vendor assistance as costs climb and customers struggle to modify the technology without outside help. What the consultancy calls forward-deployed engineering (FDE) embeds a vendor's engineers with a customer to build and deploy software for its particular requirements.
Gartner认为，这种模式虽然能够带来快速的初期进展，但会使得客户变得依赖昂贵的外部技术支持。Gartner的高级分析师Mukul Saha指出：“FDE模式的成功首先取决于项目结构的合理性——包括项目的范围、激励机制、治理机制、责任归属以及项目的结束方式。那些规划最为周密的FDE项目从一开始就明确了治理规则、业务价值实现方式、知识产权归属、项目合作方式以及退出策略。”
Gartner argues that the model can deliver rapid early progress but leave customers dependent on expensive external expertise. According to Gartner, FDE engagements can fail when customers do not acquire the knowledge and control needed to maintain and develop the resulting systems after the vendor leaves. FDE "success starts with getting the engagement structure right, from scope and incentives to governance, ownership, and exit," said Gartner senior director analyst Mukul Saha.
他补充说：“许多供应商现在将‘前置工程模式’用于各种服务（如实施服务、专业咨询服务或AI咨询），有些供应商这样做是出于战略考虑，而有些则只是为了提升自身的市场形象；不过，有些供应商在提供这些服务时并未真正具备相应的专业能力或项目管理能力，也没有完善的变更管理机制来确保项目的顺利进行。”
"The best-scoped FDE engagements have clear guidelines on governance, business value delivery, IP ownership, project co-ownership, knowledge transfer, and an exit strategy from day one," he added. "Many providers now use 'forward deployed' as a label for implementation, professional services, solution engineering, or AI consulting; some thoughtfully, others because it sounds more strategic.
如果AI行业承诺的结果实际上无法实现，那这种模式自然应该被淘汰。Gartner建议软件工程领域的领导者仅在以下情况下采用FDE模式：当问题需要深厚的产品专业知识、快速的技术适配能力，或者需要将供应商的技术与客户的运营环境紧密集成时。否则，客户虽然可能会在初期看到明显的进展，但却无法建立起自己掌握技术控制权所需的能力。最终，他们可能会为这些服务支付高昂的费用，而这些服务其实可以通过传统的服务模式或合作伙伴关系以更高效、更可预测的方式获得。
Some charge premium fees without the delivery depth, program management, or change management maturity to justify them." The AI industry promising outcomes it can't deliver? Perish the thought. Gartner advises software engineering leaders to use FDE only for problems requiring deep product expertise, rapid adaptation, or close integration between the vendor's technology and the customer's operating environment. Otherwise, customers may see rapid early progress without building the internal capabilities needed to take control. They could then end up paying premium rates for work that a traditional services or partner model might deliver more cost-effectively and predictably.
Gartner还预测，到2028年，不到20%的FDE合作项目会将客户的重复性需求转化为供应商核心产品中的功能。它警告称，“FDE注水”的风险日益加剧，即把传统咨询服务包装成更专业化的服务来营销。这并非Gartner首次警告AI项目的潜在成本和陷阱。今年早些时候，它预测至少一半的生成式AI项目将因架构选择不当和缺乏运营专业知识而超出预算，而大多数尝试构建定制模型的组织也会因类似原因而放弃这些模型。
Gartner also predicts that through 2028, fewer than 20 percent of FDE engagements will turn recurring customer requirements into features in the vendor's core product. It warns of a growing risk of "FDE washing," in which conventional consulting services are marketed as something more specialized. This isn't the first time that Gartner has warned of the potential costs and pitfalls of AI projects. Earlier this year, it forecast that at least half of generative AI projects will exceed their budgets due to poor architectural choices and lack of operational know-how, while most organizations that try to build custom models will abandon them for similar reasons.
它还表示，预计40%的AI代理部署将被缩减或停用，因为各组织在这项技术的治理方面遇到了问题。最近，该分析机构预测，因AI而被裁员的员工中，近三分之一将需要在未来某个时候重新聘用，而且往往成本要高得多。®
It also said it expects 40 percent of AI agent deployments would be scaled back or decommissioned as organizations run into governance problems with the technology. More recently, the analyst predicted that nearly a third of employees laid off because of AI will need to be rehired again at a future date, often at significantly higher cost. ®