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人工智能之雨倾盆而下,且永不停歇!It's raining AI, and won't stop!

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来自东京的问候。这里落叶纷飞,细雨连绵。截至9月底,东京经历了连续35天的降水,创下了自1886年有记录以来的最长连雨纪录。雨势时而倾盆,时而连绵不断,全月共遭遇了三次台风。首都地区的降水量超过25英寸(约635毫米),日照时间不足50小时。我喜欢雨,我来自英国曼彻斯特附近,那里常被戏称为阴雨连绵的忧郁之城。但东京的雨势显然更胜一筹。

Hello from Tokyo, where the leaves are falling, as is the rain. There were 35 consecutive days of precipitation up to the end of September, the longest wet streak since records began in 1886. It has been drenching, torrential and day-long at times, with the month seeing three typhoons. More than 25 inches, or 635 millimeters, of precipitation fell on the capital, leaving it with fewer than 50 hours of sunshine. I like rain, and come from near Manchester in England, where the tired joke is that it is a gloomy city where it is always raining. Tokyo has it beat.

过去三周通讯暂停,并非因为这里的洪水或不得不整日撑伞。这段时间正值人员交替,原科技编辑凯蒂·克里尔(Katey Creel)已离职,前往华盛顿特区担任《日经亚洲》的记者,而我已于10月1日起接替她的职位,在总部开展工作。

Flooding here and being unable to come out from under an umbrella are not the reasons for the newsletter's hiatus over the past three weeks. There has been a transition taking place, with Katey Creel departing as Tech Editor to report for Nikkei Asia from Washington D.C., while I started from Oct. 1 as her replacement at headquarters.

关于我的个人背景和资历,我于近一年前从香港移居至此,加入《日经亚洲》工作。在此之前,我曾担任伦敦《金融时报》的科技编辑,在旧金山担任过九年的科技记者,并曾撰写过#techFT通讯。

The brief personal background and relevant qualifications are that I moved from Hong Kong nearly a year ago to work at Nikkei Asia and was previously a tech editor for the Financial Times in London, a tech correspondent for nine years in San Francisco, and authored the #techFT newsletter.

在这期通讯发布期间,科技领域发生了许多重要事件,主要集中在人工智能(AI)领域。那位来自 Anthropic 公司的研究员辞职了,他声称人工智能可能会在本十年末导致人类灭绝;这一言论引发了广泛讨论,促使他的上司 Dario Amodei 撰写了一篇长文,建议放缓人工智能技术的发展速度。不过,只有 SpaceX 的埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)和 OpenAI 的萨姆·阿尔特曼(Sam Altman)对这一观点表示支持。

A lot of tech news has been happening while this newsletter has been away, mainly of the AI variety. The Anthropic researcher who quit his job, saying artificial intelligence could kill us all by the end of the decade, triggered a reaction that led his boss, Dario Amodei, to pen a long essay suggesting a slowing down of frontier development, with rare support coming from SpaceX's Elon Musk and OpenAI's Sam Altman. It culminated in tech chiefs attending a White House summit this week where President Donald Trump played down the dangers of "super intelligence" and agreement was reached on self-regulation, which Musk said meant AI groups would be "generally grading each other's homework."

本周,科技行业的高管们参加了白宫举行的峰会,唐纳德·特朗普总统淡化了“超级智能”带来的潜在危险,并各方就人工智能行业的自我监管问题达成了共识。根据马斯克的说法,这意味着各人工智能公司之间将需要互相监督、互相评估彼此的技术进展。

So, model releases continued apace in September, investments in data centers and their financing were a hot topic and a groundswell of opposition to the infrastructure buildout grew.

九月份,新的 AI 模型仍在持续发布;数据中心的投资及其融资问题成为业界的热门话题;同时,人们对人工智能基础设施建设也日益感到担忧(尤其是担心人工智能可能被用于恶意目的,例如黑客攻击澳大利亚的医疗系统)。此外,关于 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 公司的 IPO 计划也引发了大量猜测。

There were worrying rogue actions by AI such as the hacking of Australia's health service and much speculation about the planned IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic. I have to admit I've been slow to pick up on using OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, with both companies geofencing their products from users in Hong Kong.

我必须承认,我在使用 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 和 Anthropic 的 Claude 这两款 AI 工具方面反应较慢——因为这两家公司都限制了这些产品在香港用户的使用。不过,像许多企业用户一样,我后来开始使用谷歌的 Gemini(可通过《金融时报》访问)和微软的 Copilot(由《日经新闻》提供)。我的个人谷歌账户如今成了一个“信息宝库”——过去 30 年里我下载或扫描的所有银行对账单、健康记录、纳税文件、工资单等资料都被 Gemini 分析利用,从而为我提供了关于个人财务状况和健康状况的全面信息,同时 Gemini 也会给出相应的建议。

Instead, like many in the enterprise, I came to appreciate Google's Gemini, accessible through the FT, and Microsoft's Copilot, provided by Nikkei. My personal Google account has become a treasure trove of personal information that is suddenly much more accessible and relevant. All the bank statements, health records, tax filings, wage slips and other documents I dutifully and nerdily downloaded or scanned over 30 years and backed up to Google Drive are now being mined by Gemini to give me a complete picture of my financial and physical health, with suggestions on what I need to do.

我认为以谷歌、微软和Meta为首的科技界“元老”在这方面比OpenAI和Anthropic拥有显著优势。我们已经通过这些平台进行商务往来和社交多年,因此它们对我们了如指掌,并且正在将人工智能整合到我们已经熟悉并每天使用的产品中。

I think tech's OGs (original gangsters) led by Google, Microsoft and Meta have a significant advantage over OpenAI and Anthropic in this aspect. We already have years of doing business and socializing through them, so they know so much about us and are integrating AI into products we are already familiar with and use every day.

我很期待Meta的Muse在日本推出时进行试用。这款人工智能代理在美国正受到广泛关注,我对马克·扎克伯格在上个月的开发者大会上发布的Charm个人设备很感兴趣。我认为其设计很大程度上借鉴了万代(Bandai)的拓麻歌子(Tamagotchi),因此这种钥匙扣挂件应该会在这里流行起来,尤其是考虑到全球Z世代正热衷于拥抱日本文化及其时尚配饰。只要是活人,AI公司就招!

I am looking forward to trying Meta's Muse when it rolls out in Japan. The AI agent is gaining a lot of traction in the U.S., and I was intrigued by the Charm personal device Mark Zuckerberg unveiled at its developer conference last month. I think the design owes a lot to Bandai's Tamagotchi, so the keyring attachment ought to catch on here, and with the GenZers around the world eagerly embracing Japanese culture and its fashion accessories. If they're breathing, AI hires them!

台湾的年轻人完全不用担心找不到AI相关的工作来支付他们购买“拓麻歌子式”Charm的费用。

The youth of Taiwan would have no problem getting a job in AI to pay for their Tamagotchi-like Charms.

郑婷方(Cheng Ting-Fang)和李莉(Lauly Li)为《日经亚洲》撰文报道了人才短缺如何成为该行业最大的瓶颈。

Cheng Ting-Fang Lauly Li reported for Nikkei Asia on how the talent shortage is the biggest bottleneck for the industry.

新兴芯片材料制造商IV Technologies正在招人的杨韦恩(Wayne Yang,音译)表示:“我尝试了各种渠道,还问了以前的大学同学,看看有没有学弟学妹感兴趣。但其中一个人对我说:‘抱歉,兄弟!基本上,只要是活着的工程师,都已经被大公司招走了。’”这个问题蔓延到了各个公司、细分行业和整个地区。德州仪器副总裁兼德州仪器日本、台湾、韩国及南亚地区总裁卢克·李(Luke Lee)表示,企业在越南争夺有限的人才库,而在人口不断减少的日本和韩国,这一挑战更为严峻。

"I am open to every channel, and asking my former college classmates to see if any of their younger schoolmates might be interested," employee-seeking Wayne Yang of emerging chip materials maker IV Technologies said. "But one of them told me, 'Sorry, bro! Basically, any living, breathing engineer has already been recruited by the big names.'" The problem extends across companies, subsectors and the region. Luke Lee, vice president of Texas Instruments and president of TI Japan, Taiwan, Korea and South Asia, said companies were competing over a limited talent pool in Vietnam, while the challenge was even more acute in Japan and South Korea, where the populations are declining.

他说:“整个行业都面临着同样的挑战,不仅仅是半导体行业……现在想要招到足够的人手非常困难。”

"The entire industry is facing the same challenge, not only semiconductors ... it is very difficult to hire enough people now," he said.

韩国副总理表示,人工智能应成为韩国的基础设施。很少有政府官员能像韩国副总理裴京勋(Bae Kyung-hoon)那样对人工智能充满热情。这位前LG人工智能研究员在首尔接受英国《金融时报》记者丹尼尔·都铎(Daniel Tudor)采访时表示,人工智能应被视为“像电力一样的基础设施”,每一位韩国公民都应能够“无需担心成本”地使用它。

AI should be basic infrastructure for South Korea, says deputy PM There can be few government evangelists for artificial intelligence as enthusiastic as South Korean Deputy Prime Minister Bae Kyung-hoon AI should be considered "basic infrastructure, like electricity" that every South Korean citizen should be able to access "without having to worry about the cost," the former LG AI researcher told the FT's Daniel Tudor in a recent interview in Seoul.

得益于人工智能本身推动的全球半导体繁荣所带来的税收红利,他拥有数万亿韩元(约合数十亿美元)的资金可用于投入人工智能项目。

He has several trillion won (or billions of U.S. dollars) to throw at AI initiatives thanks to a tax windfall from the global semiconductor boom that AI itself is propelling.

尽管本土芯片巨头SK海力士(SK Hynix)和三星电子(Samsung Electronics)实力雄厚且利润丰厚,但裴京勋担心,韩国在这些产品之上构建的技术可能会面临对他国产生依赖的风险。

Despite the prowess and profits of local chip champions SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, Bae fears that South Korea risks becoming dependent on other countries for the technology built on top of their products.

“很快,没有人工智能将无法工作,就像今天没有电脑就无法工作一样,”裴京勋说。“人们一直在思考:如果我们依赖美国的人工智能,而有一天它受到限制或价格变得过高,那该怎么办?”裴京勋表示,从1950年至1953年的朝鲜战争到1997年的亚洲金融危机,这些冲击强化了韩国国民快速适应的本能,而压缩式的经济发展也让国民几乎没有空间去“慢慢生活”。

"Soon it will be impossible to work without AI, just as today it is impossible to work without computers," said Bae. "People have been thinking: what happens if we become dependent on American AI and then one day it is controlled or the price becomes too high?" Bae said shocks from the 1950-53 Korean War to the 1997 Asian financial crisis had reinforced a national instinct for rapid adaptation, while compressed economic development had left citizens little room to "take things slowly in life".

“韩国人有一种非常强烈的倾向,总是想成为早期采用者,”他说。

"There is a very strong tendency always to be an early adopter," he said.

巨额投资和订单爆满表明人工智能发展不会停滞。在关于是否应放缓甚至暂停人工智能前沿发展的争论中,《日经亚洲》旧金山记者余一凡(Yifan Yu)走访了在硅谷举办的年度人工智能基础设施峰会(AI Infra Summit),此次峰会的参会人数比去年增加了一倍多。

Huge investments and full order books suggest no pause for AI Amid the debate on whether frontier development of AI should be slowed or even paused, Nikkei Asia's San Francisco correspondent Yifan Yu visited the annual AI Infra Summit in Silicon Valley, where attendance at the convention more than doubled on the previous year.

显然,加州正在经历一场“人工智能领域的淘金热”;相关供应商对未来前景持乐观态度,认为技术发展不会出现任何停滞。巨额的资金已经投入到基础设施建设中,订单量持续激增,这为人工智能技术的发展提供了强大的推动力。

It's clear there is another gold rush of the AI kind in California and its suppliers were bullish about their prospects and dismissive that there could be any kind of pause. The huge investment in an infrastructure buildout has already been committed and order books are bulging, giving huge impetus to the advancement of AI.

根据高盛的研究报告,到2026年,全球在人工智能领域的总投资将超过1万亿美元;而咨询公司贝恩(Bain)预测,仅数据中心建设的投资到2030年就将达到5万至6.5万亿美元。

Goldman Sachs Research suggests total global AI investment will exceed $1 trillion in 2026, while global investment in data center buildout alone is projected to reach $5 trillion to $6.5 trillion by 2030, according to consultancy firm Bain.

台积电子公司VIS的董事长Leuh Fang对《日经亚洲》表示:“资本、人才和资源都在涌入这个行业。如果采取更为谨慎、周密的发展策略(甚至放慢发展速度),也不会影响当前巨大的市场需求;从长远来看,这反而会对所有人有利。”

"Capital, talent and resources are all pouring into the sector," Leuh Fang, chairman of TSMC affiliate VIS, told Nikkei Asia. "A more measured, thoughtful and even slower approach to AI development would not undermine the massive demand we are seeing today.

新加坡正成为这场人工智能热潮的主要受益者。《日经亚洲》本周连续两天报道了新加坡的两家重要芯片制造企业的开业仪式:

In fact, it would benefit everyone in the long run." Singapore becoming a semiconductor AI hub Singapore is becoming a big beneficiary of the AI boom.

VIS于周一在该岛国开设了其首座先进的芯片制造工厂;由于人工智能基础设施建设的迅猛发展,该工厂的新产能早已被预订一空,VIS正在考虑建设第二座工厂。

Nikkei Asia's flew in to attend two major plant openings on consecutive days this week. VIS inaugurated its first advanced chipmaking plant in the city-state on Monday and is already eyeing a second facility with its new capacity "sold out" due to the massive AI infrastructure boom.

VIS与欧洲芯片制造商恩智浦(NXP)的合资企业“VisionPower Semiconductor Manufacturing Company”(VSMC)也在新加坡开业,这家企业专注于生产电源管理芯片和模拟芯片,目前市场需求正在持续飙升。

Its joint venture with European chipmaker NXP, known as VisionPower Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (VSMC), is opening amid soaring demand for their power management and analog chips.

此外,美国芯片制造商博通(Broadcom)和日本Toppan Holdings也提前数月在新加坡开设了首座先进的芯片基板制造工厂,计划在今年年底前实现量产。

On Tuesday, U.S. chipmaker Broadcom and Japan's Toppan Holdings opened Singapore's first advanced chip substrate plant months ahead of schedule, with mass production planned before the end of the year.

这些企业表示,他们的目标是缓解科技供应链中长期存在的基板短缺问题——这一问题一直制约着人工智能芯片的生产和数据中心的建设。

The partners said they aimed to "ease a persistent bottleneck" of severe substrate shortages in the tech supply chain that is constraining AI chipmaking and data center construction.

行业高管表示,新加坡的政治稳定性、可预测的政策以及相对较低的自然灾害风险,使其成为极具吸引力的投资目的地。

Industry executives say Singapore's political stability, predictable policies and relatively low exposure to natural disasters make it an attractive investment destination.

关于人工智能,目前您需要了解和想要知道的可能就是这些了。我们会在下一期通讯中尝试加入其他科技新闻,丰富内容!祝您度过愉快的一周!Chris 推荐阅读:夏普推出通用卫星天线,旨在挑战星链(Starlink)的市场主导地位(《日经亚洲》)英伟达支持的 Nscale 为冲击 350 亿美元 IPO 搁置字节跳动交易(《金融时报》)日本外务省计划招募海外专家从事军民两用技术研究(《日经亚洲》)腾讯推出支付应用,助力外国游客“深度游中国”(《金融时报》)富士康领衔台湾科技企业,计划在波兰建立人工智能与电动汽车中心(《日经亚洲》)软银支付高昂代价发行创纪录债券,为投资 OpenAI 筹集资金(《金融时报》)谷歌高管称亚洲人工智能应用普及速度超乎预期(《日经亚洲》)OpenAI 澳大利亚政府数据泄露事件与更广泛的 AI 黑客攻击活动有关(《金融时报》)OpenAI 推出个人 AI 智能体 Dot,对标 Meta 的 Muse(《日经亚洲》)希音(Shein)上市后首份财报利润不及预期,股价下跌(《金融时报》)播客:Tech Latest 亚洲数据中心面临日益增长的反对声欢迎收听 Tech Latest 播客,我们每周二为您带来科技行业最热门的趋势与新闻。

That's probably all you need and ever want to know about AI for now. We'll try to mix it up with other tech news in the next newsletter! Have a great week! Chris Suggested reads Sharp takes aim at Starlink dominance with universal satellite antenna (Nikkei Asia) Nvidia-backed Nscale buried ByteDance deal in push to $35bn IPO (FT) Japan Foreign Ministry to recruit overseas experts in dual-use tech (Nikkei Asia) Tencent launches payments app for 'China-maxxing' foreign tourists (FT) Foxconn leads Taiwan tech firms in plan for AI, EV hub in Poland (Nikkei Asia) SoftBank pays steep price for record bond sale to fund OpenAI bet (FT) Asia's AI adoption outpaces perception, says Google executive (Nikkei Asia) OpenAI breach of Australian government linked to wider AI hacking campaign (FT) OpenAI debuts personal AI agent Dot to rival Meta's Muse (Nikkei Asia) Shein shares sink after profits disappoint in first results since IPO (FT) Podcast: Tech Latest Asia's data centers face growing opposition Welcome to the Tech Latest podcast, where every Tuesday we deliver the hottest trends and news from the sector.

在本期节目中,新加入主持团队的 Chris Nuttall 与东京科技记者 Tsubasa Suruga 共同探讨了亚洲人工智能数据中心的快速扩张,分析了当地社区为何进行抵制,以及政府和开发商如何应对有关电力、水资源和透明度的担忧。

In this episode, new member of the hosting team Chris Nuttall speaks with Tokyo tech correspondent Tsubasa Suruga about the rapid expansion of AI data centers across Asia why local communities are pushing back and how governments and developers are responding to concerns over power, water and transparency.

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