美光科技周三晚间公布的财报远超预期，并表示随着其存储产品需求持续超过供应，2027财年将是另一个强劲年份。截至9月3日的2026财年第四季度，营收同比激增379%至542.3亿美元，高于LSEG汇编的510.7亿美元共识预期。调整后每股收益（EPS）增长1002%至33.42美元，超出31.61美元的预期。
Micron on Wednesday evening delivered a much better-than-expected quarter and indicated that its fiscal year 2027 will be another strong one as demand for its memory products continues to exceed supply. Revenue in the fiscal 2026 fourth quarter, which ended Sept. 3, rose 379% year-over-year to $54.23 billion, a beat versus the $51.07 billion consensus forecast, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased 1,002% to $33.42, beating expectations of $31.61, LSEG data showed.
盘后交易中，美光股价在窄幅区间波动，但在管理层结束财报电话会后收于持平附近。该股9月表现强劲，累计上涨约11%。今年以来涨幅约275%。不过，较6月25日121.3美元的历史收盘高点仍下跌12%。核心要点对美光而言，这是一个创纪录的年份。紧张的供给状况加上AI应用对存储的旺盛需求，推动其平均售价大幅上涨，从而带动营收、毛利率和每股收益飙升。
MU YTD mountain Micron YTD Shares traded in a tight range in after-hours trading, but settled around the flat line after management finished its post-earnings conference call. The stock had a good September, rallying roughly 11%. For the year, Micron is up roughly 275%. However, it is down 12% from its record close of $,1213 on June 25. Bottom line It was a record-setting year for Micron as tight supply conditions and surging demand for memory in AI applications led to healthy increases in its average selling prices, resulting in soaring revenue, gross margins, and EPS.
请记住，存储市场主要有两大产品。一是NAND闪存，属于存储型内存，如U盘。另一种是动态随机存取存储器，简称DRAM，属于工作内存，如电脑内存条。还有一种特殊的DRAM称为HBM（高带宽内存），是现代AI工作负载的关键使能技术。AI加速器负责支撑AI计算的数学运算，但它们依赖HBM来存储和供给数据。为了高效且大规模地部署AI，系统需要更高的内存带宽和更大的内存容量。由于AI系统对内存需求不断增长，DRAM和NAND行业需求已显著超过供应，没人真正知道两者何时能达到平衡。
Remember, there are two main products in the memory market. There is NAND, which is storage memory, like a flash drive. There is also dynamic random access memory, or DRAM for short, which is considered working memory, like the RAM in your computer. There's also a specialized form of DRAM called HBM, or high-bandwidth memory, which is the key enabling technology for modern AI workloads. While AI accelerators do the math that underpins AI computing, they rely on HBM to store and feed them data. For AI to be deployed efficiently and at scale, systems require higher memory bandwidth and greater memory capacity. Due to the growing memory needs of AI systems, DRAM and NAND industry demand has significantly exceeded supply, and no one truly knows when the two will find a balance.
尽管2026年内存和存储的供需状况已经非常紧张，但美光预计2027年和2028年日历年的状况将更加紧张，因为供应根本无法赶上需求。大约75%的美光2027年预期产量已被预订，客户已经在与公司洽谈2028年的分配事宜。"DRAM供需增长率之间的结构性差距导致供应持续紧张，需要增加洁净室以增强节点转换带来的供应增长并帮助缩小差距，" CEO Sanjay Mehrotra在公司的准备发言中表示。洁净室增加是指通过建设和安装更多设备来物理扩大制造产能。
As tight as memory and storage supply and demand conditions were in 2026, Micron expects conditions to be even tighter in calendar 2027 and 2028 because supply simply can't catch up to demand. Roughly 75% of Micron's expected output in 2027 is already spoken for, and customers are already speaking with the company on their allocations for 2028. "The structural gap between DRAM supply and demand growth rates is resulting in ongoing supply tightness, and cleanroom additions are required to augment node-transition supply growth and help narrow the gap," CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in the company's prepared remarks. Cleanroom additions refer to the physical expansion of manufacturing capacity by building and installing more equipment.
Jim Cramer最近参观了该公司位于爱达荷州博伊西总部附近正在建设的大型半导体制造基地之一，业界称之为晶圆厂。"即使有额外的行业DRAM洁净室空间规划，加上强劲的需求趋势包括客户新增的上调需求，我们仍无法预见供需何时会恢复平衡，" Mehrotra补充道。
Jim Cramer recently visited one of the company's massive semiconductor fabrication sites, or fabs as the industry calls them, which is under construction near headquarters in Boise, Idaho. "Even with additional industry DRAM cleanroom space plans, with robust demand trends including new upside requests from customers, we do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance," Mehrotra added.
在超级智能时代，内存需求发生了根本性变化，三大主要参与者——美国的美光、韩国的三星和SK海力士——的产品变得日益差异化。虽然我们仍应将内存视为一个周期性行业，即当需求被高估且供应赶上时价格见顶回落，但对见顶定价的担忧导致美光以极低的市盈率交易，约为预期每股收益的6倍。
Demand for memory has fundamentally changed in this superintelligence era, and products from the three main players, U.S.-based Micron, as well as South Korean companies Samsung and SK Hynix , have become increasingly differentiated. While we should still think of memory as a cyclical industry where prices peak and decline as demand is overestimated and supply catches up, fears of peak pricing are why Micron trades at an incredibly cheap price-to-earnings multiple of around 6 times forward EPS estimates.
这种持续的失衡正在推动每季度价格上涨，并导致客户争相抢购内存芯片。美光正在签署越来越多的战略客户协议（SCAs），以改变其商业模式，并为未来的收入和定价提供更大的可预见性。
This ongoing imbalance is driving price increases each quarter and causing customers to race to secure access to memory chips. Micron isg more and more strategic customer agreements, or SCAs, to change its business model and provide greater visibility into future revenue and pricing.
这些SCA的目标是摆脱内存市场“繁荣-萧条”的周期性特征，创造一个维持在较高水平、持续时间更长的周期，并形成更明确的价格区间。美光迄今已签署26份SCA，较上一季度的16份有所增加。通常这些协议预计从2026年持续至2030年底。然而，美光表示，更多客户希望在该日期之后继续锁定供应，公司正通过将协议延长一年至2031年来满足这些需求。
The goal of these SCAs is to move away from memory's boom-bust characterization and create a cycle that stays higher for longer, with more defined pricing bands. Micron has now signed up 26 SCAs to date, up from 16 last quarter. Typically, these agreements were supposed to last from calendar 2026 through the end of calendar 2030. However, Micron said more customers want to secure supply beyond that date, and the company is meeting those requests byg one-year extensions to 2031.
为履行这些客户协议，美光承诺增加资本支出，建设新晶圆厂并提升产能。当公司规划大规模产能扩张计划时，总是存在风险，因为可能因短缺和价格上涨而引发问题。在任何周期中，行业都会达到一个临界点，新增产能会引发过度建设的担忧，导致价格暴跌。然而，美光认为，SCA提供的营收可视性以及这些交易要求的现金存款，给予了他们持续投资以满足激增需求的信心。
To help meet these customer agreements, Micron is committed to increasing capital expenditures to build new fabs and boost production. There is always risk when a company plans major capacity expansion programs because of shortages and price increases. In any cycle, the industry reaches a point where adding new capacity stokes fear of overbuilding, which would cause prices to plummet. However, Micron believes the revenue visibility the SCAs offer, as well as the cash deposits required in these deals, give them confidence to keep investing to meet soaring demand.
在股票回购计划方面没有新消息，但我们仍认为年内晚些时候可能会宣布一项大规模回购计划。由于《芯片法案》资金协议的限制，美光被禁止回购股票（除抵消股票薪酬外）。这些限制将于12月放宽。据FactSet数据，仅本季度自由现金流达330亿美元，新财年预计将额外产生1280亿美元，美光有可能宣布的回购计划规模可与英伟达最近创下纪录的在原有850亿美元授权基础上追加1500亿美元的计划相媲美。
There was nothing new in terms of a share repurchase program, but we still think a big one could be announced later this year. Micron has been prohibited from buying back stock beyond offsetting stock-based compensation due to a CHIPS Act funding agreement. Those restrictions are set to ease in December. With free cash flow of $33 billion in this quarter alone and an additional $128 billion expected to be generated in the new fiscal year, according to FactSet, Micron could potentially announce a share repurchase program that could rival Nvidia's recent record-setting $150 billion increase to its previously authorized $85 billion program.
市场目前将美光的业绩超预期和上调指引视为支撑股价近期反弹的充分理由。美光财报发布后股价波动较大，我们将拭目以待周四早盘股价走向。
The market is currently treating Micron's beat and upside guidance as a good enough outcome to support the stock's recent rally. Micron can be volatile after earnings, so we'll wait and see where the chips fall Thursday morning.
但随着2027年和2028年的行业状况预计将比2026年更加紧张，美光的盈利应将继续增长，而大规模回购计划可能为股价提供进一步支撑。我们将目标价从1100美元上调至1200美元。我们也重申买入等同的1级评级，这与我们在9月3日最近一次加仓一致。持仓理由 美光应将继续受益于AI不断增长的存储需求，这正推动供应短缺和平均售价上涨。
But with industry conditions in 2027 and 2028 expected to be even tighter than in 2026, Micron's earnings should continue to grow, while a massive buyback program could provide further support for the stock. We are increasing our price target to $1,200 from $1,100. We are also reiterating our buy-equivalent 1 rating, which is consistent with our most recent addition to the position on Sept. 3. Why we own it Micron should continue to benefit from the growing memory demands of AI, which are driving supply shortages and higher average selling prices.
新签署的战略客户协议（SCA）应使盈利比以往存储周期更具持久性，而不断增长的自由现金流为未来的股票回购提供了巨大空间。竞争对手：三星、SK海力士 最近一次买入：2026年9月3日 建仓日期：2026年8月11日 展望 展望指引方面，美光预计2027财年第一季度营收将达615亿美元，上下浮动15亿美元。据LSEG数据，这强于570.2亿美元的市场共识预期。
Newly signed strategic customer agreements (SCAs) should make earnings more durable than in past memory cycles, while growing free cash flow provides significant capacity for future share buybacks. Competitors: Samsung, SK Hynix Last buy: Sept. 3, 2026 Initiation date: Aug, 11, 2026 Outlook Turning to the guide, Micron expects revenue in its fiscal 2027 first quarter to be $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion. That's stronger than the $57.02 billion consensus estimate, according to LSEG. Over the full year, the company anticipates sequential revenue growth each quarter. Gross margin in the current quarter is expected to be approximately 86.25%, which is a slight dip from the Q4 result of 87% and slightly below estimates of 86.31%, according to FactSet. While that may be a little disappointing, the dip is mostly tied to the company's decision to increase compensation for its employees.
全年来看，公司预计每个季度营收将实现环比增长。本季度毛利率预计约为86.25%，较Q4的87%略有下滑，也略低于FactSet统计的86.31%预期。虽然这可能略显失望，但下滑主要源于公司决定增加员工薪酬。这是一个重要的区别，因为若因平均售价走软导致毛利率下滑，那才更令人担忧。缓解对毛利率下滑的担忧，管理层表示认为财年Q1将是全年毛利率的底部。
That's an important distinction because a dip tied to softening average selling prices would be more worrisome. Easing any concerns around the gross margin decline, management said it believes fiscal Q1 will be the floor for gross margins for the year. Finally, off the strong revenue forecast, adjusted EPS is expected to be $38.15, plus or minus $1, which is above the consensus estimate of $35.40, according to LSEG. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long MU. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As ar to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
最后，基于强劲的营收预期，调整后EPS预计为38.15美元，上下浮动1美元，高于LSEG统计的35.40美元共识预期。（吉姆·克雷默慈善信托持有MU多头头寸。）
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