作为她最新一轮民意调查的一部分，珍妮特·布朗试图在阿尔伯塔省10月19日公投之前，了解推动分离主义支持率的因素。她发现，大多数支持分离主义的人并非居住在主要城市之外。这也不是具有特定教育水平人群的多数意见。
As part of her latest round of polling, Janet Brown sought to understand the factors driving support for separatism in advance of Alberta's Oct. 19 referendum. She found most support wasn’t found amongst people who live outside the major cities. It wasn’t the majority opinion of people with a certain level of education.
同样，从事特定类型工作或拥有特定收入水平的人群中，也未出现这种倾向。
Nor was it of those who work a certain type of job or make a certain amount of money.
对“选项2”（即支持分离）支持率最高的群体是谁？是联合保守党的支持者。
The group where the highest levels of support for Option 2 was found? Supporters of the United Conservative Party.
“这对联合保守党和丹妮尔·史密斯来说是个烫手山芋。这部分选民在该问题上意见分裂，”她说。
“It is a hot potato for the UCP and Danielle Smith. It is that part of the voting public that is split on this issue,” she said.
10月19日，选民将被询问阿尔伯塔省是否应继续作为加拿大的一个省，或者阿尔伯塔省政府是否应举行第二次具有约束力的公投，以决定脱离加拿大。
On Oct. 19, voters will be asked whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada, or whether the Government of Alberta should hold a second, binding referendum to separate from Canada.
关注我们对阿尔伯塔省公投的所有报道 了解阿尔伯塔省10月19日公投中10个问题的所有必要信息 在接受调查且表示将投票给联合保守党的受访者中，53%表示他们会投票支持分离选项。40%表示他们会投票留在加拿大。这一比例超过了布朗及其团队研究的所有其他人口统计群体。
Follow all of our Alberta referendum coverage Everything you need to know about the 10 questions in Alberta's Oct. 19 referendum Among those polled who said they would vote for the United Conservative Party, 53 per cent said they’d vote for the separation option. Forty per cent said they’d vote to stay in Canada. That trumped all demographic groups studied by Brown and her team.
与53%支持分离选项的联合保守党支持者相比，只有25%的小城镇受访者表示他们会在10月19日投票选择选项2。
Compared to the 53 per cent of UCP supporters in favour of the separation option, 25 per cent of respondents in small centres said they’d vote for Option 2 on Oct. 19.
28%的高中学历或更低学历者支持分离选项，而30%的专科学历或部分大学学历者持相同观点。
Twenty-eight per cent of those with a high school education or less supported the separation option, while 30 per cent of those with college or some university said the same.
98%的受访者表示，如果今天举行选举，他们会投票给阿尔伯塔新民主党，并且他们希望留在加拿大。
At 98 per cent, nearly all respondents who said they would vote for the Alberta NDP if an election were held today said they wanted to stay in Canada.
“看到联合保守党支持者中这一比例如此之高，我有点惊讶，这一点我完全承认，”特拉维斯·托斯向加拿大广播公司新闻部透露了这些数据。
“I’m a little bit surprised to see them that high in the UCP, very admittedly,” Travis Toews told CBC News of the numbers.
托斯曾于2019年至2023年担任阿尔伯塔省财政部长。他是联邦主义倡议“领导而非离开”的签署人之一。
Toews was Alberta's minister of finance from 2019 to 2023. He’s one of the signatories to the federalist initiative known as Lead Not Leave.
他看到党内存在“挥之不去的伤疤组织”，这与前联邦政府的政策有关。“我认为我们许多人在那几年里都感到幻灭，”托尔斯说。但他辩称，在总理马克·卡尼领导下，情况已有所改善。
He sees “lingering scar tissue” in the party tied to former federal policy. “I think many of us were disillusioned during those years,” Toews said. But he argued conditions have improved under Prime Minister Mark Carney.
“这是完全不同的一天。我们现在拥有……大多数加拿大人支持能源开发和管道建设，”他说。
“It’s a different day. We now have … the majority of Canadians supporting energy development and pipelines,” he said.
“随着时间的推移，我们可以在关键经济问题上与大多数加拿大人达成共识，这些问题不仅将影响阿尔伯塔省未来的繁荣，坦率地说，也将影响整个国家的繁荣。”尽管如此，托尔斯仍看到政治乌云密布。在他看来，党内两派之间的分歧给下届选举带来了挑战。
“Over time, we can agree with a majority of Canadians on key economic issues that not only will affect Alberta's prosperity down the road, but quite frankly, the whole nation's.”Still, Toews sees the political clouds swirling. The divide between the two camps in the party poses challenges in advance of the next election, in his view.
“我认为，如果我们继续沉迷于此——如果中右翼省级政党继续执着于分离和独立——我相信这将使这些政党很难在省级层面组建政府，”他说。
“I think if we continue to have a preoccupation — if right of centre provincial political parties continue to have a fixation with separation and independence — I believe it will make it very difficult for those parties to form government provincially,” he said.
“毫无疑问，这些对史密斯省长来说在政治上是艰难的日子。”周二，红鹿南选区统一保守党省议员杰森·斯蒂芬向加广确认，他已投票支持就该省是否应脱离加拿大举行具有法律约束力的公投。
“These are tough days for Premier Smith politically, for sure.”On Tuesday, Red Deer-South UCP MLA Jason Stephan confirmed to CBC News he has voted in favour of proceeding with a legally binding referendum on whether the province should leave Canada.
“我一直支持就独立举行公投，因为我想迫使渥太华修复那些破损的事物，”他说。
“I've always supported having a referendum on independence because I want Ottawa to be compelled to fix the things that are broken," he said.
他补充道：“我从未说过我希望阿尔伯塔分离。”上个月，阿尔伯塔新民主党在卡尔加里-肖选区赢得了一个保守党铁票仓。
He added, “I've never said that I want Alberta to separate." Last month, the Alberta NDP flipped a conservative stronghold with a win in Calgary-Shaw.
那周晚些时候，阿尔伯塔南部的一个统一保守党选区协会正式敦促党内投票审查省长的领导地位。
Later that week, a UCP riding association in southern Alberta formally urged a party vote to review the premier’s leadership.
“事实是：这种问题极具分裂性。它在社区内、企业内、家庭内，当然也在选区协会内制造分裂，”托尔斯说。
“Here’s the reality: this kind of an issue is very divisive. And it’s divisive within communities, within businesses, within families and certainly within constituency associations,” Toews said.
“我们必须挺过这一关，熬过这次公投。我相信，作为阿尔伯塔人，我们需要团结起来，坚持引领而非离开的原则。”联合保守党内部派系对立位于卡尔加里以南的高伍德选区率先呼吁就省长领导权进行党内投票。要强制进行此类投票，需要总共22个地方协会的支持。
“We need to get through this, past this referendum. I believe that we as Albertans need to rally around the principle of leading, not leaving.”Warring flanks of United Conservatives It was Highwood, a riding south of Calgary, that was first out of the gate calling for a party vote of the premier’s leadership. Forcing such a vote would require the support of a total of 22 associations.
联合保守党选区团体要求审查领导权，分离主义领袖批评丹妮尔·史密斯的团结立场分离主义团体“让阿尔伯塔决定”的共同领导人坦尼娅·克莱门斯是高伍德协会的成员。
UCP riding group demands leadership review as separatist leader criticizes Danielle Smith's unity stance Tanya Clemens, co-leader of the separatist group Let Alberta Decide, is part of the Highwood association.
她告诉加拿大广播公司新闻，虽然她倾向于怀疑民调未能准确反映保守派的声音，但她认为存在一个“庞大而沉默的群体”，他们支持分离，但担心公开表达这一观点会招致强烈反弹。
She told CBC News that while she tends to doubt conservatives are accurately represented in polling, she believes there is a “large, silent group” of members that are in support of separation but who fear backlash should they vocalize that opinion.
她表示，鉴于史密斯坚持阿尔伯塔应留在加拿大的立场，她支持进行领导权审查。
She said she supported the leadership review given Smith’s stance that Alberta should remain in Canada.
克莱门斯说：“我只是想确保，尽管我热爱并尊重她，但如果我们在10月19日赢得了选项2，她就必须对人民负责，兑现这一授权。”
“I just want to ensure that, as much as I love and respect her, that if we win Option 2 on Oct. 19, that she is then accountable to the people to deliver on that mandate,” Clemens said.
“这意味着将在2027年春天举行独立公投。”联合保守党主席罗布·史密斯在评论中写道，可能还有更多选区协会同样支持领导权审查，“但它永远达不到22个。我敢拿我的房子打赌！”
“And that would be to then call the independence referendum for the spring of 2027.”There may be more constituency associations that similarly endorse a leadership review, UCP president Rob Smith wrote in a comment on“But it’ll never make 22. I bet my house on it!” he wrote.
“此外，还有一股选区协会正在致信支持史密斯省长的运动。这个数字在一两周内就会超过22个！而且会越来越高，高得多！”在民调专家珍妮特·布朗看来，史密斯面临的最大挑战来自党内两个派系——那些认为她未充分支持其分离努力的人，以及那些对公投本身感到沮丧的人。“双方……目前都处于激动状态，”她说。
“There’s also a movement of constituency associations writing letters of support for Premier Smith. That number will exceed 22 within a week or two! And it’ll get much, much higher!”It’s within the two flanks of her party — those who feel she has not sufficiently supported their efforts to separate and those frustrated that the referendum is taking place at all — where Smith faces her biggest challenge, in pollster Janet Brown’s view. “Both sides … are agitated right now,” she said.
省长称将在公投后进行讨论 卡尔加里大学政治学教授丽莎·杨指出，民调还显示，史密斯的个人声望下降，因为她的政党在支持率上与反对党新民主党打成平手。
Premier says discussions will follow referendum Lisa Young, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, noted that the poll also suggested that Smith’s personal popularity dipped as her party found itself tied in support with the Opposition NDP.
独家 民调显示丹妮尔·史密斯声望下滑 其政党支持率现与新民主党持平 杨说，虽然省长一贯表示她支持一个统一加拿大中的主权阿尔伯塔省，但选民可能认为她站在了这一问题的另一边。
Exclusive Danielle Smith’s popularity dips as her party now tied with NDP in support: poll While the premier has consistently said she supports a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada, voters may perceive her as being on the other side of the issue, Young said.
从长远来看，她认为统一保守党面临真正的挑战，因为分离主义运动通常希望有一个能够推进其目标的政党。
Over the longer term, she sees a real challenge for the UCP, given that separatist movements typically want to have a political party that can further their objectives.
“我认为在未来几周和几个月里，我们将看到一场关于统一保守党是否会成为一个公开的分离主义政党的斗争，”杨说。
“I think what we’re going to see over the coming weeks and months is a fight over whether the UCP becomes an overtly separatist party,” Young said.
“如果真那样，它就会失去潜在支持者，因为有些保守派倾向的选民不会投票给一个明确的分离主义政党。”
“If it does, it cedes potential support, because there are conservative-minded voters who wouldn’t vote for an explicitly separatist party.”
周三，在一个无关的新闻发布会上，史密斯被问及民调结果以及她计划如何处理党内裂痕。
At an unrelated press conference on Wednesday, Smith was asked about the poll’s findings and how she planned to manage fissures in her party.
“一切将在10月19日决定。到那时，我们将确保与阿尔伯塔人就接受结果及其含义，以及我们将如何继续争取阿尔伯塔省更大的自主权进行非常充分的讨论，”史密斯说。
“It'll all be decided on Oct. 19. So at that point, we're going to ensure that we have a very robust discussion with Albertans about accepting the results and what it means, as well as how we're going to continue to pursue greater autonomy for Alberta," Smith said.
“所以这将是一场与阿尔伯塔人的讨论，也是一场党内内部的讨论。”
“So that is going to be a discussion to have with Albertans, and also a discussion to have internally in our party.”
在一份回应民调结果的声明中，统一保守党发言人表示：“阿尔伯塔人对渥太华有真实的不满，”该党正努力证明加拿大可以为阿尔伯塔人服务。
In a statement responding to the poll results, a UCP spokesperson said “Albertans have real frustrations with Ottawa,” and the party is working to prove that Canada can work for Albertans.
“这意味着要修建一条通往西海岸的管道，取消产量上限和净零电力规则，并让渥太华对执行能源协议负责，”戴夫·普里斯科在一份声明中表示。“仍有更多工作要做，我们将继续捍卫我们的经济和宪法权利，同时为所有阿尔伯塔人恢复希望。”就所有受访者而言，23%的人表示他们会投票支持启动法律程序以举行具有约束力的公投，而72%的人表示他们会投票支持留在加拿大。4%的人表示他们不确定。
“That means getting a pipeline built to the West Coast, scrapping the production cap, the net-zero electricity rules, and holding Ottawa accountable for implementing the energy agreement,” Dave Prisco said in an“There's still more work to do and we will continue defending our economy and constitutional rights while restoring hope for all Albertans.”When it came to all respondents to the poll, 23 per cent said they’d vote to start the legal process to hold a binding referendum, while 72 per cent said they’d vote to remain in Canada. Four per cent said they were unsure.