—— 这是CNBC为中国中央电视台（CCTV）制作的2026年10月1日财经新闻报道脚本。
– This is the script of CNBC's financial news report for China's CCTV on October 01, 2026.
中东原油出口的反弹在一定程度上缓解了市场对供应的担忧，但这种复苏尚未完全体现在油价中。
A rebound in Middle East crude exports has provided some relief to market supply concerns, though this recovery has not been fully reflected in oil prices.
数据显示，作为关键国际定价基准的伦敦布伦特原油期货继续徘徊在每桶100美元左右。尽管较美伊冲突期间的高点有所回落，但价格仍明显高于夏季平均水平。
Data indicates that London Brent crude futures, a key international pricing benchmark, continue to hover around 100 dollars per barrel. While down from highs seen during the US Iran conflict, prices remain noticeably elevated above summer averages.
行业分析师指出，恢复霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输高度依赖替代措施，包括美国海军护航、通过非海峡港口绕行，以及利用小型油轮中转，导致整体供应链依然脆弱。同时，海峡内的安全形势远未恢复正常，地缘政治风险溢价继续支撑着高油价。
Industry analysts note that restoring oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz relies heavily on alternative measures including US naval escorts, routing through non strait ports, and relaying shipments via smaller tankers, leaving the overall supply chain fragile. At the same time, security conditions within the strait remain far from normal, with geopolitical risk premiums continuing to underpin high oil prices.
HELIMA CROFT RBC资本市场董事总经理兼全球大宗商品策略主管 “这成本极高，且需要美国做出巨大的军事承诺。他们认为，这种拼凑的船对船转运和军事护航安排，无法替代霍尔木兹海峡的畅通无阻。”
HELIMA CROFT Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy RBC Capital Markets "It's very expensive, and it's a huge U.S. military commitment. They do not think it is a substitute having this patchwork arrangement ship to ship transfers and military escorts for having Hormuz open."
更为关键的是，原油供应的反弹并未按比例转化为成品油供应。摩根大通最新数据显示，中东成品油出口目前约为每天300万桶，仅为冲突前水平的58%左右。加上俄乌冲突导致俄罗斯炼厂受损，全球柴油、航空煤油等成品油供应短缺持续存在。成品油供应紧张及价格上涨自然推高了整个航空业的运营成本。
More critically, the rebound in crude supply has not translated proportionally into refined product supply. Latest data from JPMorgan shows Middle East refined product exports currently standing at roughly 3 million barrels per day, or about 58% of pre conflict levels. Compounded by damage to Russian refineries stemming from the Russia Ukraine conflict, global supply deficits for refined fuels like diesel and jet fuel persist. Tight supply and rising prices for refined products are naturally driving up operational expenses across the aviation sector.
根据国际航空运输协会（IATA）的航空燃油价格监测数据，截至9月25日当周，航空煤油平均价格达到每桶约185美元，较6月底的120美元上涨约54%。
According to jet fuel price monitoring data from the International Air Transport Association, or IATA, average jet fuel prices reached roughly 185 dollars per barrel for the week ending September 25th, up about 54% from 120 dollars at the end of June.
IATA此前预测，今年燃油成本将占航空公司运营开支的近三分之一，高于去年的约四分之一。毫不意外，这种成本压力正直接传导至机票价格。
IATA previously projected that fuel costs would account for nearly one third of airline operating expenses this year, up from roughly one quarter last year. Unsurprisingly, this cost pressure on airlines is flowing directly into airfares.
在线旅游平台Hopper在一份报告中指出，美国今年假日季的机票价格已飙升至十年来的高位。
Online travel platform Hopper noted in a report that US holiday season airfares for the end of the year have surged to decade highs.
分析人士指出，航空公司通常会在燃油价格飙升前提前售出一部分机票。以美国联合航空为例，今年最后三个月航班的座位中，约有35%已提前售出。由于航空公司无法对现有订单追溯涨价，只能通过提高后续航班票价和增加附加费，逐步消化这些成本。因此，即便未来航空煤油价格回落，旅客仍可能继续支付高位票价，以覆盖累积的燃油成本压力。
Analysts point out that airlines typically sell a portion of tickets well before fuel price spikes occur. Taking United Airlines as an example, roughly 35% of seats for flights in the final three months of the year were sold in advance. Because airlines cannot retroactively raise prices on existing bookings, they must absorb these costs gradually by hiking prices on subsequent flights and expanding ancillary fees. Consequently, even if jet fuel prices soften down the road, travelers may continue paying elevated fares to cover accumulated fuel cost pressures.