奥斯陆，10月1日——专家们表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普因与伊朗开战，今年不会获得诺贝尔和平奖；不过，他的影响力仍会影响到负责评选该奖项的机构。
OSLO, Oct 1 - US President Donald Trump will not win this year's Nobel Peace Prize as he wages war with Iran, but his influence will still be felt by the awarding body that picks the laureate, according to experts.
去年的诺贝尔和平奖授予了委内瑞拉的玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多，这一决定在诺贝尔奖125年的历史上显得非常特殊——因为此前特朗普曾多次游说希望获得该奖项。几周后，马查多将她的诺贝尔奖章赠给了特朗普，以此争取外界对她为推动委内瑞拉民主化所做努力的支持。
Last year's award, to Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado, was unique in the prize's 125-year history, coming amid repeated lobbying by Trump to get the award. Weeks later, Machado gave her gold Nobel medal to Trump, in a bid to win support for her efforts for a democratic Venezuela. This year, the five-strong body will be mindful of picking someone who can withstand pressure from Trump, according to Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
根据奥斯陆和平研究所代理所长哈康·耶洛乌（Haakon Gjerloew）的说法，今年的评选委员会会格外谨慎，希望选出能够抵御特朗普压力的候选人。
"I think last year's events around the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards, will affect some of the considerations that they make," he told Reuters.
“我认为去年围绕诺贝尔和平奖发生的那些事件，尤其是马查多将奖章赠给特朗普的事情，会影响委员会的决策过程，”他告诉路透社。“委员会可能会担心：如果将奖项授予某人，是否会让自己受到特朗普的压力……我认为委员会会权衡这一决定带来的利弊。”专家们认为，获奖者可能是教皇利奥（Pope Leo）、国际刑事法院（International Criminal Court）、国际法院（International Court of Justice），或是联合国巴勒斯坦被占领土问题特别报告员弗朗切斯卡·阿尔巴内塞（Francesca Albanese）。颁奖结果将于10月9日公布。
"One worry the committee might have is whether awarding it to someone could put them under pressure from Donald Trump ... I think the committee will consider whether the award does more harm than good." That could mean an award to Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice or Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, experts say. The announcement is on October 9. Leo, the first US-born pope, has said he would continue to speak out against war, after the president called him "weak" for criticising the US conflict with Iran. The Pope's encyclical on AI, his advocacy for dialogue and the peaceful resolution of conflicts, his calls for respect for migrants and his humanitarian work could justify a prize. "The Pope stands (for) more than just as a religious figure.
作为首位在美国出生的教皇，利奥曾表示会继续公开反对战争；此前特朗普曾因他批评美国与伊朗的冲突而称他为“软弱”。
He has emerged as a leading thought leader," Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Reuters. Italy's Albanese, meanwhile, has been under fire from the US and Israel for her criticism of Israel's conduct of its war against Hamas in Gaza and the occupation of the West Bank.
教皇关于人工智能的通谕、他对对话与和平解决冲突的倡导、他对移民的尊重以及他所开展的人道主义工作，都足以使他成为诺贝尔和平奖的合适人选。
SAFE CHOICE INSTEAD? To be sure, last year's shock events could have the opposite effect on the committee: go for a safe, uncontroversial choice less likely to antagonise Trump, who blamed Norway, where the award is decided, for not giving him the accolade last time.
“教皇不仅仅是一个宗教领袖，他还是一位重要的思想领袖，”斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所所长卡里姆·哈加格（Karim Haggag）对路透社说道。
That could mean recognising Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a Sudanese network of community groups providing aid during the civil war, or non-governmental group Save the Children for helping children in conflicts.
意大利总理阿尔巴内塞则因批评以色列在加沙对哈马斯发动战争以及占领约旦河西岸，遭到美国和以色列的抨击。还是选择更稳妥的人选？
But the committee is also under scrutiny to address Trump's challenges to the international order the committee cherishes, said Oeivind Stenersen, a historian who has written about the Nobel Peace Prize. "They have a certain pressure ... to be tough against Trump," he told Reuters.
的确，去年发生的冲击性事件可能对委员会产生相反的影响：委员会或许会选择一个稳妥、没有争议且不太可能激怒特朗普的人选。上一次颁奖时，特朗普曾责怪颁奖所在地挪威没有把奖授予他。
"In this serious international situation, this year calls for a Peace Prize in defence of liberal democracy, international law and human rights." This could mean honouring the ICC at a time when Washington is preparing sweeping sanctions against the global tribunal, according to sources, while an award to the ICJ would support respecting the sovereignty of nation-states and resolving disputes peacefully. Trump has reportedly been nominated by the leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, but his chances were "quite low", according to Gjerloew.
这可能意味着表彰苏丹的“紧急响应室”——这是一个由社区团体组成、在内战期间提供援助的苏丹网络；也可能是表彰非政府组织“救助儿童会”，以肯定其在冲突地区救助儿童的工作。
Trump's pressure on the Norwegian Nobel Committee has stunned many, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, a Filipino and American journalist, who said she watched last year with "horror". "Bullies don't run the world," she told Reuters during a visit to Oslo in September.
不过，研究诺贝尔和平奖的历史学家厄伊文德·斯滕纳森表示，委员会也面临压力，需要回应特朗普对其所珍
"There are standards we live by. Might doesn't make it right." REUTERS