就在这些内存制造商的市值突破1万亿美元大关的几个月后，据一位华尔街分析师称，一些芯片制造商的市值也有望达到2万亿美元。Melius科技公司的首席技术研究员本·赖茨斯（Ben Reitzes）在周三发给客户的报告中指出，内存制造商美光（Micron）和专注于CPU业务的AMD都可能朝着2万亿美元的市值目标迈进。赖茨斯认为，AMD实现2万亿美元市值的潜力主要源于CPU在人工智能领域中的重要性日益凸显——因为系统架构对CPU的需求远高于对GPU（图形处理器）的需求。
Just a few months after the big memory makers crossed the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold, some chipmakers are set up to reach $2 trillion, according to one Wall Street analyst. Ben Reitzes, head of technology research at Melius, said in Wednesday note to clients that memory maker Micron and CPU-focused AMD may both be on the path to a $2 trillion market cap. AMD's $2 trillion viability is due to the renewed importance of the CPU within agentic artificial intelligence, according to Reitzes, as system architectures need more CPUs relative to GPUs, or graphics processors.
他写道：“为了达到下一个1万亿美元的目标，AMD需要证明其每股收益（EPS）达到50美元以上是可行的；也就是说，该公司2030年实现每股收益超过20美元的目标需要进一步大幅提升。”
"To achieve its next trillion, it will likely need to demonstrate that EPS power of $50+ is possible – meaning its 2030 target of > $20 in EPS needs to go a lot higher," he wrote.
美光实现2万亿美元市值的路径依赖于人工智能领域计算效率的提升，因为越来越多的系统开始使用内存。不过，美光的业务仍受到传统周期性波动的影响（即市场会出现繁荣与衰退的周期）。赖茨斯表示：“美光过去的发展历程（即其业务的周期性特征）正在限制其进一步的发展。就等着看这些公司是否能在2027或2028年回购相当于其市值25%的股票吧……就连Jensen Huang（英伟达的CEO）恐怕也做不到这一点。”
AMD YTD mountain AMD ytd Micron's $2 trillion path is founded on computational efficiency gains in AI that come as more memory is used in systems. The thing holding Micron back is the traditional cyclicality of its business, characterized by boom and bust periods. "The 'memory' of memory's past is holding it down. Just wait for these guys to buy back 25% of their market cap in 2027/28 – not even Jensen can do that," Reitzes said, referring to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
与赖茨斯的观点相反，因曾做空房地产泡沫而引发2007-2009年金融危机的著名投资者迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）则认为内存行业的周期性将会再次显现。他认为，随着中国内存产能的不断增加，当前的市场短缺状况将会得到缓解，从而结束该行业目前所拥有的高定价能力和高利润率。伯里在9月22日发布在Substack上的文章中写道：“在未来两年内，随着产能的逐步提升，这种短缺状况将会消失，内存行业将再次进入低迷期。”
MU YTD mountain Micron ytd. Michael Burry , the investor famous for shorting the housing bubble that triggered the 2007-2009 great financial crisis, has recently taken the opposite view. He thinks cyclicality is set to return to memory in force and that ramping Chinese memory capacity will alleviate shortages that have enabled tremendous pricing power and profit margins in the sector. "Over the next two years this shortage will blow off as production catches up, and memory will have a down cycle again," Burry wrote in a Sept. 22 Substack post .
美光将于周三收盘后公布财报。市场分析师预计该公司股价在收盘后会上涨7%。
Micron will report earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Market makers are pricing a 7% move for the stock after the close.
据FactSet estimates，预计每股收益为31.72美元，销售额为513.3亿美元。周三美国东部时间中午，美光股价上涨0.8%。据FactSet数据显示，该股年内累计上涨276%。
Earnings of $31.72 per share and sales of $51.33 billion are expected, according to estimates from FactSet. Micron stock is up 0.8% as of noon ET on Wednesday. Shares are up 276% year to date, according to FactSet.