能源股是刚结束的第三季度中表现最好的美国资产之一,因为与伊朗战争相关的通胀压力,以及美国经济难以遏制的增长,成为推动价格的主要因素。
Energy stocks were some of the best-performing U.S. assets to own in the just-ended third quarter, as inflationary pressures related to the Iran war and irrepressible U.S. growth established themselves as key price-drivers.
重要性在于:在截至周三的三个月里,油气钻井企业、炼油商和零售商的表现,对推动标普500等大盘指数保持上涨(+2%)起到了关键作用。年初至今,标普500指数上涨了11.8%。
Why it matters: The performance of oil-and-gas drillers, refiners and retailers was crucial to keeping broader indexes such as the S&P 500 in the black (+2%) during the three months that ended Wednesday. For the year so far, the S&P is up 11.8%.
从更宏观的角度看,与伊朗战争相关的油价——更具体地说,是柴油价格——带来的压力,是本季度的主导主题。
Zoom out: Renewed pressure from oil prices—or perhaps more specifically diesel-fuel prices — related to the Iran war were a dominant theme during the quarter.
但利率上升重创了市场中对利率敏感的部分,例如小盘股(即罗素2000指数)。这些企业的财务灵活性通常较低,而且背负更多浮动利率债务。
But those higher rates slammed rate-sensitive parts of the market like small caps (that's the Russell 2000 index) — which tend to have less financial flexibility, and more floating-rate debt.
所谓动能股——投资者偏爱其上涨势头,而非营收和利润等基本面因素——也受到打击,因为它们与高增长股有大量重叠,而高增长股往往会在利率上升时受挫。
So-called momentum stocks — investor favorites for their propensity to go up, rather than fundamentals like revenue and profit — also got hit, as they have significant overlap with high growth shares that tend to suffer from higher rates.
当然,利率上升也重创了债券市场。美国广义债券市场经历了自2022年以来最糟糕的季度;当时美联储正积极加息,以遏制飙升的通胀。归根结底,油价和利率既会带来利好,也会造成损失。
Of course, rising interest rates also hammered bond markets. The broad U.S. bond market endured its worst quarter since back in 2022, when the Fed was hustling to lift rates to quell surging inflation. The bottom line: Oil and rates giveth, and taketh away.