参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默与共和党竞选委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特有一个共同点：他们都非常期待唐纳德·特朗普能投身到竞选活动中。
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and GOP campaign chair Tim Scott have something in common: They’re both really excited for President Donald Trump to hit the campaign trail.
“特朗普外出活动时，只会伤害民众的利益，”舒默在周三晚上的采访中对《Semafor》杂志表示；“不过当他来到某个城市时，这对我们来说确实有一定帮助。但他总是说一些无关紧要的话，说些根本没人关心的东西。”斯科特则认为特朗普在竞选活动中是一大“资产”——不过这个“资产”是针对共和党人而言的，而非舒默领导的民主党。
“When Trump travels, he hurts people,” Schumer told Semafor in an interview on Wednesday evening. “When he comes to town, that itself helps us. But then he always talks about the wrong things. He talks about things people don’t give a damn about.”Scott described Trump as a critical asset on the campaign trail — albeit for Republicans, not Schumer’s Democrats.
“这次是中期选举，”斯科特对记者们说，“特朗普正在做出正确的决策，以确保我们继续保持在参议院的多数席位。因此我相信他的团队和竞选策略，因为他的直觉向来很准。这也是我们如今仍占据多数席位的原因之一。”随着特朗普准备在参议院的关键选区展开竞选活动，斯科特还巧妙地批评了共和党得克萨斯州候选人肯·帕克斯顿。
帕克斯顿曾在被《纽约时报》曝光的音频中称，得克萨斯州的共和党大会“削弱了我们的支持率”；斯科特则坚决反驳说帕克斯顿完全错了，坚称共和党大会以及特朗普的出席实际上提升了共和党的支持率。
“This is his midterm election,” Scott told reporters of Trump. “President Trump is making the best decisions to keep us in the majority. So I trust his scheduling team and his strategy because his instincts have proven to be good. It’s one of the reasons why we’re in the majority today.”As Trump prepares to crisscross the Senate battleground map, Scott even threw a gentle jab at GOP Texas candidate Ken Paxton, who said on leaked audio reported by The New York Times that the GOP convention in Texas “dropped our numbers.”Scott said Paxton is “just wrong,” insisting that the convention and Trump’s presence boosted Republicans.
不过，舒默与斯科特对选举结果的看法截然不同。斯科特坚信共和党会保住参议院的多数席位，理由包括共和党选民的热情正在上升、许多选区竞争激烈，以及共和党在竞选资金上的巨大优势；他甚至预测共和党可能会赢得更多席位。而舒默则认为，争夺多数席位的胜负就像抛硬币一样难以预料——一年前几乎没人会认为民主党有胜算；他同时警告说，民主党仍有可能输掉这场选举。
Schumer and Scott otherwise presented dramatically different views of which way the election is going. Scott essentially guaranteed that Republicans will retain the Senate majority, citing improving GOP enthusiasm, a large number of toss-up races, and a huge spending advantage. He predicted his party could even pick up seats. Schumer, meanwhile, said the battle for the majority is a coin flip — the type of odds basically no one would give Democrats a year ago. He warned that his party could still lose.
“胜算是五五开。我们正处于胜利的边缘，但有两件事可能会让我们输掉比赛：第一，他们可能会通过不正当手段窃取选举结果；第二，就是资金问题——他们的财力实在过于雄厚，”舒默说道。“我们所需要的只是足够的资金来应对他们可能发起的一切攻击，而在这方面我们做得还不错。”周三参议院仍在正常开会，但两党都已全面进入了竞选模式：民主党人拒绝了内布拉斯加州议员皮特·里克茨和俄亥俄州议员乔恩·赫斯特德提出的有关股票交易、选民身份验证以及数据中心的法案，他们不希望在中期选举前让共和党有任何胜利的机会。斯科特表示，这些民主党的阻挠行为正是“我们能够保住多数席位的原因之一”。
“It’s 50-50. We’re right on the edge of winning. Two things could have us lose. One, they steal the election. … The second thing is money. They have obscene amounts of money,” Schumer said. “All we need is enough to be able to answer the sh*t they’re going to throw at us, and we’re doing well there.”The Senate was in session on Wednesday, but both parties are in full campaign mode: Democrats rejected stock trading and voter ID legislation and a data center bill from two GOP incumbents — Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Jon Husted of Ohio — refusing to give Republicans any win weeks before the midterms. Scott said that moment “is one of the reasons why we’ll hold on to the majority,” citing the Democratic filibusters of those bills.
然而现实是，参议院的争夺战正处于关键时刻：民主党确实有机会赢得所需的四个席位以获得多数优势，但共和党在那些传统上属于他们的选区（如德克萨斯州和爱荷华州）的民调结果非常胶着，因此他们仍抱有希望。共和党在德克萨斯州和爱荷华州等州的巨额竞选开支凸显了他们所面临的挑战；即便是向来乐观的舒默也不敢保证自己一方能够获胜。
But the reality is the battle for the Senate is on a knife’s edge, with Democrats standing a real chance of netting the four seats they need for the majority but Republicans seeing enough tight polls in red territory to hope they can hold on. The boatload of GOP spending in places like Texas and Iowa points to the challenges that Republicans are facing, but even the perpetually sunny Schumer isn’t guaranteeing victory yet.
“我用一句话来总结这场选举：巨额的共和党资金优势，能否战胜民主党在候选人数量和政治氛围方面的巨大优势呢？”舒默问道。“我认为我们会赢。”两党都认为，这场选举的胜负关键在于共和党控制的俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、缅因州、北卡罗来纳州和阿拉斯加州的席位，以及民主党控制的新罕布什尔州和密歇根州的席位。民主党人还认为自己在堪萨斯州也有机会获胜——或许在其他一些传统上属于共和党的州也能取得胜利。
“Here’s how I sum up the election in one sentence: Can an enormous Republican advantage in dollars defeat an enormous Democratic advantage in candidates and in political climate?”Schumer asked. “I think we win.”Both parties agree the battleground is focused on GOP held seats in Ohio, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Texas, and Alaska and Democratic seats in New Hampshire and Michigan. Democrats think they can compete in Kansas as well — and perhaps a handful of other typically red states.
斯科特也不得不承认：堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔对阵民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿的竞选局势实在过于胶着，胜负难以预料。
Scott begrudgingly agreed that Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s re-election campaign against Democrat Adam Hamilton is too close for comfort.
“这是一个竞争非常激烈的州，比我希望看到的还要激烈。但事实是，我们将在堪萨斯州获胜，”斯科特说。“结果会比我希望的更接近。”舒默拒逐州分析，仅表示特朗普对加拿大的关税正在损害密歇根州前共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯的前景。随着密西西比州和佛罗里达州等遥远州份的民主党人向党方请求更多支持，他承认机会众多，但坚持本党必须高效运作。
“It’s a very competitive state, more competitive than I’d like to see it. But the fact of the matter is that we’re going to win in Kansas,” Scott said. “It’ll be closer than I want it to be.”Schumer declined to break down the states individually other than to say Trump’s tariffs on Canada are hurting former Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers. As Democrats in states as far afield as Mississippi and Florida ask the party for more support, he acknowledged there are plenty of opportunities but insisted his party needs to be efficient.
“我们拥有广阔的竞选版图，有许多可以获胜的地方，我们将最大化我们的能力，争取在尽可能多的州获胜，”舒默说。
“We have a big map, and a lot of places where we can win, and we’re going to maximize our ability to win as many states as possible,” Schumer said.
特朗普的造势行程是参议院竞选中剩下的最大变数之一。他在2018年的助选帮助共和党在多个红州赢得席位，尽管当时众议院出现了蓝色浪潮。
Trump’s campaign trail presence is among the biggest variables left in the Senate races. His campaigning in 2018 helped Republicans pick up seats in a number of red states despite a blue wave in the House.
共和党内部认为，俄亥俄、阿拉斯加、爱荷华和得克萨斯等州的反特朗普选民基本已成定局。他们需要总统在这些州动员基本盘，尽管特朗普现身助选也带来风险。
Republicans privately reason that anti-Trump voters in states like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas are already baked in. They need the president to turn out the base in those states, despite the risks that a Trump campaign appearance brings.
随着广告预订接近定案、国会即将休会离开华盛顿直到11月，总统本人已成为最大的选举变数。
And with ad reservations close to being set and Congress now vacating Washington until November, the president himself has become the biggest election wildcard.