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德克萨斯州的政治因素可能会推迟雪佛龙大型数据中心投资决策Texas politics could delay investment decision for huge Chevron data center

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关键信息:德克萨斯州的州政变动可能会推迟美国最大的数据中心项目之一的最终投资决策。

The Scoop Texas state politics could delay the final investment decision on one of the US’ largest new data center projects.

该项目名为“Kilby Project”,是由雪佛龙(Chevron)与新兴的能源开发商Joulent共同投资的。该项目计划使用近3吉瓦的“独立式”燃气轮机(即不接入州电网的燃气轮机)为位于德克萨斯州西部的大型微软数据中心供电。目前,该项目的地基施工工作已经启动,开发商们正在敲定建设合同并等待最终的政府许可。

Project Kilby, a joint venture between Chevron and the newly formed energy project developer Joulent, is set to use nearly 3 gigawatts of “behind-the-meter” gas turbines — that is, unconnected to the state grid — to power a massive Microsoft data center in West Texas. Preliminary earthmoving work is already underway at the site while the developers finalize construction contracts and await final state permits.

然而,根据雪佛龙负责电力解决方案的副总裁Daniel Droog的说法,由于州长Greg Abbott上个月实施了新的数据中心许可禁令,原定于今年年底做出的最终投资决策可能会被推迟至2027年。Droog在接受采访时指出:“在整个人工智能基础设施行业中,德克萨斯州的许可和监管流程确实导致了一些进展放缓或潜在的延误。”

But the final investment decision, originally expected by the end of this year, could be pushed to 2027 following a moratorium on new data center permits imposed last month by Gov. Greg Abbott, according to Daniel Droog, Chevron’s vice president for power solutions. In general across the AI infrastructure industry, which has been growing rapidly in Texas, “the permitting and regulatory side has caused some slowdown or potential delay in the system,” Droog said in an interview.

不过他强调,“Kilby Project”仍有望在2028年之前开始发电。此外,Joulent公司也进行了人员调整:据Semafor独家报道,该公司聘请了两名来自LNG出口商Cheniere的前高管担任高层管理职位。

Still, Kilby is on track to produce its first electrons by 2028, he said. Joulent also has some new management: Two former executives from the LNG exporter Cheniere were tapped by the firm for C-level leadership roles, Semafor can exclusively report.

“Know More”项目相较于其他新兴的超大规模数据中心项目具有多项优势,这些优势应能帮助该项目在当前的政治压力下持续发展。首先,该项目将完全依靠自身产生的电力运行,因此不会增加当地电网其他用户的用电成本。Joulent公司是由投资机构Engine No. 1成立的;该机构在供应链危机爆发前几年前就购买了多台燃气轮机,这意味着该项目已经配备了最必要的硬件设施。

Know More Project Kilby has a number of advantages over other nascent hyperscaler data center projects that should give it staying power through the current political backlash. For one, the project will generate all its own power, and therefore not raise electricity costs for other consumers on the local grid. Joulent was formed from the investment firm Engine No. 1, which bought up a number of gas turbines several years ago before the supply chain crunch really kicked in, meaning the project is already equipped with its most essential hardware.

该项目位于二叠纪油气盆地之上,这里的天然气资源极为丰富,以至于天然气几乎被视为“废弃物”;雪佛龙(Chevron)投资该项目的部分动机就是为了为自己的天然气业务寻找新的稳定客户。此外,该项目位于农村地区,因此当地居民的反对声音(NIMBY情绪)以及土地使用纠纷等问题相对较少。“二叠纪油气盆地的资源条件对项目的成功至关重要,”Droog说道。

It sits on top of the Permian oil and gas basin, where gas has been so abundant that it’s practically treated as a waste product; part of Chevron’s motivation for pursuing the project is to create a new anchor customer for its own gas. And it’s located in a rural area where NIMBYs and land use conflicts aren’t much of a concern. “For getting that equation right, the Permian is very advantageous,” Droog said.

Joulent的新任首席财务官Michael Wortley表示,项目的建设合同预计“再过几周甚至几天就能最终确定”。至于相关政府许可,他相信该项目已经满足了Abbott公司提出的所有要求:“如果你是解决问题的力量,而不是问题的根源,最终你肯定能够获得所需的许可。”

Michael Wortley, Joulent’s new CFO, said that the finalization of the project’s construction contracts is “a couple weeks, if not days, away.”As for state permits, he said he was confident that the project ticks off the various prerequisites Abbott has outlined: “If you’re part of the solution rather than the problem, ultimately you’ll get your permits.”

Tim的观点是:对数据中心发展实施的最严格限制(包括纽约州和德克萨斯州颁布的禁令)很可能只是暂时性的现象,一旦11月的选举结束、新的法规和政策框架确立,这些限制就会得到缓解。不过,整个数据中心行业的发展趋势正从过去那种几乎不受任何监管的“野蛮状态”转向更加规范的监管环境。这意味着投资者需要保持耐心——尽管市场信号强烈呼吁他们尽快建设人工智能基础设施。

Tim’s view The most draconian restrictions on data center development, including the moratoria imposed by New York and Texas, are likely a temporary phenomenon that will ease once the November elections have passed and more basic ground rules take shape. Still, the direction of travel for this industry is from a Wild West of essentially unbridled development to a more regulated status quo. That means investors will need to practice patience, despite the market signals screaming at them to build AI infrastructure as quickly as possible.

我认为“Kilby项目”并没有面临根本性的威胁:与微软签订的为期20年的电力采购协议,对于任何数据中心项目来说,都是非常具有商业可行性的。然而,与美国的情况类似,政治因素往往比资金、硬件或劳动力等因素更具阻碍作用。如果像“Kilby项目”这样进展顺利的项目未来也可能出现进展放缓的情况,其他数据中心开发商也应相应地调整自己的预期。

I don’t see any signs that Project Kilby is fundamentally in jeopardy: A 20-year offtake deal with Microsoft is about as bankable as a power project can get. But as is often the case in the US, politics remain a bigger roadblock than capital, hardware, or workforce. If even a project with as much momentum behind it as Kilby sees a possible slowdown ahead, other data center developers should temper their expectations for pacing accordingly.

值得注意的是,一项旨在保护消费者免受数据中心相关电力成本增加影响的联邦立法在周三被参议院民主党议员否决了。这些议员认为该立法“缺乏实际效力”,并未解决能源成本问题(即消费者无法负担更高电力费用的问题)。

Notable Federal legislation to shield consumers from higher power costs related to data centers was blocked by Senate Democrats on Wednesday, who said the legislation was “toothless” and did not address energy affordability concerns.