纳斯达克指数目前仅比上周的历史高点低了不到1%,期权交易者正在对两家大型科技公司(Alphabet和Microsoft)进行大规模的押注。这两家公司的股价至少自5月以来就再也没有创下新的高点。
With the Nasdaq trading less than 1% off all-time highs from last week, options traders are placing some big bets on two big-tech that haven't made new highs since at least May: Alphabet and Microsoft.
周三,这两家公司的期权交易量均超过了30天平均水平的50%;此前公布的宏观经济数据好于预期(尤其是通胀率有所下降),导致股市行情走强。尽管下午债券价格出现下跌,Alphabet的股价仍上涨了2.7%,Microsoft的股价则上涨了1.8%。
Options volume was more than 50% above the 30-day average in both names Wednesday as equities firmed following economic data in the morning that came in better than expected, including a softer inflation print.
根据Cboe LiveVol、SpotGamma和Barchart等平台收集的期权交易数据,Alphabet的期权交易呈现出明显的看涨趋势:看涨期权的交易量是看跌期权的两倍多,其中买方发出的看涨期权数量接近15万份,而卖方发出的看涨期权数量则不到10万份。在当日金额最大的20笔交易中,有14笔是看涨交易、4笔是中立交易、2笔是看跌交易——对于这样一只备受关注的股票来说,这种交易倾向非常罕见。截至周三中午,Alphabet相关的期权交易总金额已超过2.6亿美元,其中超过2亿美元来自看涨期权交易。
Even as bond prices rolled over in the afternoon, Alphabet held onto a 2.7% advance, and Microsoft added 1.8%. Trading in Alphabet was particularly one-sided and bullish, judging by options flow data compiled across Cboe LiveVol, SpotGamma and Barchart. Total call volume was more than double put-trading, with just shy of 150,000 calls likely initiated by buyers. That compared to fewer than 100,000 calls sold and just 50,000 puts bought.
在Alphabet的交易中,最活跃的交易是购买到期日为明年6月的、执行价格为250美元的看涨期权;此外,投资者还大量购买了到期日为11月20日的、执行价格为370美元的看涨期权以及到期日为周五的、执行价格为350美元的看涨期权。这些看涨期权的交易价格分别为11.40美元,只有当股价上涨9%时,投资者才能获利。
Among the top 20 transactions by dollar-amount, 14 were bullish, four were neutral, and two bearish in Alphabet – an unusually slanted stance among the biggest trades of the day, even for a "Magnificent Seven" stock. More than $260 million in premium traded by midday Wednesday, with more than $200 million tied to calls.
在Microsoft的交易中,投资者购买了超过13万份看涨期权,而看跌期权的交易量则不到5.2万份。虽然卖方也卖出了一定数量的看涨期权,但从净Delta值来看,交易者普遍预期Microsoft的股价会上涨。Microsoft相关的期权交易总金额约为5亿美元,其中4亿美元来自看涨期权交易,其中约2.2亿美元是投资者新买入的期权。
The biggest purchase was for in-the-money 250-strike calls expiring next June in GOOGL, with additional heavy call-buying in the 370-strike call expiring Nov. 20, as well as the 350-strike call near the money expiring Friday. The 370-strike calls trade for $11.40 each and need a 9% rally to pay off.
在Microsoft的交易中,最活跃的交易是购买到期日为明年6月的、执行价格为250美元的看涨期权;此外,投资者还大量购买了到期日为11月20日的、执行价格为370美元的看涨期权以及到期日为周五的、执行价格为350美元的看涨期权。这些看涨期权的交易价格同样为11.40美元,同样需要股价上涨9%才能让投资者获利。
In Microsoft, traders likely bought more than 130,000 calls, compared to fewer than 52,00 puts. They sold about as many calls, but the net delta exposure of trading in the stock suggests traders today prefer Microsoft shares to rise. Almost $500 million in Microsoft options traded, with $400 million in premium tied to calls, $220 million of which was likely purchased.
虽然大部分交易都集中在深度实值的看涨期权上,但有一笔具有投机性质的交易格外引人注目:在12月18日到期的期权合约中,有人花费了1200万美元购买了3000份行权价为500美元的实值看涨期权;随后,他们又通过出售约200万美元的行权价为600美元、同样在当天到期的看涨期权来降低自己的成本,从而构建了一个看涨型期权组合。
该组合的盈亏平衡点约为530美元,相对于微软股票的当前价格而言,这一价格高出约2.3%;如果微软股票在当天收盘时能够达到这一价格,那将创下新的历史高点。
While most of the buying was concentrated in deep in-the-money calls, one possible speculative trade stood out: in the Dec. 18 expiry, someone spent $12 million buying 3,000 in-the-money 500-strike calls, and lowered their cost by selling about $2 million of 600-strikes expiring the same day, creating a bullish spread trade with a breakeven near $530, or about 2.3% higher in Microsoft, which would be a new high on a closing basis for Microsoft.