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全球债券抛售加剧,英国长期借贷成本突破6%Global bond sell-off intensifies, as UK long-term borrowing costs pass 6%

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全球债券市场的动荡在周四进一步加剧,市场担忧美国的财政赤字已达到难以持续的水平,这导致英国的长期借贷成本升至28年来的新高。

The turmoil in global bond markets intensified on Thursday amid fears that the US deficit is reaching unsustainable levels, helping drive UK long-term borrowing costs to a 28-year high.

持续高企的油价引发了新一轮通胀的威胁,令投资者感到恐慌;他们认为各国央行将在未来几个月内被迫加息,以防止物价上涨变得难以控制。

The threat of a renewed round of inflation from the persistently high cost of oil has spooked investors, who believe central banks will be forced to raise rates in the coming months to prevent price increases from becoming embedded.

在交易活跃的早晨,英国30年期债券的收益率(作为利率的指标)首次升至6%,这是自1998年以来的最高水平。

In a morning of hectic trading, the yield, which is a proxy for the interest rate, hit 6% on Britain’s 30-year bonds for the first time since 1998.

英国5年期和10年期债券的收益率也同步上升,进一步推高了政府的借贷成本,给财政大臣约翰·希利带来了巨大压力(他的预算报告将于本月晚些时候发布)。

The yield on five- and 10-year UK bonds also rose, driving up the government’s borrowing costs and adding to the pressure on the chancellor, John Healey, before the budget later this month.

股市投资者也大量抛售股票,导致伦敦股市在开盘后下跌了1.7%;欧洲各股市也受到影响,德国的DAX指数和法国的CAC 40指数均下跌了1.1%。

Stock market investors also sold heavily, knocking 1.7% off the London stock market in early trading. Bourses in Europe were also hit, with Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC 40 falling by 1.1%.

全球范围内的债券抛售现象主要是由人们对高通胀的担忧所驱动的——中东地区的冲突持续限制了该地区的石油供应。

The bond sell-off around the world is being driven by fears of high inflation, as the Middle East conflict continues to restrict oil supplies from the region.

周三,美国10年期国债的收益率达到了2002年以来的最高水平;日本的10年期国债收益率则接近上个月创下的30年高点。

On Wednesday US 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002, while Japan’s 10-year yield rose towards the 30-year high set last month.

尽管昨日发布的通胀数据低于预期(这本应缓解投资者对美联储进一步加息的担忧),但美国国债价格仍出现下跌。

US bonds weakened despite inflation data yesterday coming in lower than expected, which was expected to calm calm investors’ nerves about the prospect of further increases in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve.

交易者们仍对美联储会继续加息以应对通胀保持警惕,主要原因是美国经济的强劲表现以及工人要求提高工资的压力。

Traders remain anxious that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, mainly in response to the strength of the economy and the prospect of workers bidding up their wages.

杰富里(Jefferies)的经济学家莫希特·库马尔(Mohit Kumar)表示,市场越来越担心政府为弥补财政赤字而发行的债务规模,以及通胀问题。

Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, said there was growing concern at the amount of debt being issued to fund government deficits, as well as inflation concerns.

“通胀、财政赤字和债券发行方面的担忧仍在持续压制债券市场,”他说。

“Inflation, deficit and issuance concerns continue to weigh on the bond market,” he said.

“与此同时,投资者不愿在局势出现一定程度的稳定之前入场,市场上甚至出现了买方罢买。对冲基金在最新一轮抛售中遭受打击,没有足够的风险偏好来承接跌势、抑制行情下行。真正的大资金或许有足够的风险偏好,但仍会等到局势稳定后才会入场。”投资与交易平台IG首席技术分析师阿克塞尔·鲁道夫表示:“最新数据虽然降低了市场对美联储10月加息的预期,但投资者仍保持警惕,担心持续的通胀和更高的油价可能使利率在更长时间内维持高位。

“There is also a buyers’ strike as investors do not want to step in till we get some form of stability. Hedge funds have suffered in the latest round of sell-off and do not have the risk appetite to fade the move. Real money, potentially has the risk appetite, but won’t step in till we get some stability.”Axel Rudolph, the chief technical analyst at the investing and trading platform IG, said: “While the latest data has reduced expectations of an October Fed rate hike, investors remain wary that persistent inflation and higher oil prices could keep rates elevated for longer.

“这种谨慎情绪正在推高美元,使其升至三个月高点,而12月加息的可能性则继续令债券市场承压。”

“The dollar is benefiting from that caution, climbing to a three-month high, while the prospect of a December rate increase keeps pressure on bond markets.”