中东地缘政治紧张局势及由此导致的霍尔木兹海峡供应链中断，引发了全球化肥市场的严重供应短缺，推高了玉米和大豆价格。
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and resulting supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a severe supply crunch in the global fertilizer market, driving up corn and soybean prices.
作为主要农作物关键化肥的磷酸二铵，在今年前九个月飙升了28.4%，达到每公吨802.5美元。
Diammonium phosphate, a key fertilizer for staple agricultural crops, surged 28.4% in the first nine months of the year to $802.5 per metric ton.
从2025年底每吨625美元的涨幅，推高了主要农产品成本，其中玉米价格上涨13.3%，大豆上涨22.6%。
The rise from $625 per ton at the end of 2025 pushed up costs for major agricultural commodities, with corn prices rising 13.3% and soybeans 22.6%.
霍尔木兹海峡实际上对海运关闭，限制了农业投入品的获取，因为在正常情况下，全球约三分之一的化肥贸易通过这一关键水道。
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime shipping constrained access to agricultural inputs, as around one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the vital waterway under normal circumstances.
中东冲突威胁石油供应，以及霍尔木兹海峡等关键咽喉要道的风险，推高了原油价格中的风险溢价，进而推高了柴油成本——农业生产最基本的投入品之一。化肥市场通过天然气和氨价格上涨感受到了最强烈的冲击。
Conflicts in the Middle East threatening oil supplies and risks at critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz pushed up risk premiums in crude oil prices, driving up the cost of diesel fuel, one of the most basic inputs for agricultural production. The fertilizer market has felt the strongest impact through rising natural gas and ammonia prices.
由于成本上升，农民被迫减少化肥使用，这反过来拖累了全球产量预期。
Farmers have been forced to use less fertilizer due to higher costs, in turn weighing on global yield expectations.
科威特土耳其参与银行投资研究总监库泰·古兹戈尔告诉阿纳多卢通讯社，这些供应冲击的影响远远超出了以尿素为基础的氮肥。
Kutay Guzgor, investment research director at Participation Bank Kuveyt Turk, told Anadolu that these supply shocks have extended well beyond urea-based nitrogen fertilizers.
他说：“磷酸二铵化肥受到物流瓶颈影响，其生产所需的大量硫磺和氨供应通过霍尔木兹海峡，这导致磷肥价格出现持续刚性。”
“Diammonium phosphate fertilizer is affected by logistical bottlenecks, and that a significant portion of the sulfur and ammonia supplies vital for its production pass through the Strait of Hormuz creates persistent rigidity in phosphate fertilizer prices,” he said.
古兹戈尔表示，物流瓶颈有可能巩固农业产量预期的结构性下降，因为农民在2026-2027种植季被迫在目标施肥量上妥协。
Guzgor said the logistical bottleneck risks cementing a structural decline in agricultural yield expectations as farmers are forced to compromise on their targeted fertilizer applications in the 2026-2027 planting season.
尽管在临时的美伊协议下出货量曾短暂回升，但随后停火协议破裂、7月中旬敌对行动再度升级，使出口量远低于战前水平。
Despite a brief recovery in shipments amid a temporary US-Iran agreement, the subsequent collapse of the ceasefire and resurgence of hostilities in mid-July kept export volumes well below pre-war levels.
他指出，替代性全球供应商通过重新规划更长距离的供应链，有助于缩减当前的供应缺口，但这持续推高了基准运费成本。
He noted that alternative global suppliers helped reduce the immediate supply gap by rerouting supply chains across longer distances, which continues to increase baseline freight costs.
他警告称，地区能源价格若再度飙升，可能导致天然气和氮基化肥价格再次暴涨。
He warned that a renewed spike in regional energy prices could lead to another surge in natural gas and nitrogen-based fertilizer prices.
古兹戈尔表示，他预计明年高昂的化肥和能源成本对种植面积和生产率的影响将至关重要。
Guzgor said he expects the impact of high fertilizer and energy costs on planting areas and productivity to be decisive next year.
“虽然化肥成本增加了农民的生产成本并压缩利润空间，但高成本的长期持续可能导致化肥使用减少、配比调整，或转向种植需肥量较少的作物——氮磷钾使用量的减少虽可能在短期内限制生产者成本，但最终将在未来一段时间内对产量造成压力，”他补充道。
“While fertilizer costs increase farmers’ production costs and squeeze profit margins, the prolonged persistence of high costs could lead to reduced fertilizer use, shifts in allocation, or a shift towards crops needing less fertilizer – a decrease in the use of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium may limit producer costs in the short term but ultimately pressure yields in the coming period,” he added.