史蒂夫·罗森伯格 俄罗斯编辑 莫斯科 35分钟前当弗拉基米尔·普京周三抵达俄罗斯议会发表讲话时，热烈的欢迎是板上钉钉的。
Steve Rosenberg Russia editor Moscow 35 minutes ago When Vladimir Putin arrived to address Russia's parliament on Wednesday, a warm welcome was guaranteed.
正如一家俄罗斯报纸将上个月的立法选举称为“特别选举行动”，这次选举产生了一个比以往任何时候都更亲普京的国家杜马。执政党“统一俄罗斯党”现在拥有比以往更多的议员席位。这使克里姆林宫能够声称已从俄罗斯人民手中获得了巨大的授权。但这是为了什么？普京将如何利用它？
"The Special Election Operation", as one Russian newspaper dubbed last month's legislative vote has produced a State Duma even more pro-Putin than anything before it. The ruling party, United Russia, now has more MPs than ever. It allows the Kremlin to claim it has been handed a huge mandate from the Russian people. But for what? How will Putin use it?
有没有迹象表明他准备停止他所谓的“特别军事行动”？还是说我们应该为乌克兰局势和与欧洲的紧张关系进一步升级做好准备？
Are there any signs he is prepared to halt what he calls the special military operation? Or should we brace for further escalation in Ukraine and in tensions with Europe?
周四我将关注俄罗斯领导人在莫斯科举行的瓦尔代讨论俱乐部年会上露面时，是否会透露他的计划。传统上，总统在这个年度外交政策论坛上的讲话能让人窥见普京的世界观。
On Thursday I'll be watching to see whether Russia's leader sheds light on his plans during an appearance at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow. Traditionally the president's speech at this annual foreign policy forum provides insight into Putin's world view.
目前，一切迹象都表明普京将继续俄罗斯对乌克兰的全面入侵：尽管迄今为止俄罗斯在战场上遭受了巨大损失，经济也受到了损害。普京的演讲和声明表明，他依然坚信俄罗斯能够取得军事胜利。
Right now, everything points to Putin continuing Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: despite his country's huge battlefield losses to date and the damage being done to Russia's economy. Putin's speeches and statements suggest he remains confident that Russia can secure a military victory.
法新社/盖蒂图片社 俄罗斯9月的议会选举受到克里姆林宫的严密控制，当选的“统一俄罗斯党”议员人数创下历史新高从俄罗斯媒体的报道来看，莫斯科对乌克兰防空导弹短缺感到鼓舞，同时预计俄罗斯今冬的打击将增加对乌克兰人的压力。基辅方面表示，难以拦截俄罗斯的弹道导弹和新型喷气式无人机，后者每天都在袭击乌克兰。此外，在更远的地方？
AFP via Getty Images Russia's parliamentary vote in September was tightly controlled by the Kremlin and saw more United Russia MPs elected than ever before Judging by what is being reported in Russian media, Moscow is encouraged by the shortage of air defence missiles in Ukraine, as well as the expectation that Russian strikes this winter will increase pressure on Ukrainians. Kyiv has spoken of its difficulty in shooting down Russia's ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones, which have been targeting Ukraine every day. And further afield?
克里姆林宫从未掩饰其希望欧洲国家大幅削减对乌克兰的军事和财政支持：莫斯科称这种支持正在拖长战争——或者更确切地说，妨碍了俄罗斯的胜利。
The Kremlin has made no secret of the fact it wants European states to slash their military and financial backing for Ukraine: the kind of support Moscow says is prolonging the war - or, rather, getting in the way of a Russian victory.
为了达成这一目的，西方官员认为俄罗斯一直在发出不那么隐晦的信号。
To achieve this, Western officials believe Russia has been sending not so subtle signals.
他们指责莫斯科通过网络攻击、破坏活动以及俄罗斯无人机侵犯欧洲领空，对欧洲国家发动升级的混合战争。在德国，一架携带爆炸装置的无人机在莱比锡机场靠近乌克兰货运飞机的地方被发现。
They accuse Moscow of waging an escalating hybrid war on European countries through cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage, and Russian drones violating European airspace. In Germany, a drone carrying an explosive device was found close to Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport.
这是一场在“灰色地带”展开的秘密行动，即介于和平与战争之间的空间。
A covert campaign in the "grey zone", that space between peace and war.
本周我向俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫提问：他是否承认本国正在对欧洲国家发动混合战争？
This week I asked Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, does he admit that his country is waging a hybrid war against European countries?
“你是指我们摧毁英国和欧洲大陆供应给乌克兰、并被用来攻击我们的无人机和导弹吗？”拉夫罗夫反问。
"Do you mean when we destroy drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe are supplying Ukraine with, and which are used to attack us?" Lavrov replied.
“如果你承认你们的武器被用来打击我们，而我们将其摧毁，随便你怎么称呼。但我毫无疑问地认为，这是欧洲在对我们发动战争。我们已经说了很长时间了。” “这是欧洲在对我们发动战争”：拉夫罗夫接受BBC采访时表示 这确实一直是俄罗斯官方的一贯立场：乌克兰发生的一切相当于欧洲对俄罗斯发动的战争。这一叙事跳过了这样一个事实：2022年是克里姆林宫发动了全面入侵乌克兰，且俄罗斯至今仍在当地进行战争。俄罗斯为了切断欧洲对基辅的支持，会走多远？
"If you admit your weapons are being used to strike us and we destroy them, call it whatever you want. But I have no doubt this is a war Europe is waging against us. We've been saying so for a long time." "This is a war Europe is waging against us": Sergei Lavrov speaks to the BBC That, indeed, has been the official Russian stance for some time: that what is happening in Ukraine amounts to a European war on Russia. It is a narrative that skips over the fact that in 2022 it was the Kremlin that launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that Russia continues to wage war there. How far would Russia go to sever European support for Kyiv?
例如，莫斯科是否正在积极准备主动在欧洲与北约成员国发起军事冲突？这似乎不太可能。经过四年半的战争，俄罗斯军队尚未完全占领紧邻俄罗斯的乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区。
Is Moscow, for example, actively preparing to initiate military conflict in Europe with a Nato member state? That seems unlikely. After more than four-and-a-half years of war Russia's army has not yet managed to occupy the whole of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, right next door to Russia.
与欧洲开战或许并非计划之中，但通过恐吓欧洲以削减对基辅的支持，很可能才是真实意图。请听听这些言论。
Fighting Europe may not be the plan, but freaking it out, to reduce support for Kyiv, could well be the intention. Listen to the messaging.
“如果他们继续这场战争，这场在美国帮助下、在乌克兰领土上、欧洲对抗俄罗斯的战争，迟早我们会感到有必要升级冲突，”俄罗斯外交与国防政策委员会荣誉主席、著名外交政策战略家谢尔盖·卡拉加诺夫警告说。
"If they continue this war, a European war with American help, against Russia, on Ukrainian territory, sooner or later we'll feel the need to escalate," warns prominent foreign policy strategist Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia's Council for Foreign and Defence Policy.
“根据我的设想，第一轮打击将是常规的，”他告诉我。“但如果欧洲不投降，不幸的是，我们将不得不使用核武器。一些欧洲国家将所剩无几。”
"According to my scenarios, the first series of blows will be conventional," he told me. "But if Europe does not surrender, unfortunately, we will have to go nuclear. There will be little left of some European countries."
但我指出，如果俄罗斯动用核武器，欧洲会做出回应，俄罗斯也将所剩无几。
But if Russia went nuclear there would be a response from Europe, and nothing would be left of Russia, I suggest.
“不，欧洲不会有回应，”卡拉加诺夫说。“什么，英国会用核武器攻击俄罗斯？我希望你没那么疯狂。我确信美国人也没那么疯狂。”
"No, there will be no response from Europe," said Karaganov. "What, Britain will attack Russia with nuclear weapons? I hope you're not that crazy. I'm sure the Americans are not that crazy."
谢尔盖·卡拉加诺夫（右）表示，如果欧洲继续援助乌克兰，俄罗斯将“不得不使用核武器”我问他是否同意过去四年半对俄罗斯来说是灾难性的，无论是在伤亡方面，还是安全和经济形势恶化方面。
Sergei Karaganov (R) says Russia will "have to go nuclear" if Europe keeps helping Ukraine I asked him if he agreed the last four-and-a-half years had been disastrous for Russia, in terms of casualties and the worsening security and economic situation.
“是的，我们损失了很多人，”他承认道，“我批评政府不够强硬。但现在我们在乌克兰变得足够强硬了。我们正在让乌克兰不再是一个生存能力的国家。”
"We've lost a lot of people, yes," he admitted, "and I criticise my government for not being rough enough. But now we are getting rough enough in Ukraine. We're doing away with Ukraine as a viable state."
如果“让乌克兰不再是一个生存能力的国家”是莫斯科的目标，很难想象战争会很快结束。与此同时，俄罗斯继续抨击其所认为的西方双重标准。
If "doing away with Ukraine as a viable state" is Moscow's goal, it is hard to imagine the war ending soon. Meanwhile, Russia continues to rail against what it sees as the double standards of the West.
在最近的联合国大会发言中，谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫指责西方在世界各地诉诸“暴力”。
In his recent address at the UN General Assembly, Sergei Lavrov accused the West of resorting to "brute force" around the world.
“他们在委内瑞拉所做的，是软实力还是暴力？”俄罗斯外长本周问我。他指的是美国1月在加拉加斯采取军事行动抓捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗。"[美国]轰炸并摧毁了伊朗的领导层及其家人，包括儿童，这难道不是蛮力吗？" 但俄罗斯不也是在乌克兰每天都在诉诸蛮力吗？我反问道。"如果你指的是摧毁由西方支持的纳粹政权用来对俄罗斯联邦发动战争的基础设施，那么我们确实是在诉诸蛮力，以消除这一对我们的直接威胁。"
"What they did in Venezuela, was that soft power or brute force?" Russia's foreign minister asked me this week. He was referring to America's military operation in Caracas to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro back in January. "The fact that [the US] bombed and destroyed Iran's leadership, along with their families, including children, is that not brute force?" But was Russia not resorting to brute force every day in Ukraine, I replied. "If you mean the destruction of infrastructure used by a Nazi regime backed by the West to wage war on the Russian Federation, then we are resorting to brute force to eliminate this direct threat to us."
这不仅是俄罗斯官方叙事的又一要素：将乌克兰描绘为新纳粹国家，制造虚假借口以证明俄罗斯行动的正当性。
Not only is this another element of Russia' official narrative: painting Ukraine as a neo-Nazi state, creating a false pretext to justify Russia's actions.
随着俄罗斯承认在乌克兰使用"蛮力"，这也进一步证明了莫斯科没有停止战斗的意愿。
With the admission of Russia's use of "brute force" in Ukraine, it is also further evidence that Moscow is in no mood to stop fighting.