移民问题——这一曾助力唐纳德·特朗普入主白宫并在过去十年中凝聚其支持者的议题——如今已成为选民眼中的次要事项。为何重要：对于特朗普和共和党而言，这又是通往十一月大选路上的一个不祥之兆。曾经作为该党核心号召力的议题，如今在各派选民中的重要性正在下降，而严厉的打击措施甚至使其在部分共和党人中成为了负资产。
Immigration — the issue that helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency and rally his supporters over the past decade — has become an afterthought for voters. Why it matters: It's another ominous sign for Trump and the GOP heading toward November. What was once a rallying cry for the party is losing salience with voters across the spectrum — and harsh crackdowns have even made it a liability among some Republicans.
- 共和党民调机构 Echelon Insights 的艾弗里·詹姆斯（Avery James）表示：“总体而言，共和党仅在两个议题上被视为更值得信赖的政党，即边境/移民问题以及犯罪与安全问题。但对于竞选策略师来说，问题很简单：犯罪和移民根本不是选民最关心的议题。”总体形势：就在两年前，移民问题还是全国选民，尤其是自认为是共和党人的选民最关心的问题之一。
• "On net, Republicans win out as the more trusted party on only two topics, and it's border/immigration [and] crime and safety," said Avery James of Echelon Insights, a Republican polling firm. "But the problem if you're a campaign strategist is quite simple: crime and immigration are just not the top issues for voters." The big picture: Just two years ago, immigration was a top concern for voters nationwide, especially self-identified Republicans.
- 据 AdImpact 的分析显示，在拜登总统宣布放弃竞选连任后，共和党将其一半的广告预算用于投放与移民相关的广告。
• After President Biden dropped his reelection bid, the GOP spent half its advertising budget on immigration-related ads, per an AdImpact analysis.
- 与共和党参议院竞选机构合作的共和党民调专家埃里克·艾弗森（Erik Iverson）表示：“如果你询问人们关心的总体议题，移民问题已从两年前的前三名跌落至榜单末尾，支持率仅为个位数。”深层含义：民调专家指出，对移民问题的担忧在拜登任期内达到顶峰，当时南部边境的非法越境和寻求庇护者人数激增。
• "If you ask [about] immigration as an overall issue that people care about, it went from like a top three issue two years ago to way down the list now, in single digits," said Erik Iverson, a GOP pollster working with the Republican Senate campaign arm. Between the lines: Pollsters say concern about immigration peaked during Biden's tenure, when illegal border crossings and asylum seekers at the Southern border surged.
- 然而，在特朗普执政几周后，随着他部署美军驻守边境、实施庇护申请禁令并暂停难民接收，越境人数大幅下降。
• But weeks into Trump's term, crossings dropped dramatically after he deployed the U.S. military at the border, instituted a ban on asylum claims and paused refugee admissions.
- “你成了自己成功的受害者，”艾弗森说道。聚焦：生活成本已成为选民最关心的议题，远超移民问题。对于试图在竞争激烈的全州选举中争取选民的共和党人来说，这无疑是个坏消息。
• "You become a victim of your own success," Iverson said. Zoom in: Cost of living ranks as the top issue for voters, far outpacing immigration. That's especially bad news for Republicans trying to turn out voters in competitive statewide races.
- 根据德克萨斯大学的一项民意调查，大约一年前，超过半数的德克萨斯州共和党人和四分之一的独立选民认为边境安全和移民是该州最重要的问题。而在八月份进行的最新调查显示，这一比例已减半。
• More than half of Texas Republicans and one-quarter of independents said border security and immigration was Texas's most important problem about one year ago, according University of Texas poll. Its latest survey, conducted in August, shows that figure cut in half.
- 在密歇根州，由特朗普的民调专家法布里齐奥·沃德（Fabrizio Ward）为美国退休人员协会（AARP）共同开展的一项调查显示，只有14%的选民将其视为首要议题。
• In Michigan, only 14% of all voters said it was their top issue in a survey for AARP co-conducted by Trump pollster Fabrizio Ward.
- 九月份针对俄亥俄州选民的一项民调显示，当被要求列出三大议题时，有25%的选民对移民问题表示担忧。但这一比例远低于对经济和通胀表示担忧的选民总和（70%）。
• A September poll of Ohio voters shows a higher share concerned about immigration, 25%, when asked to name their top three issues. But it was dwarfed by a combined 70% who were most concerned about the economy and inflation.
- 共和党民调机构Cygnal的布伦特·布坎南（Brent Buchanan）表示：“这个问题在共和党人中的热度下降了，因为他们不再每天都看到相关新闻，也不再每天都感到受其威胁。”
• "That issue just dropped with Republicans because they weren't seeing it every day. They weren't feeling threatened by it every day," said Brent Buchanan, of Cygnal, a Republican polling firm.
核心看点：根据艾弗森（Iverson）最近与参议院共和党人分享的民调数据，将移民问题与经济和生活成本挂钩，对那些投票意愿较低的特朗普支持者仍然具有号召力。
The intrigue: Tying immigration to the economy and cost of living still resonates with low-propensity Trump voters, according to polling Iverson recently shared with Senate Republicans.
- 布坎南还表示，边境安全问题在特定竞选中仍可被有效利用，以凸显候选人之间的差异。但它不太可能提高他所称的“温和派共和党人”的投票率。
• And Buchanan said that border security can still be used effectively to draw a contrast between candidates in specific races. But it's unlikely to drive turnout among what he called "soft Republicans."
数据分析：选民对特朗普处理移民问题的方式开始感到不满。
By the numbers: Voters are starting to sour on Trump's handling of immigration.
- 益普索（Ipsos）八月下旬的一项调查显示，对他处理移民问题的不支持率已升至58%，而去年特朗普上任时这一比例为38%。
• His disapproval rating on immigration jumped to 58% in a late August survey from Ipsos, up from 38% when Trump took office last year. Stunning stat:
惊人数据：九月份《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院（Siena College）联合开展的一项民调显示，在移民问题上，民主党的受信任度以51%对45%领先于共和党。然而，大多数其他民调仍显示共和党在该议题上占据优势。
A September New York Times/Siena poll showed Democrats are more trusted on immigration than Republicans by 51 to 45%. Most other polling, however, still shows Republicans ahead on the issue. • "Everyone likes enforcement until it hits close to home or they get the wrong person.
- 一位前白宫官员表示：“每个人都支持执法，直到它影响到切身利益或抓错了人。让人反感的未必是政策本身，而是手段。必须找到一个中间地带。”
It's not necessarily the policies. It's the tactics that are turning people off. There has to be a middle ground," a former White House official said.
另一方观点：“由于特朗普总统阻止了移民对美国的入侵，并实现了美国历史上最安全的边境环境，美国民众对移民问题的关注程度有所降低，”白宫发言人劳伦·比斯在一份声明中表示。“得益于特朗普强有力的移民执法政策，大约有300万非法移民离开了美国；在过去16个月里，没有一名非法移民被允许进入美国边境。”
The other side: "Americans are less concerned about immigration because President Trump stopped the invasion of our country and delivered the most secure border in American history," White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis said in a statement. "Thanks to President Trump's strong immigration enforcement policies, approximately three million illegals have left the United States and zero illegals have been released at the border in sixteen months." What they're saying:
专家观点：民调结果显示，民主党在某些拥有大量西班牙裔人口的地区获得了新的机会。
The polling trends are giving Democrats a new opening, especially in areas with sizable Hispanic populations.
- 拉丁裔选民调查机构Equis的创始人斯蒂芬妮·瓦伦西亚指出：“共和党人正竭力在移民问题上与特朗普保持距离，因为他们知道这一议题对拉丁裔选民来说极具争议性。”
• Republicans are "trying so hard to distance themselves from Trump on the overall immigration issue because they know it is toxic with Latino voters right now," said Stephanie Valencia, founder of the Latino-focused polling firm Equis.
- 她认为：“民主党应该承认特朗普在维护美墨边境安全方面所取得的成就。”但她同时强调：“但归根结底，民众的需求远不止这些。”
• "Democrats should be giving Trump credit for the control and the maintenance of the U.S.-Mexico border," she said. But "at the end of the day, people are asking for a lot more than that."