字号 ·· | 护眼
亚洲新闻台

英伟达押注其芯片能为AI热潮提供资金,却遭遇华尔街的现实检验Nvidia's bet that its chips can finance the AI boom gets a Wall Street reality check

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

纽约,10月1日:英伟达(Nvidia)庞大的融资计划在华尔街引发了一场关于其先进芯片及相关基础设施价值几何的辩论。对于银行和投资者而言,答案似乎是:其价值并没有英伟达预想的那么高。

NEW YORK, Oct 1 : Nvidia's mammoth financing plan has opened a debate on Wall Street about how much its advanced chips and the infrastructure around them are worth. The answer for banks and investors seems to be: Not as much as Nvidia thinks.

据路透社采访的银行消息人士和信贷经理透露,一些贷款方希望获得比该公司最初概述的更高的担保,即使是针对英伟达行业领先的AI处理能力也是如此,因为他们正试图评估这些芯片带来的收入能持续多久。部分受访者要求匿名。

这些提供被称为“计算”的关键处理能力的芯片,正处于英伟达与持谨慎态度的华尔街之间观点分歧的中心,这为寻求利用大规模新资本池的AI公司带来了潜在的未来融资难题。

Some lenders want higher guarantees than the company had originally outlined, even for Nvidia's industry-leading AI processing power, as they try to calculate how long the revenue from its chips will last, banking sources and credit managers told Reuters, some requesting anonymity. The chips, which provide the critical processing power known as "compute", are at the center of a potential mismatch in views between Nvidia and a more cautious Wall Street, raising potential future financing headaches for AI companies seeking to tap deep new pools of capital.

银行家和资产管理人士表示,他们对这些芯片能否像英伟达所说的那样作为长期抵押品存疑,因此希望该公司能为其依赖芯片支持贷款的5000亿美元融资计划提供更多担保。

The bankers and asset managers said they have some doubts that the chips can act as long-term collateral as Nvidia says, and therefore want more guarantees from the company on its $500-billion financing plan that relies on chip-backed loans.

消息人士告诉路透社,目前筹备中的交易很可能为投资者提供更高的确定性,包括更强有力的担保。

Already, sources told Reuters, deals in the pipeline likely offer investors more certainty including stronger guarantees.

Impax资产管理公司高级投资组合经理托尼·特琴卡(Tony Trzcinka)在谈到英伟达关于其最专业芯片能带来十年收入的说法时表示:“华尔街要保守得多。”

"Wall Street is much more conservative," Tony Trzcinka, a senior portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management, said of Nvidia's claim that its most specialized chips can earn revenues for a decade.

英伟达发言人在一份声明中表示,其“AI计算是一种高效、耐用且可替代的资产,能够支持长期融资。我们的融资合作伙伴会独立评估每一个机会,包括客户承诺、预期现金流和剩余价值。”该发言人补充道:“随着市场的发展,融资结构也会有所不同。”对英伟达融资计划的质疑随着企业和投资者向数据中心、芯片及电力容量投入数千亿美元以支撑更广泛的AI热潮(该热潮正推动美国经济增长),市场对英伟达融资计划的质疑声日益高涨。这一趋势加剧了外界对复杂交易结构以及计算硬件长期价值假设的审视。

In a statement, an Nvidia spokesperson said that its "AI compute is a productive, durable and fungible asset that can support long-term financing. Our financing partners independently assess each opportunity, including customer commitments, expected cash flow and residual value." "Financing structures will vary as this market develops," the spokesperson added. QUESTIONS OVER PLAN The questions over Nvidia's financing plan come as companies and investors are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers, chips and power capacity to support the broader AI boom, which is driving US economic growth. That has increased scrutiny of the more complex deals, and assumptions about the longer-term value of computing hardware.

晨星(Morningstar)分析师在近期的一份报告中指出,部分人士对私募信贷、供应商融资及循环交易的使用提出了质疑。其中,供应商融资和循环交易在25多年前的互联网泡沫兴起与破裂期间曾扮演过重要角色。

Some have questioned the use of private credit, vendor financing and circular deals, the last two of which played a role during the dot-com boom and bust more than 25 years ago, Morningstar analysts said in a recent note.

英伟达于8月宣布的该计划,与黑石(Blackstone)、阿波罗(Apollo)和KKR等金融机构合作,设想以芯片作为有限担保的抵押品,从而为AI开发者提供获取英伟达算力的途径。该策略被视为一种成本高昂但必要的举措,旨在创建一个类似于飞机租赁市场的融资市场。

Nvidia's plan, announced with financiers including Blackstone, Apollo and KKR in August, had envisioned using chips as collateral with limited guarantee in order to allow AI developers a way to facilitate their access to Nvidia's compute. The strategy was seen as an expensive but necessary way to create a financing market similar to that used in the leasing of aircraft.

英伟达表示,部分交易的残值担保比例可能不超过25%,并称该计划旨在解决围绕循环融资的担忧。

Nvidia has said that some of the deals could have no more than a 25 per cent residual value guarantee, saying the initiative is designed to address concerns around circular financing.

这一安排被认为提供的支持少于近期其他AI融资交易,从而引发华尔街部分人士预期英伟达需要采取更具创造性的措施。

This was seen as offering less support than other recent AI financing deals, raising expectations among some on Wall Street that Nvidia would need to get more creative.

三位熟悉该事项但并非原始融资小组成员的银行消息人士称,英伟达可能需要为其所有交易提供担保,或者这些交易可能需要由来自投资级客户(如科技公司)的收入流作为支持,以覆盖债务。

Three banking sources, who were familiar with the matter but not part of the original financing group, said Nvidia may need to offer guarantees on all of its deals, or they may have to be backed by a revenue stream from investment-grade customers such as a technology firm to cover the debt.

他们告诉路透社,目前市场尚未准备好将这家芯片制造商的算力视为类似于飞机的可投资资产。更多确定性消息人士补充称,英伟达正试图缓解这些担忧,并提供了此前未报道的细节。

For now, they told Reuters, the market is not ready to treat the chip-maker's compute as an investment-worthy asset akin to aircraft. MORE CERTAINTY Nvidia is seeking to ease these concerns, the sources added, giving details that had not previously been reported.

一位消息人士称,目前正在筹备中的数百亿美元贷款交易很可能拥有强有力的担保和合同。第二位消息人士表示,正在探索的一些结构可能会为贷款方提供担保。

Tens of billions of dollars of loan deals in the pipeline are likely to have strong guarantees and contracts, one source said. A second source said that some structures being explored would potentially give lenders guarantees.

第一位消息人士称,这些初步交易将使人工智能开发商能够使用该公司的计算资源,并由英伟达自有的芯片作为抵押,同时由客户合同和英伟达的底层担保提供支持。

These initial deals will give AI developers access to the company's compute, and they are secured by Nvidia's own chips and will be backed by customer contracts and by Nvidia's underlying guarantee, said the first source.

消息人士称,尽管对担保存在担忧,但为这些交易提供融资的需求依然高涨。英伟达发言人没有直接回应路透社关于可能扩大担保范围的提问。

Despite the concerns over guarantees, there remains high demand to finance the deals, the sources said. The Nvidia spokesperson did not directly address Reuters' questions about potentially expanded guarantees.

首席执行官黄仁勋曾表示,他的目标是将英伟达的计算资源打造为“可投资的基础设施资产”,而不是像以往那样,客户通过购买人工智能公司的订阅合同来获取计算资源。

Chief Executive Jensen Huang has said he aimed to make Nvidia's compute "an investable infrastructure asset", as opposed to the typical system of customers buying subscription contracts to AI firms in order to get access to the compute.

黄仁勋在8月份的一篇博客文章中表示,这项5000亿美元的计划旨在解决人们对循环融资的担忧,即一家公司帮助资助其自身产品的购买。他说,这为人工智能基础设施市场引入了独立的机构资本,同时英伟达的金融合作伙伴从投资者那里筹集资金以支持贷款。

Huang said in a blog post in August that the $500-billion initiative was designed to address concerns about circular financing, or when a company helps finance purchases of its own products. It brings independent institutional capital into the AI infrastructure market, while Nvidia's financial partners raise money from investors to support loans, he said.

第三位银行业消息人士称,预计贷款方和私人资本将在这一融资中发挥作用。

A third banking source said that lenders and private capital are expected to play a role in this funding.

该公司的六家金融合作伙伴中有五家拒绝就本文置评,阿波罗全球管理公司(Apollo)则未回应置评请求。

Five of the company's six financial partners declined to comment for this article, while Apollo did not respond to a request for comment.

芯片寿命:这位首席执行官在文中回应了一些质疑,他表示英伟达的图形处理器(GPU)——即用于训练和运行人工智能模型的专用芯片——其使用寿命长达十年。一些信贷投资者和银行家则认为,芯片产生收入的寿命要短得多。

CHIP LIFE The CEO addressed some skepticism when he said in the post that Nvidia's graphics processing units, or GPUs - specialized chips whose compute is used to train and run AI models - have a useful life of up to a decade. Some credit investors and bankers see a more modest lifespan of chips generating revenue.

标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)董事安德鲁·张(Andrew Chang)表示:“英伟达暗示其GPU的使用寿命远超五年,而迄今为止,这一说法确实已被证明是事实。”但他补充道:“我们对这些芯片的价值持保守态度。”

"Nvidia would imply that the GPUs work well north of five years, and that actually has been proven to be true thus far," said Andrew Chang, a director at S&P Global Ratings. Yet "we take a conservative view of the value of those chips," he said.

第一位银行业消息人士称,银行与英伟达在观点上存在分歧,部分原因在于目前缺乏足够的历史数据,导致贷款机构无法自信地基于GPU来评估长期残值。

The first banking source said that part of the divergence in views with the company is that there still isn't enough historical data for lenders to confidently underwrite long-term residual value based on GPUs.

Impax公司的特辛卡(Trzcinka)表示:“银行通常按照3至4年的折旧周期来评估GPU的价值。”

"Banks typically underwrite GPUs over a 3-4 year depreciation schedule," said Trzcinka of Impax.

他说:“这与英伟达的观点不同,英伟达认为顶级GPU可以产生长达十年的收益。”他补充道,在为以AI芯片作为抵押品的贷款提供支持之前,投资者可能会要求更高的利率、更充足的财务缓冲以及更强的还款保障。

"That is different than Nvidia which argues top-tier GPUs can earn revenue for a decade," he said, adding investors are likely to seek higher interest rates, bigger financial cushions and stronger repayment protections before backing loans secured by AI chips.

管理着1.3万亿美元资产的惠灵顿管理公司(Wellington Management)固定收益投资组合经理洛伦·莫兰(Loren Moran)表示:“作为投资者,为了承担额外的风险,你会对所要求的补偿水平变得更加挑剔。”

"As investors, you're going to be a lot pickier about the levels that you need to get compensated for to take incremental risk," said Loren Moran, fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management, with $1.3 trillion in assets under management.

英伟达指出,多项第三方研究显示,大型云服务公司已将服务器的折旧期从3至4年延长至5至6年。

Nvidia pointed to several third-party studies that showed major cloud companies extending the depreciation periods for servers up to five to six years, from three to four.

该公司还引用了为GPU等AI抵押品提供估值的公司Barkr的一项研究结果,该结果显示英伟达最新的GB300 NVL72系统的使用寿命可达9至10年。

It also pointed to a finding from Barkr, a firm that provides valuations for AI collateral such as GPUs, that the company's most recent GB300 NVL72 systems could have a useful life of 9 to 10 years.

芯片抵押贷款:一些公司已经尝试过以芯片作为抵押的贷款市场,但与英伟达的情况不同,这些交易是由科技公司的收入作为还款支持的。

CHIP-BACKED LOANS Some companies have tested the market with chip-backed loans, but, unlike Nvidia's, these deals were backed by revenue from a technology firm to support debt payments.

今年早些时候,英伟达参股的CoreWeave完成了85亿美元的融资,这是首笔获得投资级评级的GPU抵押贷款。该贷款被评为A3级,主要原因是贷款机构依赖Meta的合同付款,这些付款被视为高度可靠。

CoreWeave, in which Nvidia has a stake, closed an $8.5-billion facility in the first investment grade GPU-backed loan earlier this year. The loan is rated A3 largely because lenders rely on Meta's contractual payments, which are viewed as highly dependable.

另外,作为英伟达的竞争对手,博通(Broadcom)正在为 Anthropic 的人工智能计算能力提供融资支持。博通为一项 350 亿美元的融资结构提供了超过 80% 的担保,从而吸引了债务投资者。

Separately, Broadcom, an Nvidia rival that is helping finance AI computing capacity for Anthropic, backstopped more than 80 per cent of a $35-billion financing structure, helping to attract debt investors.

据标普(S&P)和穆迪(Moody's)称,英伟达此前也曾提供残值担保,以支持 SB Energy 在俄亥俄州的数据中心项目融资。

Nvidia itself previously provided a residual-value guarantee to support financing for SB Energy's Ohio data-center project, according to S&P and Moody's.

管理着超过 2000 亿美元资产的 TCW 全球信贷联席主管布莱恩·格尔凡德(Brian Gelfand)表示:“迄今为止的先例交易表明,债权人并不希望这些资产的平均寿命过长。”

"The precedent transactions so far would suggest that the creditor community does not to long average lives for these assets," said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW, which manages more than $200 billion.