根据策略师们的分析，重新活跃的厄尔尼诺现象可能会加剧东南亚债券市场的抛售潮，导致债券收益率进一步上升。与此同时，美国国债利率的上升以及油价的上涨也在给该地区的债务市场带来压力。
By Marcus Wong A resurgent El Niño pattern risks deepening a selloff in Southeast Asian bonds, strategists say, threatening to push yields higher just as rising US Treasury rates and oil prices squeeze regional debt.
由于厄尔尼诺现象引发的干旱导致食品价格通胀，东南亚地区的基准债券收益率面临进一步上升的风险。据彭博社的分析，这种风险主要集中在菲律宾和泰国等经济体上——这些国家的食品消费价格指数在新兴亚洲国家中占比最高；在2023年至2024年厄尔尼诺现象达到高峰期间，当地债券收益率确实随着食品成本的上升而上升。
Benchmark bond yields across Southeast Asia are vulnerable to further increases as droughts caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon drive food inflation. The risk is concentrated in economies like the Philippines and Thailand, which carry emerging Asia’s highest food consumer price index weightings and saw elevated yields coincide with rising food costs when El Niño last peaked in 2023 to 2024, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
威廉·布莱尔投资管理公司（William Blair Investment Management）的高级企业信用与可持续发展分析师亚历山德拉·西梅奥尼迪（Alexandra Symeonidi）认为，市场可能低估了厄尔尼诺现象带来的风险。她指出，这意味着债券市场应该承担更高的风险溢价，否则可能会对东南亚地区的债券市场造成负面影响。
There’s a reasonable case that the market is underpricing the risk from El Niño, according to Alexandra Symeonidi, senior corporate credit and sustainability analyst at William Blair Investment Management. This argues for a higher risk premium than is currently reflected and “could pose a risk to bonds in Southeast Asia,” she said.
这一警告正值美国气候预测中心预测当前厄尔尼诺现象有75%的可能性成为历史性事件（超过自1950年以来的记录）。东南亚地区的债券市场已经面临双重压力：一是美国国债收益率的上升（这导致资金流向美国）；二是油价的上涨（这推高了当地企业的成本）。厄尔尼诺现象则构成了第三重压力，可能进一步推高利率。
The warning comes as the US Climate Prediction Center projects a 75% chance that the current El Niño could become a historic event, surpassing records dating back to 1950. Southeast Asian bonds are already under pressure from two global forces: higher US Treasury yields, which draw money toward the US, and rising oil prices, which push up local costs. El Niño acts as a third blow, threatening to force interest rates even higher.
上个季度，菲律宾10年期债券的收益率飙升了71个基点，达到7.62%，接近2018年以来的最高水平；泰国10年期债券的收益率也在逐渐接近2025年年初以来的最高水平。
Philippine 10-year yields jumped 71 basis points in the previous quarter to 7.62%, near the highest since 2018, while Thai 10-year yields are inching up toward the highest since early 2025.
回顾上一次厄尔尼诺现象的高峰期可以发现，当时亚洲大米价格的波动幅度较大（5年期月度价格指数处于第88%至第100%的区间）。
A look at the last El Niño peak highlights the potential upside for yields. From August 2023 to June 2024, an Asian rice price index hovered between the 88th and 100th percentile of five-year monthly prices.
这一时期恰逢该地区对食品价格最为敏感的市场中短期债券收益率上升。泰国的两年期债券收益率处于第85%至第100%的区间内，而菲律宾的两年期债券收益率则处于第75%至第97%的区间内。
This period coincided with elevated shorter-dated yields in the region’s most food-sensitive markets. Thai two-year yields held between the 85th and 100th percentiles and Philippine two-year yields traded between the 75th and 97th percentiles.
“自今年年中以来，‘厄尔尼诺’现象在全球宏观经济讨论中的提及频率越来越高，”阿伯丁投资（Aberdeen Investments）的新兴市场经济学家迈克尔·兰厄姆（Michael Langham）表示。他认为，随着通胀压力的重新出现，市场可能低估了印度尼西亚和菲律宾进一步加息的可能性，这对当地货币债券构成了风险。
“El Niño risks have been increasingly cropping up in our global macro discussions since mid-year,” said Michael Langham, emerging-markets economist at Aberdeen Investments. Markets are potentially underpricing further rate hikes in Indonesia and the Philippines as inflationary pressures return, posing a risk for local-currency bonds, he said.
政策制定者已经注意到了这一趋势。菲律宾中央银行（Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas）在8月底表示，他们已准备好根据包括“厄尔尼诺”现象在内的各种价格风险来加息。一位泰国官员也在9月初指出，“厄尔尼诺”将成为今年晚些时候推动通胀的主要因素之一。
Policymakers are already taking notice. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas signaled in late August that it stands ready to hike rates on price risks including from El Niño. A Thai official noted in early September that El Niño will be among the key drivers for inflation later this year.
对于东南亚地区的当地货币政府债券而言，“问题在于食品价格或电力价格的通胀是否能够持续到足以改变利率走势的程度，”T. Rowe Price公司负责责任投资研究的总监通盖·库诺鲁布韦（Tongai Kunorubwe）说道。
For Southeast Asian local-currency government bonds, “the question is whether food or electricity inflation becomes persistent enough to change the path of interest rates,” said Tongai Kunorubwe, director of research for responsible investing at T. Rowe Price.
“如果食品价格或电力价格的冲击持续时间比投资者预期的更长、影响范围也更广，那么对利率的预期可能会被严重低估，”他补充道。
“Expectations for interest rates could prove too low if a food or electricity price shock lasts longer or spreads more widely than investors anticipate,” he said.