日元兑美元走弱，此前日本央行公布的9月份货币政策会议审议意见摘要令那些期待政策制定者发出本月可能再度加息信号的投资者感到失望。
The yen weakened against the dollar after a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s September meeting disappointed investors looking for signs that policymakers may be preparing for another move this month.
日本货币对美元汇率一度下跌0.5%至158.21，成为G10货币中表现最差的币种。
Japan’s currency dropped as much as 0.5% to 158.21 against the dollar and was the worst performer among its Group-of-10 peers.“While there were many hawkish opinions, they were not hawkish enough to strengthen expectations for a consecutive rate hike,” said Takuya Kanda, senior FX analyst at Gaitame.com Research Institute.
“虽然有许多偏鹰派的意见，但它们的鹰派程度还不足以增强对连续加息的预期，” Gaitame.com综合研究所高级外汇分析师神田卓也表示。“如果美元兑日元升破158，干预担忧可能会限制美元的上涨空间。”
“If dollar-yen rises above 158, intervention concerns are likely to cap the dollar’s upside.”
在上次会议（当时当局将政策利率上调至1995年以来的最高水平）的意见摘要中，日本央行确认其政策重心已转向防止通胀超过目标。在其他言论中，委员们指出中性利率可能会偏离预估水平上方、许多企业认为迄今为止加息的影响有限，并且希望在早期阶段将基准利率提高。
The BOJ affirmed that its policy focus has shifted to preventing inflation from overshooting its target, in the summary from its last meeting when authorities raised the policy rate to the highest since 1995. Among other comments, members noted that the neutral rate could deviate above the estimate, many firms see only limited impact of hikes taken so far and it’s desirable to bring the benchmark rate higher at an early stage.
今天上午，市场互换定价对10月30日前加息的预期从昨天的逾30%回落至接近20%。市场预计12月的会议将完全消化加息预期。
Swaps market pricing for a rate hike by Oct. 30 slipped to just under 20% this morning from more than 30% at one point yesterday. A move is fully priced in by the December gathering.
特朗普公布2000亿美元韩国对美投资；首尔对阿拉斯加天然气管道项目态度留有余地与此同时，日本国债收益率上升，特别是长期国债收益率，这表明市场担心央行在遏制通胀方面行动不够迅速。
Trump unveils $200 billion South Korean investment in US; Seoul hedges on Alaska pipelineMeanwhile, yields on Japanese government bonds rose, notably on longer tenors, suggesting market concern that the central bank may not be moving fast enough to contain inflation.
据报道，在9月份会议之后的纽约交易时段，由于日元因日本央行未就未来加息步伐提供更强有力的指引而走弱，金融当局实施了汇率询价。
Financial authorities reportedly conducted a rate check during New York trading hours after the September meeting as the yen weakened on disappointment that the BOJ didn’t offer stronger guidance on the pace of future interest rate hikes.
根据日本财务省周三公布的数据，在最近的一个月（主要涵盖9月份）里，日本基本上没有参与外汇市场的交易。在美国，美联储的政策制定者上个月一致投票决定加息，并表示支持今年再加息一次、明年再加息一次。
Japan stayed out of foreign exchange markets in the latest monthly period covering most of September, finance ministry figures released Wednesday showed. In the US, Federal Reserve policymakers voted unanimously to raise interest rates last month and signalled support for an additional hike this year and one next year.“There is a high bar for the BOJ to meet in terms of hawkishness,” said Samara Hammoud, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“对于日本央行（BOJ）来说，要采取更为鹰派的政策立场，其难度相当高，”澳大利亚联邦银行的策略师萨玛拉·哈穆德（Samara Hammoud）表示。“由于日本央行最近在政策上出现了分歧，而美联储的立场更为鹰派，因此除非日本央行能提供更明确的未来货币政策指引，否则市场对于其加息的预期不太可能对日元产生积极影响。”
“The BOJ’s recent split decision and a more hawkish Fed mean that BOJ rate hike expectations are unlikely to offer much support to the yen unless the BOJ provides more explicit forward guidance.”
日本央行周四发布的季度企业调查（Tankan调查）还显示，日本大型制造业企业的信心已升至八年多来的最高水平。据彭博经济社（Bloomberg Economics）的日本高级经济学家木村太郎（Taro Kimura）称，该调查结果“几乎没有显示出通胀压力加剧的迹象”；他认为，“这些数据降低了日本央行在10月份连续加息的可能性。”
The BOJ’s quarterly Tankan business survey also showed on Thursday that confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers rose to the highest level in more than eight years. It also showed “little sign of intensifying inflation pressure,” according to Taro Kimura, senior Japan economist at Bloomberg Economics. “The Tankan results lower the probability of a back-to-back increase in October,” he said.