拉脱维亚道加夫皮尔斯，10月1日——在周六的全国大选之后，这位坚定支持乌克兰的拉脱维亚总理安德里斯·库尔贝格斯很可能会继续执政。由于多次俄罗斯侵犯领空的行为（这些行为曾导致上届联合政府垮台），许多选民开始对俄罗斯的潜在侵略行为感到担忧。
DAUGAVPILS, Latvia, Oct 1 - Latvia's staunchly pro-Ukraine Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is likely to retain power after Saturday's national election, as many voters grow wary of potential Russian aggression amid airspace incursions that brought down the previous coalition.
47岁的库尔贝格斯曾是一名赛车运动员。今年5月，由于上届政府在处理无人机入侵事件时表现不佳（那些无人机实际上是乌克兰制造的，但官员们将它们偏离飞行路径的责任归咎于俄罗斯），他成功上台执政。
Kulbergs, 47, a former racing driver, came to power in May after a previous coalition crumbled over its handling of incidents in which stray military drones flew undetected into Latvia. Though the drones were Ukrainian, officials have blamed Russia for causing them to divert from their flight paths.
波罗的海地区的官员们数月来一直警告称，俄罗斯正在欧洲各地发动破坏活动、网络攻击以及其他形式的混合攻击，旨在削弱人们对乌克兰的支持并制造恐慌；不过他们认为俄罗斯没有能力直接对北约发动攻击。俄罗斯方面则否认这些指控，称它们是反俄情绪的产物。
Baltic officials have warned for months Russia is mounting sabotage, cyber- and other hybrid attacks across Europe to erode support for Ukraine and sow fear, although they dismiss concerns it is capable of launching a direct assault on NATO. Russia says such accusations are baseless and the result of anti-Russian hysteria.
在竞选期间，库尔贝格斯承诺将“坚定不移地支持乌克兰”，并加强拉脱维亚的防空能力。
Throughout his campaign, Kulbergs has promised "unwavering support to Ukraine" and more anti-drone capabilities for Latvia.
选举将于周六上午8点（格林尼治标准时间05:00）开始，下午8点结束。初步结果预计将在几小时内公布，最终结果可能要等到午夜之后才能确定。
Polls open at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) on Saturday and close at 8 p.m., with the first results expected within hours and the final result likely to be clear after midnight.
组建联合政府将面临困难：库尔贝格斯所属的中间派政党“联合名单党”在民意调查中领先，但仅获得了14.4%的选票。由于预计有7个政党将在议会中获得席位，因此组建联合政府将是一项艰巨的任务。
COALITION-BUILDING LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT Kulbergs' centrist United List party leads the polls, though with only 14.4% of the vote, and putting a coalition together will likely be a tough task, with seven parties expected to win seats in parliament.
库尔贝格斯周三在首都里加对路透社表示：“乌克兰战争分裂了我们的社会，很多人对当前局势的看法并不一致。社会中有相当一部分人并不认为俄罗斯构成威胁，他们也不明白为什么政府要在大规模投资国防领域……他们的想法是错误的。”另一个获得较多支持的政党是亲俄的“主权力量党”，该党得到了拉脱维亚大量讲俄语的少数族裔的支持，在民意调查中获得了9.4%的选票，位居第二位。
"The Ukraine war has divided our society. A lot of people do not share the same outlook," Kulbergs told Reuters in the capital Riga on Wednesday. "A pretty large part of society does not perceive Russia as a threat, they do not understand why the government is investing big money in defence ... They are mistaken." The pro-Russian Sovereign Power, which draws support from Latvia's substantial Russian-speaking minority, is running second in opinion polls with 9.4%.
该政党承诺停止对乌克兰战争的支持；其领导人尤利娅·斯捷潘enko拒绝明确表示是否支持对俄罗斯实施经济制裁。她对路透社表示：“我们的选民渴望和平。”
It pledges to stop help to Ukraine's war effort, and its leader Julia Stepanenko refused to state whether she supported economic sanctions on Russia. "Our voters want peace," she told Reuters.
然而，民意调查专家指出，许多拉脱维亚人对该国分裂性的政治局势感到失望，约有三分之一的人表示尚未决定投票意向或根本不会投票。
Still, pollsters say many Latvians are disenchanted with the country's divisive politics, and one-third say they are undecided or would not vote.
由一位与俄罗斯寡头有联系的富豪创立的民粹主义政党“拉脱维亚优先党”在民意调查中排名第三，并似乎吸引了越来越多的亲俄选民；该党在竞选活动中承诺弥合拉脱维亚族人与俄罗斯族人之间的分歧。
The populist Latvia First party, founded by a tycoon with ties to Russian oligarchs, is running third in opinion polls and also appears to have attracted a growing number of pro-Russia voters, with a campaign promising to bridge gaps between ethnic Latvians and Russians.
民意调查专家阿尼斯·卡克廷斯表示：“拉脱维亚的俄罗斯族人总体上倾向于支持俄罗斯，但在2022年的选举中，他们大多因战争而选择不投票。如果他们这次能够参与投票，那些具有亲俄倾向的政党将会取得好成绩。”
"Latvian Russians are generally pro-Russia, but in the 2022 election, they mostly stayed away, embarrassed by the war," said Arnis Kaktins, a pollster. "If they show up to vote this time, parties with pro-Russian orientation will do well."
拉脱维亚是一个人口约190万的国家，地理位置十分脆弱：它北面和南面分别与欧盟及北约成员国爱沙尼亚和立陶宛接壤，东面则与俄罗斯和白俄罗斯相邻。这种地理位置的脆弱性在道加夫皮尔斯市表现得尤为明显——这座拥有9.4万人口的城镇距离立陶宛24公里、距离白俄罗斯33公里。位于波罗的海沿岸的里加则给人一种“与世隔绝”的感觉。
SOCIETY ON EDGE Latvia, with a population of 1.9 million, is sandwiched between the Baltic Sea and its two European Union and NATO allies Estonia and Lithuania to the north and south, with Russia and Belarus to the east. The precariousness of its geography is clear in Daugavpils, a town of 94,000 located 24 kilometres (15 miles) from Lithuania and 33 km from Belarus. Riga, away on the Baltic shore, feels distant.
在拉脱维亚第二大城市道加夫皮尔斯，俄罗斯族人口约占当地总人口的三分之一；而在里加，俄罗斯族人口则占居民总数的一半。
Ethnic Russians account for about a third of Riga's population and half of residents in Daugavpils, Latvia's second-largest city.
59岁的安泽拉是一名音乐教师，她拒绝透露自己的姓氏。她表示，自己因未能通过拉脱维亚语考试而失去了工作。她希望下一届议会能够废除这一语言要求；自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来，政府出台了许多旨在限制俄罗斯在公共生活中影响力的政策。
Andzela, 59, a music teacher who declined to give her last name, said she lost her job after failing a Latvian language exam. She hopes the next parliament removes the requirement, one of many policies taken since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 aimed at limiting the influence of Russia in public life.
当地记者英娜·普拉沃卡指出，许多人都感到自己被政策制定者忽视了，这种情绪正是“主权力量党”和“拉脱维亚优先党”能够吸引选民的原因之一。
Her sense of being neglected by policymakers is shared by many, and drives the appeal of Sovereign Power and Latvia First, said local journalist Inna Plavoka.
“他们对选民说：‘我们会保住俄语，你们不用学拉脱维亚语，还能再次前往俄罗斯享受廉价燃料和廉价食品，’”她说，“‘我们别再给乌克兰钱了，把钱给这里的老人吧。’”道加夫皮尔斯的活动人士奥尔加·佩特克维察说，她最近加入了“拉脱维亚第一党”，希望该党能够成为左右联盟格局的关键力量，并推动拉脱维亚与俄罗斯建立更务实的关系。
"They tell them: we will save the Russian language, you won't have to learn Latvian, you will be able to go to Russia again for cheap fuel and cheap food," she said. "And let's not give money to Ukraine, give it to elderly people here instead." Daugavpils activist Olga Petkevica said she recently joined Latvia First hoping it becomes a coalition kingmaker and moves Latvia towards a more pragmatic relationship with Russia.
“我并不是说乌克兰不好，也不是说俄罗斯就好……我看看我们的生活，我们过得并不好……是的，他们那边在打仗，但我们这里生活得更差，”她说。
"I am not saying Ukraine is bad or Russia is good ... I look at our lives and we are not well... yes, they have war over there, but we live worse here," she said.
在里加，一家广告公司的60岁财务总监鲁塔·斯拉文斯卡仍未决定投谁一票。“当然，威胁很简单——威胁拉脱维亚的自由。”路透社
Back in Riga, Ruta Slavinska, a 60-year-old finance director at an advertising agency, is undecided who she will vote for. "The threat, of course, is simple – a threat to Latvia's freedom." REUTERS