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Kalshi的交易员认为Anthropic今年宣布IPO的可能性很高Kalshi traders see high odds Anthropic's IPO is announced this year

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2026年4月30日星期四,Anthropic联合创始人兼首席执行官Dario Amodei在位于美国加利福尼亚州旧金山的Anthropic总部接受"The Circuit with Emily Chang"节目采访。

Dario Amodei, co-founder and chief executive officer of Anthropic, during an interview on "The Circuit with Emily Chang" at Anthropic's headquarters in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, April 30, 2026.

Jason Henry | Bloomberg | Getty Images 多家媒体报道称Anthropic计划在其IPO招股说明书中警告投资者其模型具有危险性,此后Kalshi交易员认为Anthropic今年宣布首次公开募股(IPO)的几率增加。

Jason Henry | Bloomberg | Getty Images Kalshi traders see greater odds that Anthropic will announce an initial public offering this year after several news outlets reported that the company plans to warn investors in its IPO prospectus that its models are dangerous.

该AI公司在11月前宣布IPO的几率从9月28日的4.7%跃升至周三下午的16%。

Chances that the AI company announces an initial public offering before November jumped from 4.7% on Sept. 28 to 16% Wednesday afternoon.

Kalshi交易员认为,在12月前宣布IPO的几率超过60%,在1月前宣布的可能性接近80%。根据Kalshi网站显示,该合约询问公司何时将宣布IPO,并将通过新闻媒体和公司本身进行验证。

Kalshi traders see a greater than 60% chance an IPO is announced before December and nearly 80% likelihood that it happens before January. The contract asks when the company will announce an IPO and will be verified from news outlets and the company itself, according to Kalshi website.

根据路透社报道,这家成立于2021年的AI公司警告投机性投资者,其模型对人类构成"灾难性或生存性风险"。同一报道称,Anthropic警告AI能够"抵抗关闭"、隐藏或"操纵信息",或表现出"类似勒索"的行为。Anthropic于6月秘密提交了IPO招股说明书,寻求上市时达到2万亿美元估值。路透社报道称,该公司计划在未来一年在云计算等基础设施上投入超过5000亿美元。

Founded in 2021, the AI company alerted speculative investors its models are a "catastrophic or existential risk to humanity," according to a Reuters report The same report said Anthropic warned AI can "resist shutdown," hide or "manipulate information" or exhibit behavior "resembling blackmail." Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO prospectus in June and is seeking a $2 trillion valuation when it goes public. Reuters reported the company plans to spend over $500 billion on cloud computing, among other infrastructure in the coming year.

多家公司都在加剧对AI如何毁灭人类的担忧。Anthropic的竞争对手OpenAI在表示该公司预计今年不会上市时,援引了AI安全问题。

Escalating concerns on how AI can devastate humanity is coming from multiple companies. Anthropic's competitor, OpenAI cited issues on AI safety when stating the company is not expected to go public this year.

在Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei本月初撰文呼吁AI公司放缓改进其最先进模型的进程后,OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman和SpaceX首席执行官Elon Musk均表示支持该提议。

After Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei wrote an essay requesting that AI companies slow down the process of improving their most advanced models earlier this month, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk supported the proposal.

披露:CNBC 与 Kalshi 之间存在商业合作关系,该合作包括客户开发(客户获取)以及 Kalshi 对 CNBC 的少数股权投资。

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.