迪拜，10月1日——消息人士称，如果美国恢复大规模军事打击，伊朗正准备采取更广泛、更有力的回应，同时继续推进外交努力，而伊朗官员私下认为这一外交努力不太可能成功。
DUBAI, Oct 1 - Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks, sources said, while continuing a diplomatic push that Iranian officials privately see as unlikely to succeed.
这一筹划反映出伊朗领导层内部的信念：任何新的美国军事行动都必须遭到比以往更强有力的回应，尽管德黑兰试图通过谈判避免局势升级。
The planning reflects a conviction within Iran's leadership that any renewed US campaign must be met with a stronger response than before, even as Tehran seeks to avert escalation through talks.
据三名伊朗高级官员和一名了解相关讨论的内部人士透露，高级指挥官正在审议相关计划，拟将潜在打击目标扩大到与美国有关联的资产之外，延伸至支持美国军事行动的国家，甚至可能包括中东以外的地点。
Senior commanders are reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US-linked assets to countries that support US military operations and possibly to locations outside the Middle East, according to three senior Iranian officials and an insider familiar with the discussions.
自佩泽希齐扬总统上周从纽约返回以来，指挥官和高级官员一直将重点放在一旦华盛顿再次发动打击时任何回应行动的范围和时机上。
Since President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York last week, commanders and senior officials have focused on the scope and timing of any response if Washington strikes again.
目前尚未作出最终决定，但随着双方均未表现出妥协意愿，筹划工作已经加强。
No final decision has been made, but planning has intensified as neither side shows signs of willingness to compromise.
这些审议是在长达七个月的冲突之后进行的，冲突始于2月28日美国和以色列发动的袭击。尽管4月8日的停火结束了为期40天的战争，但此后敌对行动仍时有发生。
The deliberations follow seven months of conflict that began with US-Israeli attacks on February 28. Although an April 8 ceasefire ended the 40-day war, hostilities have continued sporadically since then.
国际危机组织高级伊朗问题分析师哈米德礼萨·阿齐兹表示，德黑兰仍不确定特朗普总统是会发动另一次重大军事行动，还是会选择更有限的打击，例如对核设施的袭击。
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Tehran remained uncertain whether President Donald Trump would launch another major campaign or opt for more limited attacks, such as strikes on nuclear facilities.
阿齐兹说：“但他们似乎决心不以象征性回应来应对象征性举动，而是升级局势，希望以此重建威慑。”
"But they seem determined not to respond symbolically to a symbolic move and instead to escalate in the hope of reestablishing deterrence," Azizi said.
德黑兰还在权衡长期冲突给特朗普带来的政治风险。民调显示，这场战争在美国民众中不受欢迎，而燃料价格上涨在中期选举前仍是一个令人担忧的问题。
Tehran is also weighing the political risks for Trump of a prolonged conflict. Polls show the war has been unpopular with Americans, while higher fuel prices remain a concern ahead of the midterm elections.
其中两名官员表示，德黑兰已指示黎巴嫩、也门和伊拉克的盟友组织做好准备，一旦美国再次发动大规模袭击，随时支援伊朗。
Two of the officials said Tehran had instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to be ready to support Iran in the event of a renewed large-scale US attack.
他们表示，这一指导方针的目的是为协调一致的应对措施做准备，这些措施的范围“从霍尔木兹海峡延伸到美国在该地区及中东以外的利益”。伊朗外交部尚未立即回应路透社的评论请求。
The guidance, they said, was to prepare for a coordinated response stretching "from the Strait of Hormuz to US interests in the region and outside the Middle East." Iran's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
外交与局势升级尽管伊朗正在为可能爆发的全面战争做准备，但德黑兰仍保留着通过谈判解决问题的渠道。
DIPLOMACY AND ESCALATION However, Tehran is still keeping open a channel for negotiations even as it readies for a wider war.
伊朗在制定这些策略时，还考虑了另一个关键问题：在美方的封锁下（该封锁切断了伊朗的石油出口——而石油是其重要的收入来源），其经济是否能够承受长期的对峙。多年的制裁以及日益严重的经济困境已经给普通伊朗人民带来了巨大的压力。
Underlying Iran's calculations is a second concern: whether its economy can withstand a prolonged confrontation under a US blockade that has cut off oil exports, a critical source of revenue. Years of sanctions and mounting economic hardship have already placed growing pressure on ordinary Iranians.
在上周于纽约举行的联合国大会上，伊朗通过卡塔尔的调解人向美国提出了一个提案；如果该提案被接受，霍尔木兹海峡有望重新开放，整个地区的敌对行动也可能会停止。
At last week's United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tehran submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators that, if accepted, could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities across the region within seven days.
伊朗方面表示，该提案要求双方停止战斗、解除美国对伊朗港口的封锁、解冻至少120亿美元的伊朗资金，并取消对伊朗的石油制裁。
Iranian authorities say the proposal calls for an end to fighting, the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, the release of at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds and a waiver of oil sanctions.
特朗普周六表示他拒绝了这一提案。不过，伊朗官方媒体报道称，美国方面的回复已于周二通过卡塔尔传达到德黑兰，目前该回复正在接受审查中。
Trump said on Saturday he had rejected the proposal. Iranian state media reported, however, that a US response was delivered to Tehran through Qatar on Tuesday and is now under review.
伊朗消息人士称，华盛顿希望将伊朗的核问题纳入谈判范围；但德黑兰坚持认为，只有在伊朗满足了其提出的七项条件之后，核谈判才能开始，否则谈判无法进行。
Iranian sources said Washington wants Iran's disputed nuclear programme included in negotiations, but Tehran insists that the nuclear talks can only begin after its seven conditions are met, not before.
“即使伊朗没有直接拒绝美国的回复，双方继续进行间接谈判，也极不可能达成协议，”一位伊朗官员表示。
"Even if Iran does not reject the US response outright and indirect talks continue, it is very unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement," said one of the officials.
华盛顿中东研究所的伊朗问题专家亚历克斯·瓦坦卡（Alex Vatanka）指出，外交解决冲突的前景仍然十分有限。
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said prospects for diplomacy remained limited.
“伊朗无力承受美国持续封锁的后果，这可能会彻底改变游戏规则，从根本上抽干政权赖以生存的氧气……在这一点上，局势升级是可以想象的，”瓦塔卡说。
"Iran cannot afford continuation of US blockades that could be a major game changer essentially taking the oxygen out of the lungs of the regime...escalation at this point is conceivable,” Vatanka said.
另一场战争的代价 自敌对行动爆发以来，冲突在平静与新一轮打击之间交替，造成数千名平民死亡、伊朗军事能力削弱，并对本已脆弱的经济造成了破坏。
THE COST OF ANOTHER WAR Since hostilities began, the conflict has alternated between lulls and renewed strikes, killing thousands of civilians, degrading Iran's military capabilities and damaging an already fragile economy.
对美国而言，这场战争既未能实现特朗普不断变化的目标，又消耗了五角大楼的导弹库存。
For the United States, the war has failed to achieve Trump's shifting goals while depleting the Pentagon's missile stockpiles.
伊朗及其盟友试图通过将冲突扩大到整个地区、扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输以及增加全球能源市场的风险，来提高华盛顿的代价。
Iran and its allies have sought to raise the cost for Washington by widening the conflict across the region, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and increasing risks to global energy markets.
伊朗向海湾地区的美国盟友发起了无人机和导弹袭击，其在也门的胡塞武装盟友则将沙特利益作为袭击目标。胡塞武装向曼德海峡的推进，对全球能源通道施加了第二个压力点，使这个亲伊朗的组织获得了对红海南部咽喉要道的控制权。
Iran has launched drone and missile attacks against US allies in the Gulf, while its Houthi allies in Yemen have targeted Saudi interests. The Houthis' advance toward Bab el-Mandeb has opened a second pressure point on global energy routes, giving the Iran-aligned group leverage over the southern gateway to the Red Sea.
一名接近决策过程的内部人士表示，军事压力与经济限制的双重打击，正让神职统治者越来越难以维系。对战时动乱的恐惧 这种压力也加剧了领导层对国内稳定的担忧。
An insider close to the decision-making process said the combination of military pressure and economic restrictions was becoming increasingly difficult for the clerical rulers to sustain. FEAR OF UNREST AT WARTIME That strain is also fuelling concerns within the leadership about domestic stability.
一名伊朗前高级改革派官员表示，领导层担心1月爆发的全国性抗议活动会再次上演，当时不断恶化的经济状况引发了全国各地的动荡。当局最终镇压了这些示威活动，导致数千名抗议者死亡。
A former senior reformist Iranian official said the leadership fears a repeat of the nationwide protests that erupted in January, when worsening economic conditions triggered unrest across the country. Authorities ultimately crushed the demonstrations, killing thousands of protesters.
他表示：“在体制承受美国压力和轰炸的同时，面对国内的动荡，可能会对统治集团的合法性构成非常严峻的挑战。”
"Facing unrest at home - while the system is under US pressure and bombs - could pose a very serious challenge to the legitimacy of the ruling establishment," he said.
随着1月份骚乱事件的周年纪念日临近，当局加强了管控措施，同时仍试图维持民众的积极性，鼓励支持政府的人士继续参加每晚的集会。人权组织指出，政府在战争期间加大了对异见人士的镇压力度。
As the anniversary of January's unrest approaches, the authorities have tightened controls while attempting to maintain public mobilisation, encouraging loyalists to return to nightly gatherings. Rights groups say the government has intensified its crackdown on dissent during the war.
国际特赦组织在5月份表示，自冲突爆发以来已有超过6,000人被逮捕；联合国调查人员9月份发布的报告则提到了大规模的逮捕行为、酷刑以及死刑使用频率的增加。
Amnesty International said in May that more than 6,000 people had been arrested since hostilities began, while a September report by UN investigators cited mass arrests, torture and increased use of the death penalty.