美籍华人亿万富豪投资人段永平常被称为“中国的巴菲特”。在今年第三次公开增持中，他在行业深度调整之际将3万股上海上市的贵州茅台股票纳入投资组合。
Chinese-American billionaire investor Duan Yongping, often called China’s Warren Buffett, has added 30,000 shares of Shanghai-listed maker Kweichou Moutai to his portfolio in his third public stake increase this year amid a deep sector-wide adjustment.
长期以来，茅台的高估值在很大程度上依赖企业礼赠和社交礼赠需求。然而，行业观察人士表示，近年来监管趋严、企业支出更加谨慎以及持续推进的反腐行动，已令需求受到削弱。
Moutai’s premium valuation has long relied heavily on corporate and social gifting demand. Yet stricter supervision, more prudent corporate spending and ongoing anti-corruption efforts in recent years have dented demand, according to industry observers.
晨星高级股票分析师珍妮弗·宋表示：“我们认为，整个行业的需求仍然疲弱，但不同品类的表现有所差异。高端品牌——尤其是茅台——以及领先的大众品牌已显现出初步企稳迹象。”她补充称，其他大多数企业，尤其是次高端品牌，仍在艰难应对渠道去库存，尚未确认已经触底。
“We believe demand remains sluggish for the sector as a whole, but conditions vary by category,” said Jennifer Song, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. “Premium – especially Moutai – and leading mass-market brands are showing early signs of stabilisation.”Most other players, particularly sub-premium names, were still struggling with channel destocking and had yet to confirm a bottom, she added.
茅台股价曾一度高居中国大陆上市股票之首。周三，其股价微涨1.86%，报1258.62元。截至目前，该股年内已下跌约8.6%。
Once the most expensive mainland-listed stock, shares of Moutai edged up 1.86 per cent to 1258.62 yuan on Wednesday. So far this year, the stock has declined about 8.6 per cent.
晨星表示，受人口老龄化和人均饮酒率下降影响，中国市场的销售表现自2024年下半年以来持续恶化，该行业板块也因此落后于大盘。
Chinese sales have deteriorated since the second half of 2024, and the sector has lagged the broader market owing to an ageing population and lower per capita drinking rates, according to Morningstar.
周一，段永平在北京社交及交易平台雪球上发帖称，他买入了一些茅台股票。他发布了一张截图，显示其以每股1230.85元的价格买入了3万股，总投资3693万元（550万美元）。
On Monday, Duan posted on Xueqiu, a Beijing-based social and trading platform, that he had bought some Moutai shares. He showed a screenshot indicating he bought 30,000 shares at 1,230.85 yuan per share, for a total investment of 36.93 million yuan (US$5.5 million).
今年早些时候，段永平表示，投资茅台不太需要对宏观经济进行分析，因为其独特价值是“不可替代”的。他说，该品牌的官方应用程序抑制了假货和价格炒作，释放了消费需求。
Earlier this year, Duan said investing in Moutai required little macroeconomic analysis, as its unique value was “irreplaceable”. The brand’s official app had curbed counterfeiting and price speculation, unlocking consumer demand, he said.
“段一直强调的是长期逻辑，”宋表示。“消费者可能喝得少一些，但喝得更好，短期销售放缓并不会改变茅台的长期价值。这在很大程度上与我们的看法一致。”她补充说，受低基数推动，这家酒企下半年的业绩将好于上半年。
“Duan’s rationale has consistently been long-term,” Song said. “Consumers may drink less but better, and a short-term sales slowdown does not change Moutai’s long-term value. This is largely in line with our view.”The distiller’s second-half financial results would improve compared with the first half, helped by a low base, she added.
从中长期来看，该行业预计将形成零和格局，只有具备持久竞争优势的公司才能通过抢占市场份额成为长期赢家，她补充道。
Over the medium to long term, the sector was expected to become zero-sum, such that only companies with durable competitive advantages would emerge as long-term winners by taking market share, she added.
上半年，茅台实现销售额922.8亿元，同比增长1.3%；净利润则同比下降1.95%，至445.2亿元。
In the first six months, Moutai posted sales of 92.28 billion yuan, up 1.3 per cent year on year, while its net profit fell 1.95 per cent from a year earlier to 44.52 billion yuan.
“该行业可能逐步触底，上市酒企有望在低基数下实现盈利改善，”申港证券上周在一份报告中表示。朱文倩
“The sector may gradually bottom out, with listed liquor firms expected to see earnings improvement on a low base,” Shengang Securities said in a report last week. By Zhu Wenqian