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德国默茨面临压力,盟友试图回避领导权话题As Germany's Merz feels the pressure, an ally seeks to avoid leadership talk

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在德国总理默茨承受压力之际,一位盟友试图回避领导层更替话题。柏林,10月1日电——德国州长亨德里克·维斯特经常被视为处境艰难的总理弗里德里希·默茨的潜在继任者,但他否认了有关接任的讨论。眼下,执政的保守派正面临史上最严重的选举失利,而维斯特的声望却有所上升。

As Germany's Merz feels the pressure, an ally seeks to avoid leadership talk BERLIN, Oct 1 - Hendrik Wuest, the German state premier often seen as a possible replacement for struggling Chancellor Friedrich Merz, dismisses the leadership talk but his profile has risen as the ruling conservatives deal with their worst-ever election loss.

本周,在极右翼的德国选择党(AfD)于两周内第二次赢得州选举投票冠军后,维斯特率商业代表团对土耳其进行了为期三天的访问,并会见了土耳其总统塔伊普·埃尔多安。

This week, only days after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) topped a state election for the second time in two weeks, Wuest took a business delegation on a three-day visit to Turkey, where he met President Tayyip Erdogan.

德国大州州长出访外国相对常见。自20世纪60年代首批土耳其人以“客籍工人”身份来到德国以来,维斯特所在的北莱茵-威斯特法伦州一直是德国土耳其人口最多的州。

Foreign visits by the premiers of large German states are relatively common and Wuest's state of North Rhine-Westphalia has been home to Germany's largest Turkish population since the first Turks arrived as "guest workers" in Germany in the 1960s.

然而,此行时机恰逢默茨为政治生涯苦苦挣扎、执政联盟内部紧张关系重新浮现之际,这凸显了维斯特在德国政治中的重要地位,也加剧了外界对总理可能更替的猜测。

But the timing of the trip, underlining Wuest's status as a major player in German politics while Merz was fighting for his political life and strains in the coalition have re-emerged, fuelled speculation about a possible change of chancellor.

维斯特及与其共事的工作人员多次否认,他在目前情况下有兴趣接替默茨。

Wuest and officials who work with him have repeatedly denied he has any interest in replacing Merz under current circumstances.

在9月20日东部梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州选举前,维斯特是公开支持默茨的八名保守派州长之一。此前两周,德国选择党曾在萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中获胜,并在这场选举中再次位居榜首。

He was one of eight conservative state premiers who publicly backed the chancellor in the run-up to the September 20 election in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD again topped the election after winning in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier.

不过,选举结果凸显了选民对默茨的反对程度。默茨曾表示,尽管其基民盟(CDU)遭遇了该党历史上最惨重的败选,他仍将坚持领导该党。在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州,基民盟得票率未达到进入议会的门槛。

这位总理因未能兑现承诺的经济改革措施而受到广泛批评;同时,一系列沟通失误进一步加剧了公众对他“脱离现实”的看法,导致他的支持率跌至历史最低点。

However, the results underlined how far voters have turned against Merz, who vowed to carry on despite the worst defeat ever inflicted on his Christian Democrats (CDU), who failed to pass the threshold to enter parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Widely blamed for failing to deliver on promised economic reforms and hampered by a series of communications missteps that have contributed to perceptions of being out of touch with worries over eroding living standards, the chancellor's approval ratings have fallen to record lows.

根据Forsa民意调查机构本周发布的数据,只有11%的受访者对他的工作表现表示满意;即便在他自己的政党支持者中,也只有39%的人对他感到满意。

An opinion poll this week by the Forsa polling institute showed only 11% approved of the job he was doing and even among his own party supporters, only 39% were satisfied.

相比之下,根据数据分析服务ilium的统计,Wuest是德国第三受欢迎的政治人物,排在社会民主党(SPD)国防部长Boris Pistorius以及绿党籍的巴登-符腾堡州州长Cem Ozdemir之后。

Wuest, by contrast, is the third most popular politician in the country behind Social Democrat (SPD) Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Baden-Wuerttemberg state premier Cem Ozdemir, from the Greens, according to ilium, a data analysis service.

根据德国宪法,更换现任总理并非易事;任何政治变革也无法解决该国面临的根本性问题——这些问题包括人口老龄化、乌克兰战争带来的安全威胁,以及德国工业基础逐渐被中国超越的困境。

UNDER SCRUTINY Germany's constitutional system does not make it easy to replace a sitting chancellor. Any change would also not solve deep-seated problems, ranging from an ageing population and war on its doorstep in Ukraine to the erosion of its industrial base which has been fast losing ground to China.

一位德国基民盟(CDU)高级官员表示:“即便更换总理,那些问题依然存在。例如,我们仍需与社会民主党(SPD)这样的联盟伙伴共同推动那些不受欢迎的紧缩措施;而社会民主党本身也处于不确定的状态。”

"The problems — like having to push through unpopular austerity measures in the social security systems with a difficult coalition partner, the SPD, which is also feeling uncertain — would still be there," said one senior CDU politician.

民意调查显示,Wuest所在的州将于明年4月举行选举;如果他能与绿党保持联盟关系,他有可能带领保守派政党赢得2029年的联邦大选。

Opinion polls suggest Wuest, whose state goes to the polls next April, could retain power with his Green coalition partners, potentially putting him in position to take the conservatives into the next federal election due in 2029.

Wuest的执政风格与梅尔茨(Merz)截然不同——梅尔茨虽然倾向于支持企业发展,但在财政政策上持保守立场;许多人认为他的政党对“社会正义”问题不够重视。此前,Wuest也曾批评政府在经济改革方面的沟通方式,认为这些方式过于技术化(即过于依赖专业术语和官僚程序)。

He has struck a markedly different tone from the instinctively pro-business, fiscal conservative Merz who has himself admitted widespread perceptions that his party did not appear to care enough about "social justice". Wuest has previously criticised the government's messaging on economic reforms, which several senior figures in the party see as excessively technocratic.

“仅仅不断强调必须推进已经达成的改革措施是远远不够的,”另一位保守派的州长说道。

"It is not enough simply to keep talking about the need to push through the agreed reforms, as some members of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group and the Chancellor emphasise," said another conservative state premier.

在德国选择党(AfD)的成功引发了许多有移民背景的人的担忧,并导致政府在移民政策上采取更为强硬的态度之际,韦斯特(Wuest)明确表示与德国选择党的反移民言论划清了界限,认为让任何人感到受到个人威胁都是不可接受的。

At a time when the success of the AfD has fed alarm among many people with a migrant background and led to a tougher stance on immigration from the government, Wuest made a clear break with the AfD's anti-immigrant rhetoric and said it was inadmissible to allow anyone to feel personally threatened.

“这让我们作为社会有责任更加努力地去消除这种怨恨与歧视,”他说。

"This makes our task as a society to combat this resentment and discrimination all the more important," he said.

虽然他支持这样的观点:来自叙利亚等战乱国家的难民在和平恢复后应该能够重返自己的国家,但他也指出了来自土耳其等国家的工人在德国所做出的积极贡献(尤其是在德国急需技术工人的时候)。

While supporting the idea that refugees from war-torn countries like Syria could normally return to their countries once peace returned, he noted the positive contribution of workers from countries like Turkey at a time when Germany has sought to attract skilled workers.

“我们一定能够区分这两种情况(即难民与移民的不同需求),”他说。

"We'll manage to make the distinction," he said.