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日本为何将目光投向乌克兰前线以改革自身防御体系Why Japan is looking to Ukraine’s front lines to overhaul its defences

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日本正越来越多地借鉴乌克兰在与俄罗斯的战争中积累的经验,将其作为获取军事技术情报的宝贵来源,这些技术有望提升日本的防御和进攻能力。

Japan is increasingly tapping into Ukraine’s war experience against Russia as a valuable source of intelligence on military technologies that could strengthen its defensive and offensive capabilities.

分析人士指出,本周日本自民党高级议员、前防卫大臣小野寺五郎访问基辅,正是这一动向的体现;这一举动发生在东京日益担忧地区安全局势的背景下。

A visit to Kyiv this week by senior ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker and former Japanese defence minister Itsunori Onodera demonstrates this interest, analysts say, against the backdrop of Tokyo’s mounting regional security concerns.

据乌克兰外交部声明,小野寺五郎于周三抵达基辅,会见了包括外交部长安德里·西比哈在内的当地官员。西比哈表示:“乌克兰愿意与日本开展互利合作,利用我们的经验和能力,共同探讨如何加强两国的安全。”

Onodera arrived in the Ukrainian capital on Wednesday to meet local officials, including Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “Ukraine is ready to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Japan, drawing on our experience and capabilities, and to identify areas in which our countries can strengthen each other’s security,” Sybiha said.

除了双边安全合作外,双方还一致认为有必要加大对莫斯科的压力,特别是要严厉打击任何规避制裁的行为。

Beyond bilateral security cooperation, both sides agreed on the need to step up pressure on Moscow, including cracking down on sanctions evasion.

《读卖新闻》周日报道称,小野寺五郎及其率领的日本议员代表团此行的目的还包括考察战场上迅速发展的无人机技术,以及评估俄罗斯与朝鲜之间的军事合作程度。

The trip by Onodera and a delegation of Japanese lawmakers was aimed at examining rapidly evolving drone technologies on the battlefield and assessing the extent of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, according to a report by the Yomiuri newspaper on Sunday.

日本战略研究论坛(Japan Forum for Strategic Studies)的高级研究员格兰特·纽沙姆(Grant Newsham)指出,乌克兰在无人机等军事技术方面的经验对日本具有“极高的参考价值”。他补充说:“小野寺的访问充分体现了日本对乌克兰问题的重视程度”,尤其对乌克兰在导弹防御系统方面的实战经验表现出浓厚兴趣。

The delegation’s findings will feed into Tokyo’s efforts to strengthen Japan’s defence capabilities ahead of planned revisions to the country’s three key security documents – the National Security Strategy, the National Defence Strategy, and the Defence Buildup Programme – with formal updates expected by the end of the year. Grant Newsham, a senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, said Ukraine’s experience was “very relevant” to Japan, particularly in terms of drones and unmanned aerial vehicles. “Onodera’s visit is just an indication of how seriously Japan takes Ukraine,” Newsham said, adding that Tokyo was particularly interested in Kyiv’s combat-tested missile defences.

尽管日本目前主要关注监控和防御技术,但纽沙姆表示,日本也对攻击型无人机表现出兴趣。

Although its current focus was mainly on surveillance and defence, Japan had also shown an interest in attack drones, Newsham said.

“无人机和其他无人驾驶装备将成为日本国防体系的重要组成部分,”他说,并指出在西方国家中,乌克兰在实战经验方面最为丰富。

“Drones and other unmanned vehicles are going to be an important part of Japan’s defence,” he said, further noting that Ukraine had the most extensive real-world battlefield experience among Western nations.

纽沙姆还提到,东京对台湾局势保持警惕,尤其是担心日本自身可能遭到攻击。

Newsham said that Tokyo was also wary of a Taiwan contingency, especially if Japan itself “comes under attack”.

北京认为台湾是中国领土的一部分,必要时会通过武力实现统一;包括美国和日本在内的大多数国家都不承认台湾是一个独立的国家,但反对任何试图通过武力夺取台湾的行为。

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but oppose any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force.

除了通过外部渠道获取技术外,日本还在与乌克兰的无人机制造商合作。今年3月,日本无人机制造商Terra Drone收购了两家乌克兰无人机初创公司(Amazing Drones和WinnyLab)的多数股份,共同研发用于战斗的拦截无人机。

In addition to learning from afar, Japan was also cooperating with Ukrainian drone developers, Newsham said. In March, Japanese drone maker Terra Drone acquired majority stakes in two Ukrainian drone start-ups, Amazing Drones and WinnyLab, to co-develop combat interceptor drones.

近年来,俄罗斯与朝鲜的军事关系日益密切——根据2024年6月签署的正式互防条约,朝鲜向俄罗斯提供军火和部队,以换取俄罗斯的军事技术和经济援助。

Military ties between Russia and North Korea have grown in recent years, driven by Pyongyang exchanging munitions and troops for Russian military technology and economic aid under a formal mutual defence treaty signed in June 2024.

纽沙姆指出,朝鲜的军事能力在过去五年中大幅提升,尤其是在海军、导弹、网络战和电子战领域。

Newsham said that North Korea’s military capabilities had improved considerably over the last five years, particularly in naval, missile, cyber and electronic warfare.

“这本身就对日本构成了威胁,”他说,并警告称莫斯科与平壤之间可能进行的协同军事行动会令日本和美国的防务规划者感到担忧。

“That alone is an increased threat to Japan,” he said, warning that the prospect of coordinated military operations between Moscow and Pyongyang posed real concerns for Japanese and US defence planners.

为此,东京和华盛顿需要增强自身的军事实力,包括储备远程精确打击武器、导弹系统以及改进监控网络。

This would require Tokyo and Washington to amass more combat power and stockpiles, including long-range precision strike weapons, missile systems and improved surveillance networks, Newsham added.

“如果能与韩国建立合作关系,将对日本和美国的军事力量产生显著的增强效果,”纽沙姆补充道。

“The ability to operate with a cooperative South Korea would be a major force-multiplier for Japanese and US forces,” he added.

庆应义塾大学庆应战略中心副主任鹤冈路人表示,观察乌克兰如何应对无人机和导弹袭击,对于日本制定新的战争准则至关重要。

Michito Tsuruoka, deputy director of Keio University’s Keio Centre for Strategy, said seeing how Ukraine countered drone and missile attacks was vital as Japan looked to establish new doctrines of warfare.

“新战争方式中最关键的要素之一,是需要降低应对攻击型无人机的成本,”鹤冈说。“用昂贵的防空导弹去拦截廉价无人机,成本太高,因此是不可持续的。”乌克兰官员和军事专家指出,使用美国制造的“爱国者”等昂贵的地对空导弹系统来对抗廉价的自杀式无人机在经济上是不可持续的,因为这样做会迅速耗尽至关重要的战略储备。

“One of the most significant elements of the new way of warfare is the need to decrease the cost of addressing attack drones,” Tsuruoka said. “It is too costly and therefore not sustainable for us to intercept cheap drones with expensive air defence missiles.”Using costly surface-to-air missile systems like the US-made Patriot to counter cheap kamikaze drones is economically unsustainable, Ukrainian officials and military experts have said, as doing so rapidly drains vital strategic reserves.

为了纠正这种失衡,基辅转向了本土化的低成本解决方案,包括以传统导弹一小部分的成本大规模生产拦截无人机,并测试高速拦截变体。

To correct this imbalance, Kyiv has turned to localised, low-cost solutions, including mass-producing interceptor drones at a fraction of the cost of traditional missiles and testing high-speed interceptor variants.

“乌克兰正在引领让防空系统变得更经济、从而更具可持续性的进程,”鹤冈指出。

“Ukraine is leading the process of making air defence more affordable and thereby more sustainable,” Tsuruoka noted.

大阪圣安德鲁大学国际政治与国家安全教授松村昌广表示,作为两度担任防卫大臣的前官员,小野寺五典对武器采购政策的细节非常精通。

Masahiro Matsumura, a professor of international politics and national security at St. Andrew’s University in Osaka, said that as a two-time former minister of defence, Onodera was well-versed in the details of weapons procurement policy.

“他强烈支持无人机采购,”松村在谈到小野寺推动将先进无人机技术纳入国防政策时说道。

“He strongly endorses drone procurement,” Matsumura said, referring to Onodera’s push to integrate advanced drone technology into national defence policy.

今年6月,小野寺对乌克兰无人机制造商与日本防务公司建立合作的努力表示欢迎,称东京迫切需要“真正展现出有效威力”的装备。

In June, Onodera welcomed efforts by Ukrainian drone manufacturers to partner with Japanese defence firms, saying Tokyo urgently needed equipment “that is actually demonstrating effective power”.

他还曾在1月率领议会代表团访问以色列,考察其无人机和导弹防御网络,并当时指出,此类技术对于制定日本未来的安全战略至关重要。

He also led a parliamentary delegation to Israel in January to inspect its drone and missile defence networks, noting at the time that such technology would be critical for formulating Japan’s future security strategy.

自俄罗斯于2022年2月对乌克兰发动全面入侵以来,日本已成为基辅在亚洲最重要的财政和人道主义支持者之一,承诺提供的援助超过200亿美元。玛丽亚·萧

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Japan has become one of Kyiv’s most important financial and humanitarian supporters in Asia, providing aid commitments exceeding US$20 billion. By Maria Siow