Meta推出面向消费者的全新人工智能代理Muse，预计将对在线订阅模式带来颠覆性影响。现在，华尔街认为苹果公司的收入来源可能将面临冲击。
Meta's new consumer artificial intelligence agent, Muse, is expected to play havoc with online subscriptions. Now Wall Street thinks it could be coming next for Apple's revenue streams.
分析人士将苹果整个应用交易平台视为潜在人工智能“去中介化”的目标，因为人工智能代理可能会干扰正常的支付流程和开发人员的激励机制。
Analysts see Apple's entire application exchange platform as a target of potential AI "disintermediation," allowing agents to interfere with regular payment streams and developer incentives.
Needham的分析师于周四猜测，苹果公司受到的收入打击可能高达100亿美元。
The revenue hit to Apple could be as much as $10 billion, analysts at Needham conjectured on Thursday.
Needham的劳拉·马丁（Laura Martin）在报告中写道：“我们计算得出，如果苹果公司在2026财年1230亿美元服务收入中，有40%属于App Store收入，并且其中仅有20%的App Store收入转向Meta零费用的Muse Connectors平台，那么苹果的收入将下降100亿美元，EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）将下降7.5亿美元。这将威胁到苹果的增长率和估值乘数（因为年金类收入流比硬件能带来更高的估值乘数）。”马丁表示，Meta还可能从苹果的生态系统中分流开发者。
"We calculate that, if 40% of AAPL's $123 [billion] of services revs in FY26A were App Store revs, and just 20% of App Store revs moved to META's 0% fee Muse Connectors platform, AAPL's revs would fall by $10B and EBITDA would fall by $7.5B, which would threaten AAPL's growth rate and valuation multiple (since annuity revenue streams command higher valuation multiples than hardware)," Laura Martin at Needham wrote. Meta could also siphon off developers from Apple's ecosystem, Martin said.
她表示：“Meta表示，在推出Muse Connectors平台后的168小时内，就收到了超过1500份开发者申请。我们认为，除非苹果改善开发者的经济收益，否则将面临开发者流失的问题。”
"META stated that it received [more than] 1,500 developer applications within 168 hours of launching its Muse Connectors platform, and we believe AAPL will face developer defections unless it improves its economics for developers," she said.
分析师表示，像Muse这样的人工智能代理对在线订阅服务的审查，可以为消费者省下一大笔钱，但这也会让企业付出沉重代价。
Online subscription reviews by AI agents such as Muse could save consumers – and cost businesses – a lot of money, analysts say.
美国银行分析师塔尔·利亚尼（Tal Liani）于周四写道：“积极审核订阅并建议取消的主动型代理，可以使消费者和小企业更容易淘汰那些过去可能被遗忘的低参与度软件产品。”
"Agents that actively audit subscriptions and recommend cancellations could make it easier for consumers and small businesses to eliminate low engagement software products that may have previously been forgotten about," analyst Tal Liani at Bank of America wrote Thursday.
“如果消费者和小企业大规模采用个人人工智能代理，可能会带来新增的客户流失阻力。”
"If consumers and small businesses adopt personal AI agents at scale, it could introduce incremental churn headwinds."
这种情况尤其可能发生，因为消费者往往会忘记那些他们订阅了却不经常使用的应用和服务。美国根据科技媒体CNET进行的最新年度订阅调查发现，成年人每年在闲置的订阅服务上平均浪费252美元，相当于每月21美元。
That's especially true because consumers tend to forget about apps and services that they'ved to but use infrequently. U.S. adults waste an average $252 a year, or $21 a month, on unused subscriptions, technology publication CNET found in its most recent annual subscription survey .